As this low pressure emerges from the Pacific Coast it will drag a fairly strong cold front through the middle of the country by Monday. As this front presses up against warm, moist air from the Gulf, a line of thunderstorms is anticipated to form from Oklahoma through Texas. It is in this region that a couple storms could be strong enough to produce hail and tornadoes.
Once the front progresses through Central Arkansas late on Tuesday, the storms won't be as intense. Due to the lack of heat and instability, our severe threat will be limited as we get through the middle of the work week. Having said that, we do have to be mindful of how the day evolves. A couple weather models have hinted at the possibility of hail, gusty winds and brief tornadoes getting close to the southern border of Arkansas.
(RPM model showing accumulated rainfall going out to Tuesday afternoon)
If there is are any major concerns with this upcoming disturbance it has to be the flash flooding potential. The mentioned cold front will move at very slow pace through the state. Thus, the line of rain and storms will also track over the same region for hours at hand. Early indications are that the western portion of Arkansas could see the most rain with estimates ranging from 2 to 4 inches. Localized areas could pick up 6 inches if the line holds together longer than expected.
Once the cold front passes through we'll easily fall back in the temperature department. Thermometer readings for the second half of the week will struggle to get back to 70 degrees. Meanwhile, a few wrap around showers could spread back into the state for Wednesday and Thursday.
We'll have more information on this next storm system coming up in a day or two. Until then enjoy the flip flops and short sleeves.
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