A Week Filled with Strong Storms

This last week of February is shaping up to be quite interesting in the Natural State.

At this hour we're watching a storm system develop in the Pacific Northwest and progressing to the southeast.  As this disturbance wraps up and becomes stronger, a rather intense surface low will emerge in the Central Plains.

Underneath the low pressure will be a cold front and a rather good supply of gulf moisture to work with it. Out ahead of the cold front there will be spinning winds aloft. Inevitably this means severe weather is possible for the Mississippi Valley and Arkansas.

Judging by the computer models, the worst threats from these potential storms will be short-lived tornadoes, damaging winds and small hail.

                         (The Significant Tornado Parameter index shows the best chance at tornadoes in Western Arkansas.)

As more data pours into the FOX 16 weather center, it is more apparent that Western Arkansas has the best opportunity for seeing the worst out of this storm system.  It is in this region where there will be better lift and rotation in the atmosphere.  The window of opportunity for these strong storms to develop will be between 6 P.M. Tuesday through midnight.  Cities that need to be pay close attention to the weather are Mena, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Arkadelphia and Harrison.

Before everybody battens down the hatches, there is an inhibiting factor that may play a huge role in preventing these severe thunderstorms from developing.  One very important ingredient that seems absent from this setup is instability (the ability for storms to sustain lift).  Almost every weather model paints a cloudy, wet scenery in Arkansas before the storm system gets going late Tuesday evening.  This kind of environment is definitely not ideal for thunderstorm development.  In reality, you need to warm up or cook the atmosphere so to speak before severe weather can form and we're not seeing that from the models.

In essence, if we see clouds and showers most of Tuesday then our severe chances will be low.  On the other hand, if we're able to hold off on the showers and see the clouds reveal a little sunshine before Tuesday evening rolls around we may be in for a long night.

If that wasn't enough, we're not done with the threat of severe weather this week.  On Friday, Mother Nature looks to send another potent system our way.   

Keep checking back with FOX 16 over the next couple days for more details about the severe weather potential for this week.