Irene became a hurricane late last night as it moved across Puerto Rico. As of 10 CDT this morning, winds had increased to 80 MPH. Yesterday, we discussed how the land areas of of Hispanola and Cuba could have a significant weakening effect on Irene, however, it now appears the center will likely remain offshore from the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Below is the 10AM CDT NHC forecast track with cone of uncertainty for the next couple of days.
This means a couple of things for the future of Irene. First of all, Irene will get stronger as it remains over warm water. Irene will continue to intensify as it remains primarily over water, now forecast to reach category 3 intensity by the time it reaches The Bahamas later this week. This stronger, more Northerly solution in the short term has significant consequence in the long term. The stronger system will be more influenced by the weakness in the sub-tropical ridge near the East Coast, allowing for a more pronounced turn to the North. The forecast track has been significantly shifted to the East this morning, with a greater threat now for The Carolinas.
The shaded area in the graphic above shows the newer 11am forecast cone compared to the older 5am forecast which is outlined in yellow. The East Coast of Florida is still in the cone, but the trend continues to be for Irene to move along the Northern and Eastern side of the forecast. Computer models continue to shift more North and East, indicating Irene may be a threat to a large portion of the east coast. Also note that the models are still somewhat more concentrated on the right/East side of the 5 day forecast cone.
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