Hurricane Irene is getting stronger tonight and is about to make a turn more toward the Northwest on Wednesday. By Thursday, Irene is going to take a more Northerly direction as it begins to move through a pronounced weakness in the sub-tropical ridge as shown by the above graphic. The big question going forward is whether or not Irene makes landfall, or skirts the coast offshore. What ultimately happens will be determined by the strength of the Atlantic High.
Above is the forecast steering flow for Sunday. If the high is strong enough Irene will be forced closer to the coast or onshore. A slightly weaker high or if the high is positioned a little farther east, would mean Irene would stay offshore, as indicated by some of the model guidance.
The above graphic shows the 11PM EDT forecast cone compared with with the Tuesday evening model runs. Note that models are still on the right side of the cone for the day 4-5 time frame. NC outer banks and New England need to pay close attention.
No comments:
Post a Comment