Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Watching the Tropics Closely


I am growing a little concern about what is taking place in the long range models.  In the last several days, the models have depicted a large hurricane forming in the Atlantic Ocean and blasting the southeast coast of the U.S. by late August.  Normally, I would disregard these as false anomolies but we have consistantly seen the same kind of results from the same models.


                                            (GFS model showing major hurricane around August 28th)


                                          (Another run of GFS model showing the hurricane hitting on August 30th)


                                         (European Model showing a strong tropical system east of Florida by Aug. 25)
So what can we take from all of this?  Not much for right now.  Usually models are not reliable this far out in advance, so at this point, we're going to keeping a close eye on the tropics and see if indeed these long range models are picking up on something.  Until then relax and keep tuning to FOX 16 for the latest developments.

Lets get back to our weather in Arkansas shall we...

TOMORROW: A weak (I mean weak) frontal boundary is going to approach from the north on Wednesday.  According to most high resolution models we'll see the front sag in Northern Arkansas.  This will be the main focus point for small showers and thunderstorms to form off of during the afternoon hours.  Since our rain coverage will not be high tomorrow and our winds will start coming out of the south/southwest, our temperatures are going to rise to the mid 90's.  In southwest Arkansas I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple thermometers flirt with 100 degrees.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The frontal boundary washes out but a few upper level disturbance will slide through portions of Arkansas.  This situation will leave the door open for a few chances at brief rain showers and thunderstorms.  Besides that we'll continue to stay pretty hot in the mid-upper 90's.

WEEKEND:  Rain chances only exist for the northern part of the state.  Otherwise it will be hot outside with high's in the upper 90's.

That's it for now.  Keep checking on the blog for the latest developments in the tropics.

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