At this hour, Tropical Storm Ernesto is a fairly healthy tropical cyclone with winds swirling around 60 mph. The tropical storm is drifting westward at a good clip and features decent structure.
As Ernesto continues to feed warm, rich moisture into his belly and enter a more favorable environment, it is expected to reach hurricane strength by Sunday. Eventually the tropical storm will continue it's west-northwest path until it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle of the work week.
The million dollar question is where it will go after slamming the Yucatan. Well, first let's look at modelling. Majority of the global weather models suggest a west-northwest current will take Ernesto south of Texas and into Mexico. While only a few dynamical hurricane models, like the GFDL and HWRF, are more radical in turning it straight for the Louisiana coast. For now, I'll stick with the global models since they've been on track with Ernesto from the start and they have a good grasp on this system. In other words, for now, I believe Ernesto will not be impacting Arkansas or the U.S.
We'll continue to monitor the latest data from Ernesto in the coming days. If there are any signs that will take a northward turn we'll certainly let you know about it. Until then have a good weekend and be careful in this heat.
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