Severe Weather Risk

TUESDAY IS A FOX16 SEVERE WEATHER ALERT DAY

A slow moving front moving into the State accompanied by a potent upper level disturbance will bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of the State Tuesday.
Below are the current watches and warnings.

The front will move into Arkansas Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves up along the front. This will trigger another round of storms by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Storms will begin to develop during the late afternoon hours.

The storms will initially pose a hail and tornado risk, transitioning into a more of a wind risk by later in the evening.

Storms may move over the same area through the late evening hours, with the threat for locally very heavy rain and flash flooding.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE Risk area for parts of Central Arkansas Tuesday.

The main severe weather risks will be gusty winds and hail. A tornado threat may also come into play, but this is still somewhat in question. Pay close attention to the weather tonight and tomorrow and be ready to heed any warnings that are issued.

Little Rock smashes temperature records

The incredibly late season cold snap is breaking numerous records for Arkansas. Nearly 5 inches of snow was reported in some spots in Northwest Arkansas this morning marking the first ever officially recorded snowfall in the State in the month of May. 

Cold temperature records are also falling. Little Rock set numerous records today including:

- Tied the record low for the day of 41, set in 1929

- High of 48 set broke the record minimum high temperature for the Month. Previous record was 52 set on May 2 1994.

- Average temperature for the day of 45 broke the record for coldest average daily temperature for the Month of 46.5 set on May 2 1994

More record cold is expected for tomorrow as temperatures drop into the 30s overnight. The record low temperature for the month of May in Little Rock is 39 degrees, set on May 1 1903. The forecast low temperature for Little Rock tonight is 38. 

Record Setting May Snowfall becoming more likely for parts of Arkansas

Snowfall in May in the State of Arkansas just doesn't happen, but that could very well change by Friday morning. John Robinson of the National Weather Service in Little Rock went in search of records of a May snowfall in the State, but could not find a report of snow later than April 30th. On April 30th 1903, a trace of snow was reported in Fayetteville and Harrison. The latest measurable snowfall was recorded on April 24th 1910 in Corning, Arkansas. As for Little Rock, the latest snowfall ever recorded was on April 19th 1983. ALL of these records are in jeopardy. Here is a look at some various computer model snowfall projections through Saturday morning.

(RPM snowfall projection through 8 AM May 4th 2013)

(NAM snowfall projection through 8 AM May 4th 2013)

(GFS snowfall projection through 8 AM May 4th 2013)

As you can see, computer models are in agreement of a record late season snowfall across parts of Arkansas. Although measurable snowfall is not expected for Central Arkansas, a brief snow mix is not out of the question with the cold air in place. The ground is far too warm for any snow to stick though. 

Winter in May

An unusually strong cold front will move through the region, bringing some of the coldest air ever observed in May for parts of Arkansas. The cold front will move through Thursday bringing rain and much colder temperatures. The front will move into Eastern Arkansas on Friday, but rain will linger behind the front as moisture wraps around an upper level low pressure system to our Northwest. Temperatures will become cold enough that rain will likely mix with snow across parts of Northwest Arkansas.

Temperatures behind the front will dip well down into the 30s and 40s across Central Arkansas by Friday morning.

Gusty Northwest winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills down into the 20s. Heavy Jackets and even Winter coats will get at least one more use this season.

Snow accumulations are quite possible across Northwest Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. Friday morning. Computer models vary in the location of the heaviest snow, but a couple of inches for parts of Northwest Arkansas is certainly possible. This would be an historic event since no observing station in Arkansas has ever recorded May snowfall since records began. Below is one computer model projection of possible snowfall.

Snowfall amounts, if any in Arkansas, are still uncertain since it depends highly on the track of the upper level low pressure system.

Cold air will remain in place through the weekend with record cold for Central Arkansas. The all time coldest temperature for May in Little Rock set in 1903 may be tied or even broken by Saturday morning.

Record cold temperatures are likely once again for Sunday morning in many spots. Fortunately, these temperatures should not be cold enough to cause significant damage to outdoor plants in Central Arkansas. High temperatures will remain about 20 degrees below average for this time of year.

Milder, more seasonable temperatures will slowly return by early next week as the upper low finally pulls away.