Monday, November 14, 2011

Soaking November Rain



Upper 70's in November?  Yes, we've already done it once and we'll do the same it again today as a southerly wind keeps an abnormally mild air mass in Arkansas.

Of course, we're a week and half away from Turkey Day so this type of weather won't last long...will it?

If you look at the temperatures to our north, there is a cold front lingering in the Central Plains.  Temperatures there are struggling to get out of the 50's.  All it takes is a low pressure system to drag it over to our neck of the woods...

                          (Weather model showing rain arriving as soon as midnight tonight)

                          (NAM model showing rain moving through Northern Arkansas on Tuesday)


This won't happen until Tuesday.  The timing of the rain is still in question as were waiting for an upper level disturbance to slide into place tomorrow.  Majority of the model runs I've seen show the bulk of the rain sliding in Tuesday afternoon and lasting through the night.  I'm generally on board with this idea but I wouldn't be surprise to find rain puddles as I wake up early Tuesday morning.

                                (Meteogram of various models showing 1-2" of rain tomorrow)


Once the rain arrives, it won't be an hour event...or two.  There are several signs that we're looking at a much needed soaking rain lasting several hours.  As you can see in the meteogram above, almost every single model out there is squeezing out  1-2" of rain in Little Rock and Central Arkansas.  Hopefully that is the case because we need in this region.

After the soggy, wet weather rolls through our temperatures will take a nose dive into the 50's.  We'll struggle to get back to the 60's with a sunny sky above us.

Once the weekend arrives the clouds will make a come back while temperatures surge well up to the 60's and low 70's.


EARLY THANKSGIVING FORECAST:  We're a week out from the big feast, big shopping day and one of the biggest traveling days of the year so how will the weather hold up?

The weather for Thanksgiving week looks very interesting.  Long range models hint at another cold front sliding into the state a couple days before Thanksgiving.  If this system is strong enough, we could be looking a stormy outlook around the busiest air travel days of the year (oh the headaches at the airport are already forming).  Once Thanksgiving rolls around we'll probably see a good dose of sunshine but temperatures will be considerably cooler in the 50's and 60's.

I want to emphasize this is just a primarily forecast.  There will be subtle changes coming in the next few days so be sure to keep checking on the blog for the latest developments.

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