Record Warm March

This March was warm for much of the Eastern two thirds of the Country, and that is especially true for Arkansas with March 2012 going down as the warmest March ever recorded. For Little Rock, this March was the warmest by a couple of criteria. Daytime highs averaged 76.2 degrees, over 12 degrees above the normal average high for March, which is the warmest average high for March recorded.

The average monthly temperature for March was also the warmest recorded. This measurement takes into account both high and low temperatures. This March easily beat the previous warmest March which averaged 63.1 degrees in 1907. The overall average temperature this March was 64.3 degrees, almost 11 degrees above normal. This temperature would even be above normal for APRIL, which has a normal average monthly temperature of 62.1

Looking at only low temperatures for the month, this March ranked 2nd warmest with the average low temperature almost 10 degrees above normal.

Complete temperature records for Little Rock go back to 1879.

Warm March Means a Sizzling Summer, Right?

With temperatures marching up into the 80s this upcoming work week, I keep getting asked the same question around the weather department.  It goes along something like this "Since this March is so warm does that mean our Summer season will be brutally hot?"

This inquiry got me thinking so I did some research on the subject.  The results I found may surprise you.

I surveyed the top ten hottest summer seasons and compared them to the warmest March. Plus I compared the numbers to the warmest spring season.  Here are the results:

TOP 10 HOTTEST SUMMERS (average high temperature)

1. 1954 - 97.61 °F

2. 1980 - 96.29 °F

3. 2010 - 96.07 °F

4. 2011 - 95.93 °F

5. 1943 - 95.33 °F

6. 1998 - 95.24 °F

7. 1952 - 94.41 °F

8. 1934 - 94.19 °F

9. 1995 - 93.80 °F

10. 1953 - 93.52 °F

TOP 10 WARMEST SPRINGS (average high temperature)

1. 1986 - 76.64 °F

2. 1963 - 76.51 °F

3. 1977 - 76.20 °F

4. 2010 - 76.20 °F

5. 2007 - 76.03 °F

6. 2006 - 76.03 °F

7. 1967 - 75.97 °F

8. 1964 - 75.39 °F

9. 1925 - 75.30 °F

10. 1986 - 75.23 °F

TOP 10 WARMEST MARCH (avg. monthly high temperature)

1. 2007 - 73.40 °F

2. 1910 - 73.29 °F

3. 1907 - 72.13 °F

4. 1963 - 71.32 °F

5. 1967 - 70.97 °F

6. 1921 - 70.35 °F

7. 1908 - 70.35 °F

8. 1938 - 70.16 °F

9. 1935 - 69.74 °F

10. 1974 - 69.58 °F

After reviewing the climatology information from the National Weather Service in North Little Rock, there was only ONE year where a warm spring season led to a brutally hot summer; that year was 2010.  Otherwise none of the warmest march months matched up with the hottest summers on record.  Needless to say, a warm spring or March does not usually lead to a hot summer.

Flood and Storm Threat

A very slow moving storm system will bring heavy rains and some storms to Arkansas over the next few days. A cold front will slowly push into Western Arkansas Tuesday with a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms. The front will be a very slow mover as an upper level low pressure system cuts off from the main flow over West Texas.

A few strong storms are possible along the leading edge and just out ahead of the main band of rain. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a SLIGHT risk for severe weather through Tuesday night for Western and parts of Central Arkansas. Gusty winds and possible hail with the storm are the main threats, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. This is the Storm Prediction Center risk area through Tuesday Night.

Due to the very slow movement of the band of rain, rainfall amounts are likely to very heavy with flash flooding in some spots. Some roads may become water covered and creeks and streams may overflow their banks. The main band of heavy rain will approach Central Arkansas by late Tuesday evening

The band of rain will likely stall across Central Arkansas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with additional rainfall likely through Wednesday night. Rain will begin to push East and out of Arkansas by Thursday Morning.

Rainfall amounts through Thursday morning will be quite heavy in spots, especially for the Western half of the State. Rain amounts will fall off for Eastern Arkansas where flooding will be less of a threat. These are the forecast rain totals through Thursday

Widespread rain amounts over 4 inches are likely West of Little Rock, with over 8 inches in some spots mainly West of the Arkansas border. These rainfall amounts may produce serious flash flooding in some spots. It is important to pay attention to any warnings issued over the next couple of days. Most importantly, do not drive across flooded roads. This is how most flood related fatalities occur.  Remember...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

Wet, Stormy Week

A very slow moving storm system will bring several rounds of heavy rain and the threat for a few strong storms. As of early Monday afternoon, a slow moving upper air low pressure system was moving toward the Plains with widespread rain and storms spreading through Oklahoma and Texas.

A few strong storms will be possible, mainly across Western Arkansas through tonight as storms move out of Oklahoma late Monday evening. Strong gusty winds are possible with these storms, as well as an isolated tornado threat. Below is the Severe Outlook form the Storm Prediction Center through Monday Night. Parts of extreme West Central Arkansas, including the Mena area in Polk County, are under a MODERATE risk for severe storms. The rest of the Western half of Arkansas is under a SLIGHT risk. Note the Little Rock metro area is not in the Slight risk.

As the upper low pressure system cuts off from the main flow, the band of rain and storms will slow down and eventually stall across Western Arkansas late Monday night into Tuesday, this will create a significant flood threat. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of Western Arkansas through Wednesday

The band of rain and storms will only make very slow progress, not even reaching the Little Rock metro area until as late as Wednesday afternoon. This scenario will create excessive rainfall amounts, especially for Western Arkansas. Below is our computer model rainfall projection through Thursday

Rainfall across Western Arkansas will generally range from 4 to 6 inches through Thursday, however, isolated amounts to as much as 10 inches are not out of the question. These kind of rainfall amounts will cause significant flash flooding in spots. Initially, small creek ans stream and road flooding will be the main issue with river flooding an increasing threat even after the rain comes to an end. Rainfall amounts over Central Arkansas will be less, but some flooding problems will still be possible with 1 to 3 inch amounts. Rain amounts will fall off quickly East of the Little Rock area with only a minimal flood threat.

Pay close attention to all warnings over the next couple of days and be prepared to take action if necessary. Remember, flash flooding is usually responsible for more deaths per year than tornadoes in Arkansas. Under no circumstance is it safe to cross a flooded road. TURN AROUND...DOWN AROUND

Tuesday's Thunderstorms

You can kiss the unseasonably warm air and the dry weather goodbye in a couple days.  A strong low pressure system is about to change our weather dramatically this upcoming week.

                                 (Monday's setup for severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas.)

As this low pressure emerges from the Pacific Coast it will drag a fairly strong cold front through the middle of the country by Monday.  As this front presses up against warm, moist air from the Gulf, a line of thunderstorms is anticipated to form from Oklahoma through Texas.  It is in this region that a couple storms could be strong enough to produce hail and tornadoes.

                            (SPC SREF model showing no tornado threat for Arkansas but some in Louisiana on Tuesday)

Once the front progresses through Central Arkansas late on Tuesday, the storms won't be as intense.  Due to the lack of heat and instability, our severe threat will be limited as we get through the middle of the work week.  Having said that, we do have to be mindful of how the day evolves.  A couple weather models have hinted at the possibility of hail, gusty winds and brief tornadoes getting close to the southern border of Arkansas. 

(RPM model showing accumulated rainfall going out to Tuesday afternoon)

If there is are any major concerns with this upcoming disturbance it has to be the flash flooding potential.  The mentioned cold front will move at very slow pace through the state.  Thus, the line of rain and storms will also track over the same region for hours at hand.  Early indications are that the western portion of Arkansas could see the most rain with estimates ranging from 2 to 4 inches.  Localized areas could pick up 6 inches if the line holds together longer than expected.

Once the cold front passes through we'll easily fall back in the temperature department.  Thermometer readings for the second half of the week will struggle to get back to 70 degrees.  Meanwhile, a few wrap around showers could spread back into the state for Wednesday and Thursday.

We'll have more information on this next storm system coming up in a day or two. Until then enjoy the flip flops and short sleeves.

Sunday Storms

The upper disturbance that is spinning over New Mexico will finally begin to move Northeast Sunday into The Plains. As the system moves Northeast it draw up warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico across Arkansas by Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance will spread into Central Arkansas. These showers and storms will likely organize into a disorganized squall line by early Sunday evening. Below is a computer projection of the storms moving through Central Arkansas around 5 PM Sunday evening.

Strong gusty winds and small hail will be the main threat with the storms, however, there may be just enough spin in the atmosphere to support a tornado threat as well.  Based on the latest data, the greatest threat for a brief tornado will be on the southern edge of Arkansas near Camden and El Dorado.  It is in this region where there is the best combination of lift, heat and rotation in the atmosphere.

                        (SPC SREF model showing the small risk of a tornado in Louisiana and Southern Arkansas)

There are a couple of factors that will mitigate the severe risk.  One of the main inhibiting factors will be the lack of warm, unstable air.  On Sunday, there will be no room for the sunshine to warm up our atmosphere.  Instead clouds and spotty showers in the early morning hours will keep the severe threat down.  The only spot to watch for will be in Southern Arkansas where temperatures will be a little warmer and there will be more moisture in the air.

All in all, keep it tuned to FOX 16 for the very latest information.  We'll continue to monitor the skies for you and give you any updates that are important to you.

A big time soaker is heading for Arkansas with several rounds of potentially heavy rainfall. On the positive side, this will essentially eliminate the fire danger problem that has escalated over the last couple of weeks. The problem is that excessive rainfall may create flooding problems, especially be early next week.

A cold front will approach Thursday with showers and some thunderstorms beginning in the morning and continuing into the afternoon. Rain will increase along and behind the front during the evening hours with a band of heavy rainfall likely setting up along the slow moving boundary.

 A few strong storms are possible ahead of the front, with localized gusty winds and hail as the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center placed parts of Central and Southern Arkansas in a Slight risk area for strong storms mainly for early Thursday afternoon.

 Any threat of strong storms will quickly diminish behind the front, however, heavy rain will continue behind the frontal boundary. Rain will diminish and push South by Friday's morning commute.

 Our high resolution computer model forecast shows generally between 2 and 4 inches of rain through Friday morning. Some spots may even see higher amounts.

 The Thursday/Thursday night round of rainfall is only part of this wet scenario. The frontal boundary will return North over the weekend as a disturbance rotates around a slow moving upper over The Plains. The timing of the second round of rain is still uncertain, but our computer model indicates the rain moving back in by Saturday afternoon. Some other models are a little slower not showing rain moving back in until Sunday.

Rainfall will finally come to an end as the slow moving upper disturbance finally lifts out to the Northeast. by the time the rain is finished, many areas in Arkansas will receive more than the average total for the entire month. Below is an estimate of potential rainfall from Thursday through Monday.

The soil is still quite dry so much of the water will be absorbed, however, the ground will become saturated after the first round of rainfall leading to a higher potential for some localized flooding for early next week with the second round of rainfall.

Arkansas Soaker

Severe storms have passed and our weather has been quiet. Of course we know Mother Nature is never in hibernation this time of the year.

Later this week, an upper level low will stagger into Texas and cut off from the main flow causing it to slow down to a sails pace.  As this process takes place, a surface low will carry in a fairly stationary cold front.  When you add that to an already moist atmosphere, we're looking at the several rounds of heavy rain.

If you think about it, this system is a great sight to see from the models.  Central Arkansas has been battling grass fires left and right lately.  With this incredibly slow moving storm system we can certainly put an end to the fire danger in the region.

 

(FOX 16 weather model showing 1-4" of rain through Friday evening)

(HPC forecast of rainfall from Thursday to Sunday.)

On the flip side, we may get too much rain at one time.  Weather models are painting a very wet picture of 2-5" of rain through the upcoming weekend.  For some local creeks and rivers this maybe too much to handle.  Of course, we'll keep an eye on this development in the next few days.

In addition to the flood threat, we can't completely rule out some severe weather either.  When the storm system initially comes down on Thursday we could be looking at a few intense storms forming along the cold front.  The main threat would only be hail and flash flooding but it's still worth noting.

So just hold off on the car wash and have those umbrellas ready to go.  We're about to go through a wet pattern in the near future.



 

Friday's Tornado Outbreak

As predicted, the severe weather never happened in the Natural Sate last week. All that we experienced on Friday was a breezy wind and abnormally warm temperatures.

On the other hand, states to the east of Arkansas endured a massive tornado outbreak.

It is now said that over 100 tornadoes touched down from Alabama to Southern Indiana.  The worst hit area was Henryville, IN where an EF-4 tornado ravaged the town and leaving the high school building in ruins.

All of this incredible damage came from an intense area of low pressure that started in our background and raced toward the Great Lakes.  Meanwhile, a large supply of gulf moisture spread throughout the Tennessee and Ohio Valley providing for an endless fuel for these intense storms to fire up.

At this stage, Arkansas dodged a huge bullet in March but the season is just getting started...

Update on Friday's Severe Storms

All week long we've been advertising the threat for severe weather in Arkansas on Friday...but now it appears that the threat has shifted eastward towards Tennessee, Kentucky, Northern Alabama and Southern Ohio.

                        (Updated SPC SREF model showing the tornado threat shifting eastward)

The latest weather models, including our own at FOX 16, are suggesting that the strong surface low will move very quickly - so quickly that it won't allow all the ingredients to come together in Arkansas. Inevitably the storms will likely develop near the eastern border around the lunch hour and progress through the Tennessee Valley by the afternoon.

                                              (SPC convective outlook for tomorrow.)

We're not the only ones who believe most of the storms will miss the Natural State.  The folks at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman are on the same page.  Their latest convective outlook highlight the same region for getting the damaging thunderstorms.

This is not to say a few towns in Eastern Arkansas won't see an intense storm but the chances are beginning to dwindle.  Unless this upcoming storm system slows down to a good degree, we'll probably escape another severe weather outbreak in the nation.