Violent Weather Monday...and Tuesday Night

As I write this discussion in the middle of the night, there is a large cluster of showers and strong thunderstorms roaming around I-40.  Worst threats will continue to be gusty straight line winds and lots of lightning.  Little Rock could receive a quick heavy dose of rain after midnight.

MONDAY:  Jeff and I agree that this day will be a SWAD (Severe Weather Alert Day).  The jet stream will buckle and allow a surface low to pull a cold front into the western border of Arkansas.  Before this occurs, we'll have lingering showers and storms in portions of Central and Northern Arkansas in the morning.  Eventually we'll dry out around the lunch hour...but by the time we reach the mid-afternoon hours violent storms should erupt on the eastern side of Oklahoma and NE Texas.  These supercell thunderstorms are expected to track over in Western Arkansas around 3-5pm.  At this point, large tornadoes and big hail will be the main concern.  As the strong storms advance forward toward Central Arkansas they'll likely form into a line around 8-10pm.  The main threat will quickly shift from tornadoes to straight line winds.  The whole severe weather episode should diminish as we get past the midnight period.

                                               
                                         

                                       (Weather model shows storms developing around 3-4pm)

                                            (Model shows rough weather around 8pm)


On top of all this mess, the National Weather Service is very worried about the potential for major floods in Northern Arkansas.  In fact, the service are calling this threat a "particularly dangerous situation".  I've never, ever seen that type of wording ever used with floods.  So, be extremely wise with your travel near I-40 and northward.  If emergency personal ask you to leave your home due to flood waters make sure to listen to them and follow their instructions.

TUESDAY: If you thought it couldn't get any worst, we have a second round of severe weather primed and ready for Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.  What's sad is that it could be even worst.  The flood waters could be higher and...the potential for long lived tornadoes will be greater.  Luckily we'll have a small window of opportunity for our weather to actually calm down.  We should relatively dry most of Tuesday morning and afternoon yet when another intense surface low heads into town  we could be looking another bad episode of severe weather.

Our weather will FINALLY settle down Thursday and Friday.  Until then be sure to stay tuned to FOX 16 for breaking weather news.  We'll be sure to stream our severe weather coverage online and on mobile phones so have those handy in the future.  Also you can follow me on twitter at FOX16weather.

Have a great week and be safe!