Major Cold Snap

For all of those who said "it doesn't feel like November" will quickly learn that Mother Nature has a cruel sense of humor.

Instead of it feeling like November, our weather will almost resemble something like January or February.  Here's what I mean by that...

Today a strong cold front will slice through the state and knock out whatever warmth that was felt earlier in the week.  Sure we'll stay in the low 60's for a chunk of the day but it won't feel that warm with the clouds and rain showers to come this afternoon.

Once the front crosses the eastern border this evening we'll dry out and steadily drop to the 50's then the 40's.

Get used to the 40's folks because after Saturday we'll be stuck here for a while. Thanks to the clouds wrapping around this unsettled weather pattern we won't climb out of the 40's on Sunday (BRRRRR!) so have those winter coats ready to go. 

                                      (Model showing flurries in Northern Arkansas on Sunday)


Before I go any further I want to say...yes...the rumors are true.  There is a tiny possibility that Northern Arkansas could see a snowflake late Sunday.  As cold air continues to rush into Arkansas on Sunday, the atmosphere could very well squeeze out a flake.  There won't be any accumulation but folks who live north of Clinton could be in for a little treat.

Sunday night we'll stumble to the 30's for extended period of time before trying to climb back to the mid 40's.

               (Model showing upper level flow at 500mb.  Notice the low cutting off from the flow)

Onto the model mayhem that ensues...For the last several days, every single model out there was showing different solutions on how the weather would unfold early next week.  Now that I have spent countless hours pulling my hair and getting more information here is how I think it will go down.

An upper level low will cut off from the main flow briefly on Monday.  The low looks to cutoff in Mississippi leaving Arkansas underneath a blanket of clouds and cold air.

                                 (Weather model showing snowflakes in Memphis on Monday.)

There were a few model runs that tried to give us an inch of snow on Monday but you can throw that idea right out the window.  The low will cutoff too far to the east for this to occur.  Secondly the air will not be that cold in the low layers to sustain it.  Majority of the model runs show dew point temperatures (measurement of moisture) being at 32 or slightly above so that is tale-tell sign that snowflakes aren't in the cards for Central Arkansas.  If there is any shot of a few snowflakes it will be closer to the cut-off low say near Memphis.

If for some reason, the models decide to shift the cutoff low radically to the left then we need to alter the forecast to mention a few flakes, but I haven't seen this solution for a while so I think it's safe to say Little Rock won't see a wintry mix from this system.

After Monday, we'll slowly watch the sunshine come into picture and temperatures will improve to the 50's for the remainder of the work week.