Isaac on track to bring heavy rains to Arkansas

Tropical Storm Isaac edges closer to the Gulf Coast today, making landfall tonight along the Southeast Louisiana Coast. There still is a shot Isaac could become a hurricane later today. Following landfall, Isaac will weaken and continue to move North through Louisiana Wednesday. By Thursday afternoon, the center of Isaac will likely reach Arkansas, with the closest approach to Central Arkansas overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. The storm will most likely weaken to a depression by the time it crosses the Arkansas border with maximum winds less than 39 MPH. Below is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center as of 10 AM Tuesday.

 Isaac is a relatively slow moving system, which increases the potential for very heavy rainfall. Even though the winds quickly die down after a tropical system makes landfall, heavy rain can continue well inland. Below is the Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center forecast rainfall for Isaac through Sunday morning.

Torrential rains are likely near and East of the path of the storm. Parts of the Gulf Coast may receive over 15" of rainfall. Heavy rain will spread North as the system moves farther inland. Possible rainfall amounts across Central and Eastern Arkansas would receive between about 3 to 5 inches of rain according to this forecast. Rainfall amounts fall off rather quickly West of the track. It is important to keep in mind that the exact path of the center will be crucial in determining how much rain fall where. The computer models are still in disagreement over the path through Arkansas, with some taking the remnants of Isaac through far Western Arkansas, while others show it going East closer to the Mississippi River.

Should the Center go East, Central Arkansas would receive much less rainfall. A path through Western Arkansas would maximize rainfall for Central Arkansas and lead to the possibility of flooding in some spots. Fortunately, the forward motion of the remnants of Isaac will pick up a bit as it heads through the State, lessening the possibility of excessive rainfall and severe flooding. Some gusty winds will occur in association with the storm as it moves through Arkansas, but tropical storm force winds are unlikely in Central Arkansas as Isaac rapidly weakens is it moves North through Louisiana. Tropical systems sometimes can produce mainly weak, short lived tornadoes well inland. This will be something we need to watch for across Arkansas late Thursday.