Dangers from Isaac

The last blog posts have gone into great lengths to talk about the path of Hurricane Isaac, but in this post I look at the potential hazards that could come to Arkansas in the next few days.

                      (RPM model showing our first rain bands entering Southern Arkansas late Thursday morning.)

1. Weak and Brief Tornadoes

As the remnants of Hurricane Isaac slowly and steadily crawls northwestward, it will begin to send rain bands to Southern Arkansas by Thursday afternoon.  As these showers and thunderstorms rotate around the center of Isaac it could lead to our first threat - brief tornadoes.  On the northeast quadrant of a tropical storm you typically get a few weak, brief tornadoes that form.  Usually these tornadoes develop out of the rotation deviated from the center of the storm. They are extremely hard to predict, and track, so we need to be on guard.  Based on the latest forecast track of Isaac, Arkansas may be in zone just to northeast of the storm by Thursday afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center is on top of this situation, and has issued a Slight Risk for Southern Arkansas on Thursday.

2. High Wind Gusts

                       (RPM model showing 20-30 mph sustained winds in Southern Arkansas Thursday evening)

The tornado threat will begin to wane into Friday morning as Isaac collapses into a tropical depression.  Once the first rain bands start marching into Central Arkansas, you'll notice our wind getting stronger from the east/northeast.  The change in pressure from Isaac will cause winds to whip up as high as 30-40 mph.  Sustained winds may hover around 20-30 mph for an extended period of time as well. So think about securing loose objects outside like your trash cans or pool covers.

3. Major Flooding

                            (RPM model displaying accumulated rainfall in the next 72 hours.)

Our next threat approaches our doorstep on Friday - flooding.  The biggest concern from Isaac will be, without a doubt, widespread floods.  Isaac's movement is painfully slow and with no sign of any upper level support this tropical system will continue to inch it's way over land causing regions to receive a high volume of rain in a short period of time.  If the forecast path is correct and Isaac doesn't deviate, you can see from the model image above we could receive anywhere from 1-6" of rainfall in Arkansas.  Some local areas may pick up 7-8".  The bulk of the heavy rain is anticipated to arrive Friday morning all the way through Friday night.  Thus, you may run into road closures or backed up traffic along I-30.  Also, keep in mind there could be delays or cancelled high school football games if the flooding is extreme.  Remember to turn around, don't drown.

We'll continue to monitor Isaac's progress and give more updates on our weather blog soon. Stay tuned.