Future Lee and The Gulf Coast

The system in the Gulf that will likely become tropical storm Lee will begin to spread rain across the Gulf coast today and through the Labor Day weekend. This is likely to be a very slow moving system caught in weak steering currents. Some computer models showing the soon to be Lee stalling off the Gulf Coast through the middle of next week.


The main threat appears to be a prolonged heavy rain event. This is the forecast rainfall by the hydro-meteorological prediction center through 7AM Tuesday, showing rainfall totals well over 10" for much of SE Louisiana and the MS Gulf Coast.


The strength of the former system is somewhat questionable. Initially, upper winds will not be very supportive for rapid or significant strengthening, but if the center if circulation remains well offshore into the weekend, more significant development will be possible, raising concerns for Coastal flooding. An air force aircraft will investigate the Gulf system this afternoon to determine whether or not a depression is already forming.

As of now, heavy rains appear to remain South of Arkansas as a cold front will push through by Labor Day, but will have to watch the Northward movement of this system.