Cold Blast for December

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact that we got a half foot of snow not too long ago.  If you didn't hear, Jonesboro and other parts of Northeast Arkansas literally got pounded by  wintry precipitation.

Now that were basking in the sunshine you would think our weather pattern would calm down...but oh no good ol' Mother Nature has plans for Arkansas.

The rest of the work week will be fine and sunny but going into the first few days of December...things get interesting.

                                            (European Model showing a wet, chilly Sunday)

A deep upper level trough will carve out the middle of the country.  On the eastern fringe, a cold front will stall out across the Natural State.  As a few disturbances overlap the front we'll see several rounds of rain and storms push through our region.

                                   (European Model showing another good dose of rain Monday)

When it's all said and done, we could be looking at a soaking event for Central and Southeast Arkansas.  Preliminary outputs show anywhere from 2 to 4" of rain out this system ahead. 

Rainfall is fine but when you add cold air to the mix...that's when things get really interesting.  As the cold front slowly slides through Arkansas late Monday night there maybe and I say maybe, a chance that the precipitation turns over briefly to a sleet or freezing rain mix.  It's too early to speculate when and where but we need to be on alert just in case.  If this wintry mix is able to fall it shouldn't impact the Monday evening commute, instead Tuesday morning will be something to watch.

                                    (Temperatures projected by GFS on December 11th...yikes!)

If that doesn't perk your interest in the weather this bit of information might do it.  Several long term model runs are showing a gradual warm up late next week (as you would expect) then we have to gear up for a huge blast of ARCTIC AIR.  How cold are we talking about here?  Try high's barely in the 30's...10's and 20's for the rest of the country.  Now that's cold!

Bottom line this La Nina pattern is not living up to expectations. We were suppose to be warmer than normal this time of the year.  I guess you can say that forecast is off by a mile.

Major Cold Snap

For all of those who said "it doesn't feel like November" will quickly learn that Mother Nature has a cruel sense of humor.

Instead of it feeling like November, our weather will almost resemble something like January or February.  Here's what I mean by that...

Today a strong cold front will slice through the state and knock out whatever warmth that was felt earlier in the week.  Sure we'll stay in the low 60's for a chunk of the day but it won't feel that warm with the clouds and rain showers to come this afternoon.

Once the front crosses the eastern border this evening we'll dry out and steadily drop to the 50's then the 40's.

Get used to the 40's folks because after Saturday we'll be stuck here for a while. Thanks to the clouds wrapping around this unsettled weather pattern we won't climb out of the 40's on Sunday (BRRRRR!) so have those winter coats ready to go. 

                                      (Model showing flurries in Northern Arkansas on Sunday)


Before I go any further I want to say...yes...the rumors are true.  There is a tiny possibility that Northern Arkansas could see a snowflake late Sunday.  As cold air continues to rush into Arkansas on Sunday, the atmosphere could very well squeeze out a flake.  There won't be any accumulation but folks who live north of Clinton could be in for a little treat.

Sunday night we'll stumble to the 30's for extended period of time before trying to climb back to the mid 40's.

               (Model showing upper level flow at 500mb.  Notice the low cutting off from the flow)

Onto the model mayhem that ensues...For the last several days, every single model out there was showing different solutions on how the weather would unfold early next week.  Now that I have spent countless hours pulling my hair and getting more information here is how I think it will go down.

An upper level low will cut off from the main flow briefly on Monday.  The low looks to cutoff in Mississippi leaving Arkansas underneath a blanket of clouds and cold air.

                                 (Weather model showing snowflakes in Memphis on Monday.)

There were a few model runs that tried to give us an inch of snow on Monday but you can throw that idea right out the window.  The low will cutoff too far to the east for this to occur.  Secondly the air will not be that cold in the low layers to sustain it.  Majority of the model runs show dew point temperatures (measurement of moisture) being at 32 or slightly above so that is tale-tell sign that snowflakes aren't in the cards for Central Arkansas.  If there is any shot of a few snowflakes it will be closer to the cut-off low say near Memphis.

If for some reason, the models decide to shift the cutoff low radically to the left then we need to alter the forecast to mention a few flakes, but I haven't seen this solution for a while so I think it's safe to say Little Rock won't see a wintry mix from this system.

After Monday, we'll slowly watch the sunshine come into picture and temperatures will improve to the 50's for the remainder of the work week.

Flooding Mayhem

Mother Nature wasn't playing around at all last night.  Let me set the scene for you.  Everyone, including myself went to bed thinking we see a couple thunderstorms roam through Central and Northern Arkansas but man did we get a lot more than that. A strong cold front stalled over parts of Central Arkansas early this morning.  As that occured, warm, moist air rose over the front, thus a train track of thunderstorms rolled through the state all night long starting around midnight.

The rain didn't come to an end until the middle of the morning hours...what was left over was simply amazing.  A whopping 5" plus of rain in many spots especially in Little Rock and Hot Springs. 

Since the ground was already soaked from last weeks heavy rain, there wasn't anywhere for it go except on the streets.  Therefore we had parts of I-30 shut down temporarily.

But enough of the past, let's get to the future.  Tonight could be noisy again and produce a large amount of rain.  The cold front that I mentioned earlier is still draped across the state and now a fairly large upper level disturbance is about to overrun our region.  This will set the stage for more clusters of thunderstorms to move through Arkansas.  You can see them already forming in Oklahoma this evening.

                          (Weather model showing thunderstorms moving through by midnight)

                                  (Weather model shows 4" bulls eye of rain from Mena to Conway)

The big question lurking in everyone's mind is how much?  After countless hours were spent looking at over 10 weather models...I can say were up for anywhere between 1-4" of additional rain.  A few local spots could pick up near 5" but that seems rare at this hour.

In other words, if you're able to sleep through the night you'll need to prepare for road closures or at the least some heavy traffic in the morning hours.

Once this soggy wet pattern leaves the region we'll feel temperatures cool off to the 50's and 60's.  I do want to point out that fog could be an issue in Little Rock Wednesday/Thursday morning.  So there could be a slight delay picking up those loved ones at the airport.


UPCOMING WEEKEND:  It will be all rosy and sunny the rest of the week.  In fact, another strong upper level disturbance is already being prepped to swing through the deep south this upcoming weekend.

                       (GFS model showing a wintry mix possible for NE Arkansas late on Sunday.)

As this system arrives on Saturday we'll have another batch of thunderstorms roll through the state.  Then a big shot of cold air will follow up on Sunday with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30's and 40's.  One model (GFS) shows some moisture wrapping around on the back end of the system late on Sunday.  If this is right we could see our first snowflakes in Northeast Arkansas.  We're not talking about a major accumulation of snow here.  In fact, even if the atmosphere is able to squeeze out a couple snowflakes they won't be able to accumulate so there won't be any worries there.  This will be just something to watch out for in the next several days.  Overall, my gut is telling me this won't happen but I thought I'd share it with you.

Alright weather fans, that was a lengthy discussion for a very unsettled weather pattern ahead.  Hope you get plenty of sleep and enjoy your holiday travels.

Early Look at Thanksgiving Weather

Rain has been plentiful and mild weather has been common...so what lurks around the corner for Thanksgiving week?

                                     (GFS model showing storms and rain for Tuesday evening)

                   (European model is slower with the rain and brings it in early Wednesday morning)

Well, all of the long range computer models suggest a very active weather pattern ahead, one of which, that will provide numerous opportunities for rain and thunderstorms.  Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning look to be very wet (2"+ of rain possible).  An upper level disturbance will sweep in from the west early next week and carry a surface low pressure system with it.   As these two features work together with a cold front, we'll see a lot of green and yellow on the radar screen.  There are even some indications that a couple storms could be severe...but we'll save that discussion for a future blog post this weekend, if need be.

What I'm trying to say is that during one of the most busiest air travel days of the year there will be airport delays, especially if you're traveling north and east of Little Rock.  If you have relatives visiting from the west coast or connecting to Dallas you shouldn't worry about weather delays.

                                     (Preview of the Thanksgiving forecast in Central Arkansas)

When you're craving out the Thanksgiving turkey and enjoying the football game half asleep on the couch, we'll have blue skies and lots of sunshine outside.  Temperatures are still hard to pinpoint at this hour, but they appear mild near 60 degrees.

Black Friday morning looks chilly...as always...with thermometers in the 40's.  Otherwise we'll see a good amount of sunshine through the day as temperatures get to the 60's again.

There you go. That's a sneak peak at the weather for a very busy Thanksgiving week.  Enjoy the holiday everyone.

Rain Returns

It has been a long day since a day this wet across Central Arkansas. Rainfall totals as of 3pm Tuesday showing some spots already over 3", including Little Rock. By tonight, Little Rock will have had more rain today than all of September and October combined. Below are the 24 hour hour rainfall totals ending at 3pm.


The rain is caused by a slow moving front sliding across the State. A wave low pressure will move along that front bringing another surge of heavier rainfall tonight through early Wednesday morning. Computer models are showing the potential for 1 to 2 more inches of rain through tomorrow. Below is our high resolution computer rainfall forecast from Noon today through Noon Wednesday.


The overall severe threat with this system is low, mainly because of a lack of heating due. A few strong storms are possible over Southern Arkansas tonight in the warm air sector. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Southern portions of the State under a SLIGHT risk for severe storms with gusty winds as the main threat.


Rain will come to an end by Wednesday afternoon, with cooler and drier air moving in. Temperatures by Thursday morning will dip into the 30s in most spots.

Soaking November Rain

Upper 70's in November?  Yes, we've already done it once and we'll do the same it again today as a southerly wind keeps an abnormally mild air mass in Arkansas.

Of course, we're a week and half away from Turkey Day so this type of weather won't last long...will it?

If you look at the temperatures to our north, there is a cold front lingering in the Central Plains.  Temperatures there are struggling to get out of the 50's.  All it takes is a low pressure system to drag it over to our neck of the woods...

                          (Weather model showing rain arriving as soon as midnight tonight)

                          (NAM model showing rain moving through Northern Arkansas on Tuesday)


This won't happen until Tuesday.  The timing of the rain is still in question as were waiting for an upper level disturbance to slide into place tomorrow.  Majority of the model runs I've seen show the bulk of the rain sliding in Tuesday afternoon and lasting through the night.  I'm generally on board with this idea but I wouldn't be surprise to find rain puddles as I wake up early Tuesday morning.

                                (Meteogram of various models showing 1-2" of rain tomorrow)


Once the rain arrives, it won't be an hour event...or two.  There are several signs that we're looking at a much needed soaking rain lasting several hours.  As you can see in the meteogram above, almost every single model out there is squeezing out  1-2" of rain in Little Rock and Central Arkansas.  Hopefully that is the case because we need in this region.

After the soggy, wet weather rolls through our temperatures will take a nose dive into the 50's.  We'll struggle to get back to the 60's with a sunny sky above us.

Once the weekend arrives the clouds will make a come back while temperatures surge well up to the 60's and low 70's.


EARLY THANKSGIVING FORECAST:  We're a week out from the big feast, big shopping day and one of the biggest traveling days of the year so how will the weather hold up?

The weather for Thanksgiving week looks very interesting.  Long range models hint at another cold front sliding into the state a couple days before Thanksgiving.  If this system is strong enough, we could be looking a stormy outlook around the busiest air travel days of the year (oh the headaches at the airport are already forming).  Once Thanksgiving rolls around we'll probably see a good dose of sunshine but temperatures will be considerably cooler in the 50's and 60's.

I want to emphasize this is just a primarily forecast.  There will be subtle changes coming in the next few days so be sure to keep checking on the blog for the latest developments.

Now Thats A Cold Front

We have had a few strong cold fronts so far this season, but nothing like the front that blasted through the State 100 years ago today. November 11, 1911 was very warm with high temperatures in the lower 80s across Central Arkansas. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front was sweeping Southward driven by a incredibly powerful late fall storm system responsible for producing tornadoes and a blizzard at the same time. The front reached Arkansas late that evening, with temperatures tumbling as much as 70 degrees within the next 24 hours. The low temperature in Little Rock on November 12th hit 22 degrees, setting a record that still stands today. Here is a list compiled by the National Weather Service in Little Rock showing the 24 hour temperature change from highs on the 11th to the lows on the 12th

                 HIGH TEMPERATURE   LOW TEMPERATURE     24-HOUR TEMPERATURE

 CITY              NOVEMBER 11TH      NOVEMBER 12TH          CHANGE

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

FAYETTEVILLE          81                  9               -72 DEGREES
ROGERS                81                  9               -72 DEGREES
HARRISON              76                  5               -71 DEGREES
DUTTON                78                  8               -70 DEGREES
SUBIACO               86                 16               -70 DEGREES
EUREKA SPRINGS        80                 11               -69 DEGREES
FORT SMITH            85                 16               -69 DEGREES
AMITY                 86                 20               -66 DEGREES
DODD CITY             78                 12               -66 DEGREES
SWAIN                 73                  7               -66 DEGREES
JONESBORO             80                 15               -65 DEGREES
LUTHERVILLE           81                 16               -65 DEGREES
MENA                  80                 15               -65 DEGREES
CENTER POINT          86                 22               -64 DEGREES
HARDY                 78                 14               -64 DEGREES
BEE BRANCH            79                 17               -62 DEGREES
MAMMOTH SPRING        77                 15               -62 DEGREES
PRESCOTT              85                 23               -62 DEGREES
HOT SPRINGS           82                 21               -61 DEGREES
POCAHONTAS            78                 17               -61 DEGREES
CONWAY                81                 21               -60 DEGREES
ENGLAND               80                 20               -60 DEGREES
BENTON                80                 21               -59 DEGREES
HUTTIG                81                 22               -59 DEGREES
LITTLE ROCK           81                 22               -59 DEGREES
CAMDEN                83                 25               -58 DEGREES
EL DORADO             82                 24               -58 DEGREES
FORDYCE               82                 25               -57 DEGREES
TEXARKANA             81                 24               -57 DEGREES
ARKADELPHIA           78                 22               -56 DEGREES
MALVERN               81                 26               -55 DEGREES
WARREN                82                 27               -55 DEGREES
PINE BLUFF            78                 24               -54 DEGREES
HELENA                79                 26               -53 DEGREES
NEWPORT               73                 20               -53 DEGREES
PORTLAND              83                 30               -53 DEGREES
BRINKLEY              74                 22               -52 DEGREES
WYNNE                 73                 22               -51 DEGREES
LEWISVILLE            78                 29               -49 DEGREES 

A line of storms is taking shape across Eastern Oklahoma this morning associated with a cold front. The storms will reach Central Arkansas this evening, mainly after 6 PM. The main threat will continue to be strong gusty winds with the squall line. During peak heating hours this afternoon, there will be a brief window of opportunity for an isolated tornado threat, but the air mass will become less conducive for a tornado as temperatures cool back off after dark. Most of the storms will push East before Midnight.