Chance of More Snow?

The buzz around the weather department is snow...again...but before you go out to buy milk and bread you might want to read the full details about this upcoming weather pattern.

This weekend a surface low will hug the gulf coast providing a good blanket of rain and storms around it.  Arkansas will be on the northern fringe of this system and will receive a good soaking rain south of Little Rock.  As cool air is brought in from the back side of the system late Saturday night, there are discussions saying there is an opportunity for snow in Central Arkansas.

                                    (FOX 16 weather model shows a dusting of snow is possible in E/NE AR)
              
Well, I hate to spoil the fun here but there is very, very low chance that we'll see a snowflake in Little Rock and most of Central Arkansas. 

                                           (GFS weather model showing no snow for the entire state.)
                         
The main issue with this upcoming disturbance is the lack of arctic air near the surface of the atmosphere. As we look at the data, we keep noticing that the air coming around the back side of the low is not that cold.  In fact, most model runs do not show accumulating snow whatsoever because the air is too warm to sustain it (check out the image above).

Let's say for argument's sake, that the air is briefly cold enough to sustain snow.  Then the most likely place for accumulation will be east and northeast of Little Rock - not in the heart of the state.  Last but not least, if the snow does happen to fall late Saturday night, the snow will not stick to the roads since temperatures are expected to be several degrees above freezing.

All in all, this upcoming storm system will NOT be a problem for folks.  We'll see rain in many spots and a small chance of it turning to snow near Memphis.