Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Cold Blast for December


I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact that we got a half foot of snow not too long ago.  If you didn't hear, Jonesboro and other parts of Northeast Arkansas literally got pounded by  wintry precipitation.

Now that were basking in the sunshine you would think our weather pattern would calm down...but oh no good ol' Mother Nature has plans for Arkansas.

The rest of the work week will be fine and sunny but going into the first few days of December...things get interesting.

                                            (European Model showing a wet, chilly Sunday)

A deep upper level trough will carve out the middle of the country.  On the eastern fringe, a cold front will stall out across the Natural State.  As a few disturbances overlap the front we'll see several rounds of rain and storms push through our region.

                                   (European Model showing another good dose of rain Monday)

When it's all said and done, we could be looking at a soaking event for Central and Southeast Arkansas.  Preliminary outputs show anywhere from 2 to 4" of rain out this system ahead. 

Rainfall is fine but when you add cold air to the mix...that's when things get really interesting.  As the cold front slowly slides through Arkansas late Monday night there maybe and I say maybe, a chance that the precipitation turns over briefly to a sleet or freezing rain mix.  It's too early to speculate when and where but we need to be on alert just in case.  If this wintry mix is able to fall it shouldn't impact the Monday evening commute, instead Tuesday morning will be something to watch.

                                    (Temperatures projected by GFS on December 11th...yikes!)

If that doesn't perk your interest in the weather this bit of information might do it.  Several long term model runs are showing a gradual warm up late next week (as you would expect) then we have to gear up for a huge blast of ARCTIC AIR.  How cold are we talking about here?  Try high's barely in the 30's...10's and 20's for the rest of the country.  Now that's cold!

Bottom line this La Nina pattern is not living up to expectations. We were suppose to be warmer than normal this time of the year.  I guess you can say that forecast is off by a mile.

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