At this time scattered showers are parading around Eastern Arkansas and advancing to the northeast at a good clip. Meanwhile back in Central Arkansas we are experiencing a cloudy site and breezy winds. Temperatures are hovering well into the 70's and will stay there for the next several hours.
There is still a slight concern about what will transpire in Northeast Arkansas early this evening. If a few thunderstorms can break a solid cap (a layer of warm air caught in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that prevent storms from erupting) then we could see severe storms break out. So far, this doesn't look to happen but we'll be on guard in the FOX 16 weather center.
Our main focus is geared toward what will take place overnight (mainly 1-6am). A strong surface low will shift to the Mid-West and dangle a cold front to it's south. As the front approaches Arkansas there will be enough moisture and convergence for a line of thunderstorms to develop. If this line is able to get going then we have an opportunity for straight-line winds to carry through the state. Of course, embedded in this line we could have enough rotation for brief and weak tornadoes to form. The greatest risk for a tornado will be mainly north/northeast of I-40 where they'll be greater rotation near the surface low.
A couple models are hinting that we'll barely get a downpour in here while others are suggesting the storms to move through the state just before the morning rush hour. Either way, we'll be in the weather center watching the radar closely. If any storms show signs of being tornadic will let you know on air. Until then be safe and get a good night sleep.
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