Singing in The Rain

TODAY:  Little Rock and all of Central Arkansas saw a welcomed sight today.  Several thunderstorms developed along a weak frontal boundary and moved through this morning.  I have to say this was exactly what we needed in the region.

As I write this discussion, one more cluster of thunderstorms is setting up shop in Northwest Arkansas and dropping southeast.  This scenario will allow us to get another dose of heavy rain and lightning.  Judging by the latest rainfall totals, we'll be getting at least another inch before the day is over.  With the onset of more storms and clouds, temperatures will hardly budge from where they are now, which is in the 70's.  No oppressive heat today! 

TONIGHT: The storms will weaken and move out of Central Arkansas this evening.  This drying trend will last the entire night with temperatures hanging out in the 70's.

TOMORROW:  The same weak frontal boundary that carried these wonderful thunderstorms in the region today will linger in the state.  Giving us another opportunity for rain.  Before you bust out the umbrella again, I want to say that the chance of rain will be low compared to what's going on today.  The lack of surface convergence and upper level lift will help to suppress our opportunity to see rain drops.

Since we'll likely see some sunlight tomorrow afternoon and see less coverage of rain temperatures will spike back to the 80's and 90's on Wednesday.

THURSDAY - 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND:  Nothing has changed on this part of the forecast.  A broad area of high pressure aloft (ridging) will stretch over to Arkansas.  In response, our temperatures will be in the mid-upper 90's and sunshine will be common across the state.

Thanks to the amount of rain today we'll probably stay out of the 100's for Friday despite the high pressure spreading closer to us.  Saturday appears to be the hottest with the high pressure just north of the metro area.   Temperatures at this point are still on track to hit 100.

4TH OF JULY:  The models are indicating that the ridge may not hold together by the 4th of July.  This does open the door for more clouds and possibly an isolated shower to develop late in the afternoon.  We'll keep an eye on this development soon. 

I'll talk about the tropical system that is developing in the Bay of Campeche tomorrow.  Until then be safe and have those umbrellas handy!

Unexpected Clouds

TODAY:  A strange turn of events happened overnight.  Instead of a cluster of thunderstorms moving east through Northern Missouri and Illinois, they turned to the southeast while we were sleeping.  Due to this unanticipated shift, we're seeing a good amount of cloud cover in Arkansas this morning...I guess we'll take whatever we can get to cool us off this week.

This afternoon doesn't look nearly as gloomy.  Eventually these clouds will burn off and allow some sun to shine through.  Temperatures won't hit the upper 90's like we were thinking earlier but we will make it back to the 90's no less.

TONIGHT:  Clouds are back on the increase and a cold front will be knocking on our northern border.  In other words it will be warm and humid with temperatures only falling to near 80 degrees.

TOMORROW:  This is our moment to see rain and thunderstorms in Central Arkansas.  The rain chances aren't great but they'll be here.  A cold front and an weak upper level disturbance is anticipated to set off showers in the state.  The best shot of rain looks to start in Northern Arkansas in the morning hours and shift south of I-40 in the afternoon period.  There is the possibility that a few storms may be severe with small hail and gusty winds.

WEDNESDAY:  The front is still in Arkansas so the rain chances still exist on this day.  Otherwise temperatures struggle to get back to the low-mid 90's.

THURSDAY - 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND:  An upper level ridge expands over Arkansas and squashes our rain chances.  Lots of sunshine will make into the state while temperatures sky rocket to the upper 90's.  Wouldn't be surprised if we get our first 100 degree day on Friday or Saturday.  We'll have to wait and see on that.

Alright weather fans that's it.  Be sure to keep it here on the blog for the latest information.  Have a great week. 

  

Surprise, Surprise

You've heard me say that another heat wave is coming to Arkansas...and the rain chances are practically gone until July.  Well, that may not be entirely true.

TONIGHT:  Most of the night will be uneventful with temperatures dropping to the 70's.  However, some high resolution models suggest a thunderstorm complex forming in the middle of Missouri and going south into Arkansas.

Before you cheer, I want to say that I'm not sold on this scenario just yet. These high resolution models tend to overcompensate on weak upper level disturbances and that seems like the case here.  The other models show a complex of storms scrapping NE Arkansas and not making it into Central Arkansas.  As much as I hate to say it, I tend to agree with this outcome rather the other.  I'll continue to monitor what's going on Missouri and let you know the chances of rain on FOX 16 News at 9pm.

TOMORROW:  I believe there will be a chance of storms in NE Arkansas but  majority of us we'll witness a good amount of sunshine and feel temperatures climb to the 90's.  Western Arkansas will push for the upper 90's by Sunday afternoon.

MONDAY: Just your run-of-the-mill summer day with lots of sunshine.  Temperatures will make a run for the upper 90's.

MID-WEEK:  Earlier I thought the upper level ridge would expand over Arkansas but that doesn't seem to be the case on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Models are now showing the ridge staying put in Texas and into Oklahoma.  On the outer rim of the ridge there will be an upper level disturbance coming our way.

                                    
Thanks to this disturbance we'll have another shot at rain and thunderstorms.  The best chances will come in on Tuesday and early Wednesday. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:  The ridge will expand and weaken on top of us.  In other words, our chances of rain disappear and temperatures stay in the mid-upper 90's.

So there you have it.  Rain chances are back in the forecast but they are not incredibly high.

Prepare For More Heat

TODAY: It was so nice early this morning...we were greeted with clouds and sprinkles in Central Arkansas.  Meanwhile NE Arkansas got a couple good downpours.  This afternoon has been a different story outside.  We're seeing lots of sunshine and feeling the heat in the 90's.  Thanks to an outflow boundary temperatures are not as hot as they were yesterday.  More information on the video above.

WEEKEND - NEXT WEEK: An upper level high will take control of the Mississippi Valley.  This pattern will lead to bright, hot afternoons with high's in the upper 90's.

One Last Chance at Rain

TODAY: We're roasting under the summer sun.  Temperatures have climbed to the mid 90's and will stay there for the rest of the afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT:  Currently an upper level disturbance is kicking off showers and thunderstorms in Southern Kansas and the Northern border of Oklahoma.  That same disturbance will rush into Arkansas tonight paving the way for more rain chances.  The best chance of storms appear to be in Northern Arkansas.  However, Central Arkansas still has a shot at picking up on some rain drops.  I'll break down the timing of the event on FOX 16 news at 5, 9 and 10.

WEEKEND:  After Friday, we have very, very small chances of rain for the E/NE Arkansas otherwise we'll see more sunshine and feel temperatures climb back to the mid 90's.

NEXT WEEK:  Another area of high pressure in the upper level of the atmosphere will flex it's muscle next week.  This will give us the same type of weather we've seen almost this entire month - blistering heat and lots of sunshine.

Alright weather fans that's it.  More updates coming your way tomorrow.  Have a great evening.

Rain or No Rain?

TODAY: Yet again rain and thunderstorms occupied Southeast Arkansas this morning.  In the afternoon we have been mainly dry and cloudy in Central Arkansas with temperatures struggling to get out of the 80's.  A tiny downpour showed up on the radar just an hour ago and remains south of Glenwood.  Any rain showers that try to develop to our south/southwest will fade away this evening.

I'll post more informatoin on the blog tomorrow until then enjoy the video update.

Where's The Storms?

TODAY: A cluster of thunderstorms is pushing through southeast Arkansas this morning.  This is all in response to an upper level impulse that interacted with a cold front last night.  Most of the rain will remain south and east of Little Rock for the rest of the morning hours.  Temperatures will stay in the mid upper 80's thanks to the cloud cover overhead.

As the day wears on we may see another upper level impulse interact with the cold front. If so, enough daytime heating (temperatures near or at 90 degrees this afternoon) should promote more thunderstorms today.  Some of these storms could pack a punch bringing small hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat, on the other hand, looks very low.  Unfortunately the best chance of running into these storms will be south of Little Rock.  That doesn't mean we won't see rain in the metro, it just means most of the accumulation will be closer to the southern border.

                                           High resolution model showing more storms for Southern AR today.


TOMORROW:  Even though the cold front will be in Central Arkansas on Wednesday, our rain chances will be slim to none.  Majority of the moisture will shift out of the state tomorrow.  With the lack of rain around, we'll see a mixture of clouds and a little sunshine with temperatures warming up into the low 90's.

THURSDAY - WEEKEND: Moisture will return to our state.  At the same time, the cold front that I mentioned, won't move out of Arkansas this week or for the weekend.  It will essentially just stall over us.  That is great news for all you wet weather fans.  As the front continues to dangle in the Natural State and several upper level disturbances rush by, we'll see scattered thunderstorms develop.  Majority of them will come your way in the afternoon hours when daytime heating is better.  Aside from that scenery,  temperatures will generally be in the 80's and low 90's.

                                      GFS model showing an upper level disturbance (vorticity maximum) on Friday

                                           GFS model showing more showers and storms through the weekend.

Hot Weather Stays Put

                                                          HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!!

FATHER'S DAY: If you have any outdoor plans later this afternoon then be prepared to sweat. It will be hot for the rest of this Father's Day with temperatures in the 90's and heat index values above 100.  This evening will be quiet with temperatures slowly climbing down to the low 90's and 80's.

If you want more info then check out the video above.

Hot Weather for Father's Day Weekend

TODAY:  A few surprising thunderstorms moved through North Central Arkansas this morning and a couple more isolated showers are being found on HD Pinpoint Radar this afternoon.  Besides the very slim rain chances later today we'll have temperatures stay in the mid-upper 90's.  For more information click on the video above.

Storms = Relief

An intense thunderstorm pounded the southern portion of Arkansas last night and it wasn't that hard to spot outside your window.  This amazing cumulonimbus was found several miles from our station.

The lone thunderstorm kept chugging along in Jefferson, Cleveland and parts of Dallas County late last night.  What made it stand out was its movement.  Unlike your typical thunderstorm that travels west to east or south to north...this single storm kept back building from east to west.  Besides the incredible lightning show, the storm manage to produce golf ball size hail at times.

TODAY: More storms are on tap and for some that will be a welcomed sight.  Currently a cluster of thunderstorms is occupying Fort Smith.  Majority of the models are suggesting that the storms will fizzle out soon and be gone by the lunch hour, but I don't get that feeling.  I expect these storms to continue to move northeast into Northern Arkansas and spill cool air over portions of the state.  Along with the threat of lightning and gusty winds, some of these storms north of Little Rock could produce large hail.

Not everybody will see a storm outside their backyard today but you will see a good amount of cirrus clouds mix with the sunshine.  With enough cloud cover and a cool outflow boundary near by, we will not be as hot today as we were yesterday (99 was our high on Wednesday).  Having said that, it will still be very warm outside with temperatures ranging from the upper 80's in Northern Arkansas to the upper 90's in Southern Arkansas.  Little Rock will likely end up in the mid to upper 90's.

WEEKEND:  We'll be frying under the sun on Father's Day weekend.  An area of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will scoot over from Texas and expand into Arkansas.  This trend will lead to a sunny sky and temperatures to spike up to the upper 90's.

NEXT WEEK: A nice short wave aloft will help develop a surface low and cold front in the Central Plains by the middle of next week.  Models are still showing that this cold front will make it to Central Arkansas between Wednesday and Thursday.  Again, I want to caution you that this front doesn't look very impressive. It will give us a good chance at cloud cover and thunderstorms which should translate to relatively cooler temperatures in the 80's.

However, there are already signs that this cooler and wetter pattern won't last long.  Thanks to zonal flow aloft and more sunshine, we'll quickly warm back up to the 90's by the time we get into the first weekend of summer.

Heat Continues...Storms Anyone?

TODAY: The heat is on...again.  Temperatures are already heading for the mid 90's this afternoon.  Our only relief in sight today will be from any thunderstorms that try to develop today.  If any storm does manage to go up they will likely be strong, bringing gusty winds and small hail so be on the lookout if you're heading to the lakes.  For more information on today's rain chances check out the video above.

TOMORROW: Besides being hot, there is still a shot at an isolated thunderstorm after lunch.  Temperatures will make a run at the mid 90's.

WEEKEND: An upper level ridge will expand into Arkansas which in turn will boost temperatures into the upper 90's. Sunshine will be common and rain chances will be non-existant.  Needless to say, if you own a pool you're a popular person these days.

NEXT WEEK:  I don't want to over hype this pattern...but the weather models are hinting at a cold front  sometime Wednesday.  Before you put your up your hands and cheer "thank goodness" beware the models at one point were showing almost the exact setup THIS week...and well, it is not exactly pardise outside now is it.  We'll keep an eye on this upcoming storm system for you.  Make sure to keep it tuned to the blog.

                                           European Model showing storms and cooler air next week Wendesday

Less Storms, More Sunshine

                                  Here's a quick video update on what's going with the weather outside.

A Few Storms This Weekend

Thanks to a weak frontal boundary and moisture in the air, we will see a few showers and thunderstorms develop today.  The best chance of running into a shower will be in Western and Northern Arkansas.  More info is in the video above.  Enjoy.

Relief from the Heat

Despite what you just read in the title, the heat will not be leaving us alone the rest of the work week.  I know I was hoping for that too. However, there are signs that Mother Nature is changing the weather pattern above us. A dome of upper level high pressure is breaking down...FINALLY! This will take temperatures down a few degrees in the next couple days.  Now, you probably won't notice the two degree cool down outside but you will notice more afternoon thunderstorms popping up in the Natural State.  Earlier today we saw the ridge make a turn to the east and allow some moisture to spill into SE Arkansas.  I suspect we'll see more of that in the coming days and allow a few cities to cool off breifly down the road.

                                                (Weather model showing more PM storms developing Wednesday)

Looking way down the road, I noticed a promising sign next week. Reliable long term models are showing a weak cold front propelling into the state.  You read it here first.  The timing of the front is still questionable but I'm seeing it occuring sometime late next week (Thu-Fri).  Besides feeling high's in the 80's we'll likely have a good batch of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Cross your fingers on this one.  Hopefully we'll get one or two more of these fronts to fight off the incredible heat that will come during the summer months.

Hot Temperatures and...Thunderstorms?

Record Setting Heat