Irene Taking Aim At East Coast

Hurricane Irene is about to pass East of Nassau Bahamas. Nassau recently reported a wind gust of 101 MPH at the Templeton Global Advisors Limited Weatherbug station
While tropical storm force winds will stay offshore from Florida, Irene will turn its attention to North Carolina over the weekend. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted somewhat West, which puts Eastern NC, including The Outer Banks, at risk for landfall.



The forecast in the longer range remains tricky, as just a small difference in the exact track will make a huge difference of what happens along the Mid-Atlantic into New England.




A track on the left side of the cone would result in Irene staying over land, causing considerable weakening as it heads toward the Northeast. In this case, Irene would likely weaken to a tropical storm before approaching D.C. and would continue to weaken as it pushed toward New York. A track on the ride side of the cone would result in Irene staying offshore and not making landfall until reaching Maine or Maritime Canada. In that case, Irene would stay stronger, but weaken over cold waters before reaching land. The in between solution pushes Irene almost right up the coast. Although Irene would weaken somewhat, it would still remain a hurricane as it approaches New Jersey and NY, likely as a category 1. This is the worst possible outcome since it would bring hurricane or strong tropical force winds to almost the entire Mid-Atlantic and N.E. Coast.