The shaded area shows the new 11am advisory compared to previous forecast track from 5am. Once again, the track is shifted East, with Florida now entirely out of the cone. Irene is a large system though, and tropical storm force winds will likely brush the FL coast, especially if Irene moves on the left side of the cone. It is more likely, however that Irene will move somewhat right/East of the track. Model guidance has also shifted East and is more tightly clustered than in previous runs indicating higher confidence. Some of the guidance is now even indicating that the center of Irene may not actually make landfall in the US, although Irene's large size would still mean heavy rains, strong winds, and beach erosion for the Mid-Atlantic into New England even if there is no actual landfall.
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