Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Where's The Storms?
TODAY: A cluster of thunderstorms is pushing through southeast Arkansas this morning. This is all in response to an upper level impulse that interacted with a cold front last night. Most of the rain will remain south and east of Little Rock for the rest of the morning hours. Temperatures will stay in the mid upper 80's thanks to the cloud cover overhead.
As the day wears on we may see another upper level impulse interact with the cold front. If so, enough daytime heating (temperatures near or at 90 degrees this afternoon) should promote more thunderstorms today. Some of these storms could pack a punch bringing small hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat, on the other hand, looks very low. Unfortunately the best chance of running into these storms will be south of Little Rock. That doesn't mean we won't see rain in the metro, it just means most of the accumulation will be closer to the southern border.
High resolution model showing more storms for Southern AR today.
TOMORROW: Even though the cold front will be in Central Arkansas on Wednesday, our rain chances will be slim to none. Majority of the moisture will shift out of the state tomorrow. With the lack of rain around, we'll see a mixture of clouds and a little sunshine with temperatures warming up into the low 90's.
THURSDAY - WEEKEND: Moisture will return to our state. At the same time, the cold front that I mentioned, won't move out of Arkansas this week or for the weekend. It will essentially just stall over us. That is great news for all you wet weather fans. As the front continues to dangle in the Natural State and several upper level disturbances rush by, we'll see scattered thunderstorms develop. Majority of them will come your way in the afternoon hours when daytime heating is better. Aside from that scenery, temperatures will generally be in the 80's and low 90's.
GFS model showing an upper level disturbance (vorticity maximum) on Friday
GFS model showing more showers and storms through the weekend.
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