The Fate of Debby

Several of you are wondering what the fate of Tropical Storm Debby will be and how it will influence our weather in Arkansas, so let me run through it with you.

At this hour, Tropical Storm Debby is a healthy cyclone with winds packing up to 60 mph.  Also, the movement on Debby is fairly slow to the northeast.  Meanwhile, heavy rain bands are drenching the Florida coastline and bringing a few funnel clouds to the region.

As of 3 p.m. the National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Debby tracking radically to the west-northwest toward Louisiana by Thursday.  Here is an interesting tidbit though...ever since Debby was born it has bucked the trend and never followed the track from the NHC.  In the future, I believe that Debby will continue to NOT follow the current NHC track and it will continue its northeast path.

The European and Canadian models were the two main models that were advertising this westward movement, but the latest updates are in and they are now on board with the north and east track.  Thus, the consensus is out that the tropical cyclone won't be influenced by the upper level ridge (the system responsible for our intense heat) rather it will be carried by a weak trough near the Great Lakes.

This latest analysis is both good news and bad news.  Of course the bad news with this outcome will be the worsening drought conditions in the state.  We need the rain badly and a tropical storm could of have been a perfect remedy to cure this situation.  On the other hand, there is a positive side to all of this.  Next weekend is the Big Bass Bonanza, one of the biggest outdoor events across Arkansas.  With this likely projection of Debby, the event will go on as scheduled.  If the left overs of Tropical Storm Debby sat on top of us, like some models were suggesting, we could have looked at major flooding hazards and a cancellation of the event.

Let me remind you that this is Mother Nature were talking about and nothing is 100% certain in this business but the confidence is high that Debby make its way to the Atlantic while leaving us to fend off the heat.  Make sure to stay tune to the FOX 16 Weather Blog for more updates on Debby.