The outer rain bands of Irene are already beginning to move into The Carolina Coast. Despite a pressure drop overnight, Irene has weakened a bit overnight, with winds down to 105 MPH as of the 11AM EDT advisory making it a category 2 storm. Irene has also completed the turn, with the average motion now toward the North to NNE. Typically, a hurricane will peak in strength before or near the time of recurvature, so significant restrengthening is not particularly likely before it reaches North Carolina. After that time Irene will interact with land and the Center will move over cooler water which will cause weakening as it moves up the Mid-Atlantic Coast toward the NE.
Here's the question: Does Irene actually make landfall as a hurricane?
Forecast models have actually shifted a bit East in the near term, which would take Irene very close to The Outer Banks. The graphic below shows the 11 AM advisory forecast cone compared with the latest models.
Most of the models are now on the right side of the forecast in the 12-36 hour range. It is quite possible that the eye of Irene skirts just offshore from the Outer Banks, although the majority of model solutions still show landfall. Irene will approach The Outer Banks by Saturday Morning likely as a category 2. Irene will accelerate North-Northeastward Saturday afternoon. The question still is whether ir not Irene takes more of an inland track or stays offshore.
An inland track would cause faster weakening than if Irene stays offshore. The water offshore from NJ and Long Island is around 24-25 degrees Celsius (75-77 F) which is still cold enough that Irene would still weaken somewhat before moving into New England if it takes the offshore track. Even if Irene should stay far enough East that it misses NC and the mid-Atlantic coast, it is unlikely to avoid hitting New England. It is quite possible, however, that Irene weakens to a strong tropical storm by that time.
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