2011 wrapped up on a very quiet note with dry conditions and mild temperatures, but 2011 was anything but inactive. It began with a very snowy winter, with over 14 inches of snow recorded in Little Rock during January and February combined. That's over FOUR times the average snowfall for those 2 months. After a snowy winter came a wet spring with several rounds of severe weather. 67 tornadoes occurred in April and May across Arkansas, including two EF3 tornadoes and one EF4. 12 people were killed in Arkansas by the tornadoes, with other fatalities due to straight line winds and flooding. The total number of tornadoes for 2011 stands at 75, which is more than twice the annual average. This is not a record, however, as more tornadoes have been recorded as recently as 2008 when 81 tornadoes touched down. The all time record for most tornadoes in a calendar year in Arkansas stands at 107 set in 1999. The graph below shows the 3 years with the most number of tornadoes in Arkansas

Spring 2011 was also very wet, with serious flooding. Severe flash flooding occurred the morning of May 1st after some spots received over 8 inches of rain in less than 24 hours. Morgan in Pulaski County received 8.7" of rain in 24 hours. The White River hit record crests later in the month, forcing the closure of I-40.

When the rain stopped, that's when the heat began. The Summer heat reached its climax on August 3rd, when Little Rock broke its all time high temperature record hitting 114 degrees. The previous record was 112. Heat Index values soared to as high as 120.

Flooding rains returned once again in November with over 14.5" of rain in Little Rock for the month. This broke the record for the wettest November on record. December was not only wet, but also snowy. Little Rock had 1.6" of snow from late on the 6th to the morning of the 7th. The monthly rainfall totaled 7.74", barely more than half inch away from cracking into the top 10 wettest Decembers on record. 

Despite the very dry and hot summer, Little Rock still had well above normal rainfall for the year with a total  of 60.23", which is over 10" above average.

Quiet, but much cooler weather is on the way for the beginning of 2012.

Mild Finish to 2011

Most of this December was cloudy, wet and very chilly.  You would think that we would conclude the year on this repetitive weather pattern but today is just the beginning of a long stretch of mild weather for the Natural State.

The rest of the work week will be pleasant and sunny with temperatures climbing to the 60's.  Even next week does not look that bad.

           (GFS showing winds at 500mb or around 20,000 feet above the ground. Fast winds stay north)


The reason for the unseasonably mild air relates to the upper level flow.  The jet stream looks to stay zonal and remain up close to the northern border. For those who don't follow weather closely, this means no major cold arctic blasts for us.  Don't get me wrong, we will have a brief snap of cool air, like the day after New Year's but it won't last long.

In terms of precipitation, we won't see a whole lot in the coming weeks.  The reason lies with the Gulf of Mexico not opening it's moisture flow to the southern states.

                                    (GFS model shows a mild temperatures for the Cotton Bowl...Jan. 6th)

Will this kind of pattern lasts all the way up to the Cotton Bowl?  It sure looks like it.  So you may not get a lot of use for those hog sweaters next year.

I'll have more in-depth look at the weather for Dallas as we get closer to the big bowl game.  Until then have the sunglasses ready to go and HAPPY NEW YEAR.

Where's the Winter Cold?

So far this winter season, there has not been any widespread outbreak of cold air across the Lower 48, and no significant arctic intrusion is forecast right through New Years. The bitterly cold, arctic air is locked up in Canada, keeping Northern parts of the Country unusually mild heading into Christmas. The reason for the lack of cold is the current upper atmospheric pattern which now features a jet stream that is fairly West to East across North America. Such a pattern is called "Zonal Flow", and is not conducive for cold, winter like weather.

 

So far this season, there have only been 2 significant snow storms, one of which was the October snow in New England, and the other that hit the Southwest and Southern Plains earlier this week. In order to bring down the real cold air from Canada, the jet stream needs to buckle allowing storm systems to bring the Arctic air South. A pattern that drives the cold air South involves something called High Latitude Blocking, in which high pressure builds in the upper levels over parts The Arctic. Such a pattern sends the jet stream into the high latitudes and back South, allowing the Arctic Air to penetrate into the lower latitudes. 

 

There are no indications of such a pattern setting up through Early January, keeping the chances of a large blast of cold air quite low over the next couple of weeks.

Dreaming of a White Christmas?

For those of you dreaming of a white Christmas, well, that dream could be a reality this year.  Let me explain...

Recently, several computer models have shown a deep upper level disturbance reaching into the Central Plains sometime before Christmas.  If this system develops, as suggested, then somewhere between Iowa, Missouri or Arkansas there will be a quick blast of snow.

Now the timing of this event has been fairly consistent.  All of the models I've seen show the upper level disturbance coming in Christmas Eve morning (that's Saturday for those keeping score at home.)  The big dilemma is where exactly this system is going to go. 

                    (GFS model showing snow across Missouri/Iowa Christmas Eve morning)
More models show the snow missing Arkansas and slamming into Missouri or Iowa.  So you would think that I would go that route but instead the more consistent model lately, the European model, is thinking more along the lines of Arkansas getting the snow.  For now, I'm more incline to favor the snowy outlook for Arkansas since the European's track record is more reliable at this stage of the game. 

                         (European model displays snow falling in Arkansas Christmas Eve morning)\

That doesn't mean that there is a 100% chance of snow for Christmas Eve it just means you need to be on alert if you plan on traveling that day.

If we were lucky enough to get several inches of snow in Central Arkansas it would stick on grassy areas and some it would last through Christmas Day.  Hence, we'd have a white Christmas for a change.

                         (GFS model showing chilly light showers across SE Arkansas Christmas Day)

As for Christmas Day, it looks like that forecast is on track to be partly sunny with cold temperatures in the 40's.  Only sign of precipitation is in liquid form and down in Southeast Arkansas and into Texas.
 
Needless to say, make sure to tune in this week to FOX 16 for the latest details about the potential for snow this weekend.

Mid Week Front

Wednesday will feature a little hint of Spring with temperatures in the 60s, but don't get used to it. A cold front will push through Central Arkansas tonight with a line of rain and a few storms. Although a few spotty showers will be possible during the evening hours, the main line of rain will reach Central Arkansas shortly after midnight into the early hours of Thursday.

Although some storms are likely, severe weather is not expected. The main inhibiting factor is lack of heating ahead of the front as it pushes through during the overnight hours. The bulk of the upper air energy will also stay far to the North. The end result is a minor threat of some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall

Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the range of about half an inch to an inch in some spots through Thursday, keeping the risk of flooding low. The band of rain will likely stall across Southeast Arkansas for a time Thursday morning resulting in a band of heavier amounts of 1 to 2 inches.

 

X-mas Sneak Peak

Everybody keeps asking me the same question, so I thought I might as well blog about it.  Here are my early impressions of how Christmas will go down in Central Arkansas.

First let me say a little disclaimer here.  These predictions are very, very early and are by no means the official forecast for Christmas.  It's just an interesting sneak preview at what could be coming to Arkansas on the big holiday.

Now that we have that formality out the way lets get to it.  From all the models I've seen it appears we will not have snow for Christmas (sorry folks) instead, it looks as though the holiday will be rather bright and chilly.

                               (GFS model showing cold showers early Christmas Eve morning)

                                  (GFS model showing a dry, cool pattern for Christmas morning)

Most long range models hint at a cold front swinging through the state early Christmas Eve and that will give us a chance at precipitation.  It is still way to soon to tell if we'll see any snowflakes from the front.  Only time will tell on that detail.  Later Christmas Eve we appear to dry out in Arkansas and cool down rapidly.

By Christmas day a big dome of high pressure will overrun the state causing for a bright sunny weather to come into the region.  In terms of temperatures we should be below normal at this point and into the 30's/40's.

There you go folks. A very early look at Christmas in Arkansas.  Be sure to keep checking out the blog and the forecast to see if indeed this kind of weather is coming to the Natural State.  Have a great week and stay warm out there.
                    

Snow in Central Arkansas during the Month of December does happen from time to time, but measurable snowfall is definitely the exception rather than the rule. The snow this week was the first measurable December snowfall in Little Rock since 2005, and this is now the snowiest December since 2004. This is actually the second snowfall for parts of the State this season, as several inches of snow accumulated across Northeast Arkansas following the Thanksgiving Holiday.
The Little Rock area has actually had more snow than parts of the Country that are used to heavy snowfalls. As of December 7th, Little Rock measured 1.6" of snow, that's more than Cleveland, Ohio and Buffalo, NY have had COMBINED so far this season!

First Snow Hits Central Arkansas

 The first snow of the season hit Central Arkansas Tuesday night into early Wednesday dumping 1 to 2 inches of snow across many parts of the area. Accumulations over an inch and up 2 inches were recorded across Northeast and Eastern Arkansas as well.

 

The snow stopped falling by the morning commute Wednesday, but icy spots mainly on bridges and overpasses caused significant delays and traffic headaches, as well as numerous accidents. By the mid-morning, sunshine returned to central Arkansas. The visible satellite view from this morning shows the snow on the ground across parts of the State.

A Few Flakes?

Some snow is on the way to Central Arkansas, but don't get too excited about the prospect of a snow day or building a snowman. A fast moving upper air disturbance will quickly scoot across The State Wednesday morning, bringing a few rain and snow showers to the area. Our Future Forecast model run from Monday evening shows a mix of light rain and snow showers for Wednesday morning.

 

The upper system will have very little moisture to work with, and as a result precipitation is likely to be scattered and very light. In addition, temperatures will be just above freezing allowing any snow the does fall to essentially melt as it hits the ground. As a result, no significant accumulation is expected. Below are the forecast snow amounts from our high resolution computer model. Most areas will receive little or no snowfall, with only a fraction of an inch at most in a few spots.

 

Drier will move in late Wednesday finally clearing out our skies for the end of the week, although temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend. 

Soggy Weather Pattern

                                                   (Rainfall amounts as of 2pm Sunday)

Light to moderate rain continues to fall all over the Natural State today.  With a slow moving cold front and several upper level disturbances, there will be additional rainfall to come for the next 24 hours.

              (Our FOX 16 weather model shows the biggest accumulation of rain in SE Arkansas)

Forecasting the amount of rain in the future is tough but judging by the latest computer runs there is still the potential for additional 2-4" to arrive tonight and into Monday.  Of course, with this amount of rain possible there is the concern for flash flooding on local roadways and creeks.

Besides the onset of the wet weather, our temperatures have been going in the wrong direction.  Instead of warming up in the morning and afternoon, our thermometers are cooling down.  Temperatures will continue their downward spiral to the mid 40's tonight.  As for tomorrow, temperatures won't budge that much in fact they could very well stay in the low-mid 40's the entire day.

                                  (Snowfall model showing no significant winter weather ahead)

                        (Model showing a brief period of wet snow in Northern Arkansas on Monday.)

Toward the northern tip of Arkansas there could be enough cooling in the upper levels of the atmosphere to sustain a wet snowflake late on Monday.  However, the trend for most models now is to leave out the wintry mix out all together.  I happen to agree with this assessment and do not anticipate any major wintry weather to affect your travel toward the northern border on Monday.  If snow is able to fall in this region it will likely not stick due to warm ground below.

Once we're past Monday, we'll dry out and stay chilly all week long with thermometers struggling to get out of the 40's.  A couple days this week will be in the 50's.  We'll have more coverage on the wet weather ahead tonight on FOX16 news at 9pm.

Heavy Rain Potential

After a record wet November, more heavy rainfall is likely during the first week of December. A strong cold front along with a slow moving upper air disturbance will bring several round of rain beginning Saturday night through early Tuesday morning. Severe storms will not be a concern with this system, but because of the slow movement, significant rainfall totals are likely in some spots. Models have been consistently showing the heaviest bands of rain from South Central Arkansas into Northeast Arkansas. Below is our high resolution total rainfall forecast through Monday at 11PM showing widespread 3 to 5 inch amounts.

 

A different high resolution computer forecast shows a similar outcome, with 3 to 6 inches across most of Central Arkansas through Monday evening

Much colder air will filter in behind the front with temperatures falling into the 40s on Sunday and remaining in the lower 40s Monday. Temperatures will be even colder across Northwest Arkansas, where a change over to snow is possible Monday afternoon. Depending on when the change over occurs, significant accumulations are possible in some spots especially around Fayetteville and Bentonville. Below is a computer model forecast showing the rain snow line through NW Arkansas by Monday afternoon.

The rain/snow line will continue to push toward Central Arkansas into Tuesday morning, however, by the time it gets here most precipitation will be coming to an end limiting the potential for accumulations. Although significant Wintry weather is not likely for Central Arkansas at this time, the forecast should be carefully monitored over the next couple of days