Surprise, Surprise

You've heard me say that another heat wave is coming to Arkansas...and the rain chances are practically gone until July.  Well, that may not be entirely true.

TONIGHT:  Most of the night will be uneventful with temperatures dropping to the 70's.  However, some high resolution models suggest a thunderstorm complex forming in the middle of Missouri and going south into Arkansas.

Before you cheer, I want to say that I'm not sold on this scenario just yet. These high resolution models tend to overcompensate on weak upper level disturbances and that seems like the case here.  The other models show a complex of storms scrapping NE Arkansas and not making it into Central Arkansas.  As much as I hate to say it, I tend to agree with this outcome rather the other.  I'll continue to monitor what's going on Missouri and let you know the chances of rain on FOX 16 News at 9pm.

TOMORROW:  I believe there will be a chance of storms in NE Arkansas but  majority of us we'll witness a good amount of sunshine and feel temperatures climb to the 90's.  Western Arkansas will push for the upper 90's by Sunday afternoon.

MONDAY: Just your run-of-the-mill summer day with lots of sunshine.  Temperatures will make a run for the upper 90's.

MID-WEEK:  Earlier I thought the upper level ridge would expand over Arkansas but that doesn't seem to be the case on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Models are now showing the ridge staying put in Texas and into Oklahoma.  On the outer rim of the ridge there will be an upper level disturbance coming our way.

                                    
Thanks to this disturbance we'll have another shot at rain and thunderstorms.  The best chances will come in on Tuesday and early Wednesday. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:  The ridge will expand and weaken on top of us.  In other words, our chances of rain disappear and temperatures stay in the mid-upper 90's.

So there you have it.  Rain chances are back in the forecast but they are not incredibly high.