First freeze of the year

The first freeze of the season is expected tonight across most of Central Arkansas. Temperatures will drop to near or below freezing by early Tuesday morning bringing an end to the growing season. A freeze warning is in effect for most of Central and Southern Arkansas between Midnight and 8 AM Tuesday.

The freeze warning does not include areas that have already experienced a killing freeze this season. Low temperatures will drop to near freezing, with some spots falling down into the 20s, especially sheltered valley locations. Below are computer model forecast low temperatures for Tuesday morning.

Cold nights will be the rule this week with Canadian high pressure dominating weather across the Mid-South. Many locations will drop back to near freezing again Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Early Look at Thanksgiving

Walking through the newsroom and the super market today, I got bombarded with the same question - "What will Thanksgiving be like?"

Before I even begin to answer this question on this blog let me preface with this quick fact.  Forecasts that are 7-14 days out are extremely difficult to nail down and are usually inaccurate.  I know that won't shock you but it's the truth.  The only indications we can decipher is a general wet/dry pattern with a warm/cool air mass.

That being said, let's just take a sneak peak at some of the long range computer models and see if we can get at least an indicator of what's to come to the Natural State.

The European Model and our American model differ in solutions around Turkey Day so this won't be easy.  The European model or ECMWF (image above) brings a bright and cool air mass on Thanksgiving with highs in the 50's.  High pressure dominates the area and keeps it clear around here.

Meanwhile our American friend, the GFS, provides a different picture on the same day.  This model spits out rain showers in Southern Arkansas and gives us warmer temperatures in the 60's.

So which model is right?  They're both wrong but I believe, for now, that the European model has a better track record so I'll lean toward that solution.  Thus, at this moment, it looks mostly clear and cool for Thanksgiving.  Until we get into the weekend we won't know for sure how Thanksgiving will turn out but you asked so there you go...

Sunday Cold Front

Staying mild this weekend by November standards, but a cold front will bring rain, a few storms as well as much cooler air by the end of the weekend into early next week.
Most of the weekend will be dry, breezy and mild ahead of a cold front which approaches by late Sunday. The highest threat of rain will come along with the front Sunday evening into Sunday night.

Some thunderstorms are likely along the leading edge of rain associated with the front. Even though widespread severe weather is not expected, some of the storms may produce some locally gusty winds as they approach. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk for strong storms for most of Central Arkansas late Sunday.

The main risk associated with the storms will be some strong wind gusts. The rain may be heavy at times, but it will not last long enough to produce significant flooding. Given the lack individual storm cells ahead of the main line, the hail and tornado threat is quite low.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the front late Sunday night and into the early part of next week with a return to more of a November feeling. High temperatures will drop from 70s over the weekend, to cool 50s by next week.

Weekend Cold Front

The first weekend of November will start off quite warm with near record high temperatures, but a cold front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms, as well as return to cooler air. High temperatures Saturday will reach the lower 80s with Southwest winds ahead of the front. The standing record high for Little Rock is 83 set in 1909. The record for North Little Rock is also 83 set in 2003. The forecast high for Saturday is also 83, so it's a good bet the record will at least be tied. Much cooler air will follow the front for Sunday, with highs well below average.

The cold front will advance into the State Saturday afternoon, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into Southern Arkansas later in the evening. A few showers will linger behind the front across Central Arkansas. Temperatures will cool off fairly quickly behind the front reaching the 50s before Midnight.

A few storms will likely develop along the front Saturday, but the overall severe weather threat is very low. There is a lack of strong upper air energy and the winds in the upper atmosphere are not conducive to sustaining strong storms. Below are the severe weather threats for thunderstorms Saturday evening.

A stray strong wind gust is not out of the question along with brief heavy downpours.