Tropical Development in the Gulf Mexico continues to look more likely heading into the Labor Day weekend. Most computer models are showing some degree of development of the tropical wave now moving into the Eastern Gulf. The details of development vary greatly as to where the tropical system will take shape and how strong it may get. The general consensus is that a tropical cyclone will be somewhere in the Northwest Gulf by the weekend. Initially, this system will be very slow moving which will bring heavy rains into the Gulf Coast beginning Friday and into the weekend. Depending on how far North the system makes it, some bands of rain may begin to enter Southern Arkansas by Saturday morning. This is what is indicated by one of tropical forecast models.
The system will move very little over the weekend, meandering in The Gulf for a couple of days with very weak steering currents. By Labor Day, a fairly strong cold front will push through Arkansas toward the Gulf. This will bring much welcomed relief from the the Summer heat for Arkansas, and it could mean a couple of things for the Gulf low. One possibility is it will get picked up by the front and begin to accelerate toward the Northeast along the front, which is the first scenario depicted below
Alternatively, the front may not pick it up, leaving it in the Gulf. In this scenario, the system would likely drift West or Southwest around a large high building in behind the front. This could actually be a good scenario for Texas, since they desperately need rainfall.
Bottom line here, its extremely difficult to predict the future of a storm that has not yet developed. Heavy rain along the North Central Gulf Coast is very likely with either scenario, but beyond that the details are still up in the air. Everyone along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas needs to pay close attention this weekend.
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