Monday, December 19, 2011

Dreaming of a White Christmas?



For those of you dreaming of a white Christmas, well, that dream could be a reality this year.  Let me explain...

Recently, several computer models have shown a deep upper level disturbance reaching into the Central Plains sometime before Christmas.  If this system develops, as suggested, then somewhere between Iowa, Missouri or Arkansas there will be a quick blast of snow.

Now the timing of this event has been fairly consistent.  All of the models I've seen show the upper level disturbance coming in Christmas Eve morning (that's Saturday for those keeping score at home.)  The big dilemma is where exactly this system is going to go. 

                    (GFS model showing snow across Missouri/Iowa Christmas Eve morning)
More models show the snow missing Arkansas and slamming into Missouri or Iowa.  So you would think that I would go that route but instead the more consistent model lately, the European model, is thinking more along the lines of Arkansas getting the snow.  For now, I'm more incline to favor the snowy outlook for Arkansas since the European's track record is more reliable at this stage of the game. 

                         (European model displays snow falling in Arkansas Christmas Eve morning)\

That doesn't mean that there is a 100% chance of snow for Christmas Eve it just means you need to be on alert if you plan on traveling that day.

If we were lucky enough to get several inches of snow in Central Arkansas it would stick on grassy areas and some it would last through Christmas Day.  Hence, we'd have a white Christmas for a change.

                         (GFS model showing chilly light showers across SE Arkansas Christmas Day)

As for Christmas Day, it looks like that forecast is on track to be partly sunny with cold temperatures in the 40's.  Only sign of precipitation is in liquid form and down in Southeast Arkansas and into Texas.
 
Needless to say, make sure to tune in this week to FOX 16 for the latest details about the potential for snow this weekend.

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