Heavy Rain Potential

After a record wet November, more heavy rainfall is likely during the first week of December. A strong cold front along with a slow moving upper air disturbance will bring several round of rain beginning Saturday night through early Tuesday morning. Severe storms will not be a concern with this system, but because of the slow movement, significant rainfall totals are likely in some spots. Models have been consistently showing the heaviest bands of rain from South Central Arkansas into Northeast Arkansas. Below is our high resolution total rainfall forecast through Monday at 11PM showing widespread 3 to 5 inch amounts.

 

A different high resolution computer forecast shows a similar outcome, with 3 to 6 inches across most of Central Arkansas through Monday evening

Much colder air will filter in behind the front with temperatures falling into the 40s on Sunday and remaining in the lower 40s Monday. Temperatures will be even colder across Northwest Arkansas, where a change over to snow is possible Monday afternoon. Depending on when the change over occurs, significant accumulations are possible in some spots especially around Fayetteville and Bentonville. Below is a computer model forecast showing the rain snow line through NW Arkansas by Monday afternoon.

The rain/snow line will continue to push toward Central Arkansas into Tuesday morning, however, by the time it gets here most precipitation will be coming to an end limiting the potential for accumulations. Although significant Wintry weather is not likely for Central Arkansas at this time, the forecast should be carefully monitored over the next couple of days