Early Look at Thanksgiving

Walking through the newsroom and the super market today, I got bombarded with the same question - "What will Thanksgiving be like?"

Before I even begin to answer this question on this blog let me preface with this quick fact.  Forecasts that are 7-14 days out are extremely difficult to nail down and are usually inaccurate.  I know that won't shock you but it's the truth.  The only indications we can decipher is a general wet/dry pattern with a warm/cool air mass.

That being said, let's just take a sneak peak at some of the long range computer models and see if we can get at least an indicator of what's to come to the Natural State.

The European Model and our American model differ in solutions around Turkey Day so this won't be easy.  The European model or ECMWF (image above) brings a bright and cool air mass on Thanksgiving with highs in the 50's.  High pressure dominates the area and keeps it clear around here.

Meanwhile our American friend, the GFS, provides a different picture on the same day.  This model spits out rain showers in Southern Arkansas and gives us warmer temperatures in the 60's.

So which model is right?  They're both wrong but I believe, for now, that the European model has a better track record so I'll lean toward that solution.  Thus, at this moment, it looks mostly clear and cool for Thanksgiving.  Until we get into the weekend we won't know for sure how Thanksgiving will turn out but you asked so there you go...