Cool Front Not Cold Front

Today is almost a carbon copy of yesterday.  Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Saturday and the winds will be faster but other than that there isn't a huge difference outside.

TONIGHT:  The rest of the tonight appears a bit breezy and warm with temperatures staying well into the 70's.  On top of that, clouds will be on the increase.

MONDAY:  A little past midnight, a cold front will cross through our northwest border.  With enough convergence and cool air aloft we'll see strong thunderstorms fire off this frontal boundary.  Eventually these storms will form into a disorganized line and move though Central Arkansas around sunrise or possibly sooner.  Looking at the latest observations and model data I can make out a good amount of wind energy coming out of this upcoming system.   In other words, damaging straight line winds are on the menu with these storms along with frequent lightning and heavy downpours.  Hail could also come into play in few parts of the state.  When it comes to the tornado threat...well...it's there but it's not very high.  The instability seems incredibly low for a large tornado to break out into the state.  Like I mentioned yesterday, I still can't rule out a small weak tornado dropping somewhere due to the low level rotation.

When most of you get up and go to work you'll be driving through puddles and light showers.  Most of the thunderstorms will have already pass you by and head over the eastern portion of the state.  It will be cloudy and damp in the morning with temperatures generally in the 60's.  In due time, the clouds should clear out in the afternoon hours and allow thermometers to spike up back into the low to mid 70's.

REST OF THE WEEK:  We'll stay comfortable in the 70's for a couple days and see plenty of sunshine.  As we close out the work week more clouds will pay us a visit and possibly drop some heavy rain in Northern Arkansas as we approach Thursday.  An upper level disturbance will hang around just to our north then track over to the east allowing northwest flow to return to the state.  This pattern change will allow cool air to rush into the Natural State and hold temperatures in the 60's by the time we approach next weekend.