Strong Storms Still Possible Overnight

At this time scattered showers are parading around Eastern Arkansas and advancing to the northeast at a good clip.  Meanwhile back in Central Arkansas we are experiencing a cloudy site and breezy winds.  Temperatures are hovering well into the 70's and will stay there for the next several hours.

There is still a slight concern about what will transpire in Northeast Arkansas early this evening.  If a few thunderstorms can break a solid cap (a layer of warm air caught in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that prevent storms from erupting) then we could see severe storms break out.  So far, this doesn't look to happen but we'll be on guard in the FOX 16 weather center.

Our main focus is geared toward what will take place overnight (mainly 1-6am).  A strong surface low will shift to the Mid-West and dangle a cold front to it's south.  As the front approaches Arkansas there will be enough moisture and convergence for a line of thunderstorms to develop.  If this line is able to get going then we have an opportunity for straight-line winds to carry through the state.  Of course, embedded in this line we could have enough rotation for brief and weak tornadoes to form.  The greatest risk for a tornado will be mainly north/northeast of I-40 where they'll be greater rotation near the surface low.

A couple models are hinting that we'll barely get a downpour in here while others are suggesting the storms to move through the state just before the morning rush hour.  Either way, we'll be in the weather center watching the radar closely. If any storms show signs of being tornadic will let you know on air.  Until then be safe and get a good night sleep.

More Severe Weather in February

From 6" of snow to a few weak tornadoes, Arkansas has been through a wild February and there are no signs of that stopping soon.

Today the National Weather Service released there full tornado report for Thursday's event.  There were three tornadoes that dropped in Central Arkansas.  All of the twisters were similar in the fact that they were very weak and carved out around less than 10 mile path.  Plus, no major injuries were identified.

As this information came out today, the Storm Predicition Center in Norman issued a MODERATE RISK of severe weather in Arkansas for Sunday night and into Monday morning.  If you don't understand this outlook that's understandable.  It's meant to impact the meteorology community more than the public.  When you break it down, it just means there is a medium-high chance we'll experience an episode of severe weather.

Anyways, the worst threat are tornadoes and very fast straight line winds.  Here is a quick summary for you. An area of low pressure will race across Missouri while a cold front lingering below it will sweep through Arkansas.  Out ahead of the front there will be enough lift for storms to develop in the state.  Since there will be a good amount of rotation in the atmosphere storms will have the ability to have spinning updrafts which could lead to a brief tornado.

THE GOOD NEWS: Since the front won't fire up any storms until late Sunday and into early Monday morning, there won't be a ton of instability in our atmosphere.  That hurts the chances of a strong tornado going through our region.  Secondly, the storms are likely to form into a line which limits the chances of a tornado developing.

THE BAD NEWS: If enough rotation manages to develop within the line of storms we could have small, brief tornadoes that touch down when the public is least aware of it (during the overnight hours when they're likely asleep).  In addition to that, any tornadoes that form will likely be hard to identify due to the night time atmosphere and possible rain wrapping around it.

At this time we haven't issued a Severe Weather Alert Day but to be just on the safe side have your NOAA weather radio ready to go Sunday night and into Monday morning.  If you hear any alarms from that or hear a siren outside your door tune to FOX 16 for the latest information.  We'll continue to monitor the atmosphere for you and give you the breaking news in the weather department.

Tornado Outbreak...Not Likely

Latest radar and model analysis show a defined line of thunderstorms moving through Western Arkansas early this afternoon. The line should progress eastward for the rest of the daylight hours.

Out ahead of the line, we're waiting to see if any discrete storms develop. If they do, that would mean we could still see a tornado in the state today. At the moment the ingredients are just not gelling together. The most unstable air is not interacting with the highest wind shear. Keep in mind, there is still time for these two main ingredients to come together to produce a tornadic storm. We're just not seeing it at this time.

When the main line of storms rushes through Central Arkansas early this evening we'll be done with the severe threat. Afterwords, our weather will calm down a couple days.

Tornado Threat for Today

Severe weather could impact the great state of Arkansas later today. The latest short term models continue to indicate that a few discrete storms could produce tornadoes in our state. The greatest threat will come in between 2-9pm.

Eventually, the isolated storms will form into a solid line and be out of Arkansas by the time your going to bed tonight.

If you're wondering about who has the greatest threat of seeing a tornado just check out the video above.

Severe Weather Approaches...

Severe weather is right around corner. More details about the event is posted in the video.

Little Roller Coaster Ride

Temperatures are going to swing a bit this week. More details about that and the strong storms possibly on Thursday. Enjoy.

Clouds, Clouds, Clouds

More clouds heading for Arkansas this weekend. Are there signs of cool weather coming back to Arkansas? The answer is found in the video. Enjoy.

Spring Feeling in the Air

Happy Valentine's Day everyone.

Today was a remarkable day where temperatures got comfortable in the low 70's and the sun was shinning all across the state.  Just wish we could bottle this up and use it for a later date.

In the short term we'll witness more clouds moving through the region.  Even with the lack of sunshine, we'll have our winds continue to hold from the south.  In other words, we'll stay mild in the 60's and 70's the rest of the week.  At the moment, the models are suggesting some patchy drizzle/light showers trying to come in around Thursday and Friday morning.  Overall, were not expecting folks to bust out the umbrella but using the windshield wipers is not out of the question.

Looking past this upcoming weekend, we'll watch a weak cold front slide through early next week and give us a shot at some measurable rain.  Temperatures won't stumble that much and should remain in the 60's.

60's Down The Home Stretch

Each city in Arkansas was able to bask in the winter sunshine today. Hopefully you got a chance to enjoy it.  Here is quick overview of what to expect in the next few days.

TONIGHT: Our sky will stay mostly clear throughout the overnight hours.  Temperatures will stumble down to the low-mid 30's with winds staying light out of the southwest.

TOMORROW:  Another great day on the way. We'll feel the surface winds pick up up a little more from the southwest on Sunday.  In the long run we'll benefit from it with temperatures spiking up well into the mid 60's.  A few locations will even get a shot at the upper 60's.  Sunshine will remain fairly dominant across the region.

MONDAY:  On Valentine's Day we'll see another good dose of sunshine while temperatures climb right back to the 60's.  If you have any plans taking your special someone out to dinner it looks decent at this point with temperatures dropping to the 50's.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND: Low clouds will begin to infiltrate our sky and temperatures will be near or a couple degrees into the 60's.  Spotty drizzle is not out of the question either for Thursday or Friday.  The good news is that there are no signs of the cold arctic air or snow returning to the state for the rest of February (YES!!!)

I'll show you if the mild streak will last into next weekend at FOX 16 News at nine.  Until then have a wonderful day!

Let The Melting Begin

All day sunshine will help temperatures surge to the low 40's this afternoon. Will it be warmer this weekend and next week? Check out the video for more details.

Snow Total Tally!

Here is a comprehensive list of snow totals from the National Weather Service in Little Rock from the February 9th storm.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CST THU FEB 10 2011

...SNOW TOTALS IN THE LITTLE ROCK CWA FOR FEBRUARY 9TH...

AMOUNT  CITY                COUNTY

20.0    12 S JASPER         NEWTON
19.5    PONCA               NEWTON
17.5    3 N DEER            NEWTON
15.0    JASPER              NEWTON
14.0    DEER                NEWTON
12.0    1.5 W EVERTON       BOONE
12.0    PARTHENON           NEWTON
11.0    1 NE BEE BRANCH     VAN BUREN
11.0    1 W BIRDTOWN        CONWAY
11.0    GASSVILLE           BAXTER
11.0    2 SW MARSHALL       SEARCY
11.0    NOGO                POPE
11.0    TILLY               POPE
10.0    BIRDTOWN            CONWAY
10.0    CLINTON             VAN BUREN
10.0    DAMASCUS            VAN BUREN
10.0    GILBERT             SEARCY
10.0    HARRISON            BOONE
10.0    1 SSE MOUNTAIN HOME BAXTER
10.0    3 NNE MOUNTAIN HOME BAXTER
10.0    VALLEY SPRINGS      BOONE
10.0    WESTERN GROVE       NEWTON
9.0     ATKINS              POPE
9.0     4 S CENTER RIDGE    CONWAY
9.0     12 ESE CHIMES       VAN BUREN
9.0     1 S DOVER           POPE
9.0     LONG POOL           POPE
9.0     HATTIEVILLE         CONWAY
9.0     MOUNT MAGAZINE      LOGAN
9.0     SCOTLAND            VAN BUREN
8.0     ALPENA/5 NW BATAVIA BOONE
8.0     CONWAY              FAULKNER
8.0     3 NW DARDANELLE     YELL
8.0     MARSHALL            SEARCY
8.0     NEWNATA             STONE
8.0     QUITMAN             CLEBURNE
8.0     4 S YELLVILLE       MARION
7.8     AUSTIN              LONOKE
7.8     DANVILLE            YELL
7.8     ALEXANDER           SALINE
7.8     RUSSELLVILLE        POPE
7.6     PETIT JEAN STATE PK CONWAY
7.5     BRYANT              SALINE
7.5     FLIPPIN             MARION
7.5     MORRILTON           CONWAY
7.5     POTTSVILLE          POPE
7.0     BAUXITE             SALINE
7.0     2 W BEEBE           WHITE
7.0     3 S FRANKLIN        IZARD
7.0     2 S GIBSON          PULASKI
7.0     7 W LITTLE ROCK     PULASKI
7.0     3 NE MACON          PULASKI
7.0     MOUNTAIN VIEW       STONE
7.0     SHERWOOD            PULASKI
6.8     CONWAY              FAULKNER
6.8     2 E GRAVEL RIDGE    PULASKI
6.5     BLACKWELL           CONWAY
6.5     HASKELL             SALINE
6.5     LITTLE ROCK CAPITOL PULASKI
6.5     PEEL                MARION
6.4     3 SE MORGAN         PULASKI
6.2     NORTH LITTLE ROCK   PULASKI
6.2     SHERIDAN            GRANT
6.0     BEAR CREEK SPRINGS  BOONE
6.0     BLAKEMORE           LONOKE
6.0     BULL SHOALS         MARION
6.0     CHEROKEE VILLAGE    SHARP
6.0     DE WITT             ARKANSAS
6.0     5 NE FERNDALE       PULASKI
6.0     8 N HARTMAN         JOHNSON
6.0     MALVERN             HOT SPRING
6.0     MAUMELLE            PULASKI
6.0     MCCRORY             WOODRUFF
6.0     PERRY               PERRY
6.0     SCOTT               PULASKI
5.9     LITTLE ROCK AIRPORT PULASKI
5.9     STUTTGART           ARKANSAS
5.9     WOOSTER             FAULKNER
5.7     BRINKLEY            MONROE
5.5     LAKEWAY             MARION
5.5     1 N SEARCY          WHITE
5.3     WALDRON             SCOTT
5.0     AMITY               CLARK
5.0     GLENWOOD            PIKE
5.0     MABELVALE           PULASKI
5.0     MENA                POLK
5.0     MONTONGO            DREW
5.0     MOUNT IDA           MONTGOMERY
5.0     PINE BLUFF          JEFFERSON
5.0     STAR CITY           LINCOLN
5.0     STEPROCK            WHITE
5.0     3 NE RED OAK        GARLAND
5.0     SEARCY              WHITE
5.0     SUMMIT              MARION
4.5     BISMARCK            HOT SPRING
4.5     CLARENDON           MONROE
4.5     WASHITA             MONTGOMERY
4.0     ANTOINE             PIKE
4.0     BATESVILLE          INDEPENDENCE
4.0     DUMAS               DESHA
4.0     MONTICELLO          DREW
4.0     MURFREESBORO        PIKE
4.0     NEWPORT             JACKSON
4.0     RISON               CLEVELAND
4.0     SHERRILL            JEFFERSON
4.0     WARREN              BRADLEY
3.5     MOUNT IDA           MONTGOMERY
3.5     PARKS               SCOTT
3.3     8 ESE HAMPTON       CALHOUN
3.1     5 ESE MOUNT IDA     MONTGOMERY
3.0     2 N ARKADELPHIA     CLARK
3.0     CAMDEN              OUACHITA
3.0     FORDYCE             DALLAS
3.0     KELSO               DESHA

---

Light Snow Ending...

We're almost done with the accumulating snowfall in Central Arkansas.  More snowfall totals are coming into our studio at this time.  Here is a list for you....as of 2:30pm

Little Rock 4-5"
Searcy       4.5"
Russellville 6.0"
Austin        6.0"
Clinton       9.0"
Harrison     9.0"

White Out!

A heavy band of snow is plowing through the heart of Arkansas this afternoon, including Little Rock.  This batch of snow will carry in a good 2-3" of snow in Central Arkansas within the next hour or two.  After checking out our tower cam outside, it is near white out conditions, so please be careful outside.

As we've been advertising, the heaviest snow will be gone by the mid afternoon and we'll be left with light snow/flurries afterwords early this evening.  Accumulating snow should be done as we get to sunset.

Temperatures will stumble back to the teens tonight as the clouds slowly fade back to the east.


SNOWFALL TOTALS (as of 12pm)

Little Rock               2.5"
Conway                   5.5"
Pine Bluff                 2.5"
Clinton                     9.0"
Fayetteville          18.0"  (WOW!)

Oh Snow You Didn't

                                                          (Mount Ida - Glenna Lybrand)

Another massive winter storm is moving across Arkansas at this hour.  Light to moderate snow bands are crossing over Little Rock and will not stop until we get to the late afternoon/evening hours.  We are already receiving reports of almost a foot of snow in Fayetteville. Total accumulations will be around 3-5" in Central Arkansas with local amounts getting close to an half foot.

Since temperatures are locked into the 20's, the snow that does fall today will immediately stick to the roads and grassy surfaces.  Inevitably, the roads will be slick and in some cases to our northwest will be downright nasty.

During the overnight hours we'll have the clouds slowly depart from here and allow temperatures to sink to the low-mid teens.

Plenty of sunshine will head this way Thursday and Friday which should help melt off the snow pack.  By Saturday we anticipate all of the snow to be off the ground in the state of Arkansas.

We'll have more updates coming  in the afternoon.  Have a wonderful and safe day!

The Countdown to Snow

In less than 24 hours we'll have a snow storm plow through Central Arkansas...

The latest computer analysis this morning reveals a downward trend with the snowfall total on Wednesday. Were no longer seeing indications of more than 8" of snow for Little Rock and Central Arkansas. Instead most models are showing toward 4-6" of snowfall at this time.  That is a great sign.  The worst case scenario is that the North American Mesoscale Model verifies and we get 8" of snow.  Judging by the latest dynamics and forcing, that doesn't seem possible.  Nevertheless, the event will still produce a significant amount of snow in our region and will cause poor travel conditions.  We still believe that higher elevation areas to our west/northwest will produce the highest snowfall totals with a range of 8-10".

In terms of timing, the snow storm should arrive sometime between 6-8am and give us the heaviest snow around the noon hour.  Then the snow should come to an end in the evening period.

Once we're done with the event early Wednesday evening it will be colder with thermometers into the teens.  On Thursday we'll barely get back to the upper 20's.  By Friday morning, we could some spots get close to the single digits.  Finally, with enough sunshine and warm air advection we'll probably get above freezing Friday afternoon.

A nice warming trend will be in store for us this upcoming weekend and most of next week.  Stay tuned as we continue to track this impressive band of snow through The Natural State.

Big Snow Storm On The Horizon

A wicked winter storm has its sights aimed at Arkansas. If you want the details and warmer forecast ahead click on the video.

Storms A Coming...

TODAY: A cloudy morning will give way to a partly sunny sky this afternoon.  Temperatures that were once thought to be in the mid 40's will exceed expectations and surge to the low 50's today.  Meanwhile spotty showers will hover around Northwest and Southwest Arkansas.

TONIGHT: An upper level low will force it's way in here overnight into early Monday morning.  Creating an environment for scattered showers to roam free and temperatures falling to the 40's and 30's.  While you're coming back from the Super Bowl party we'll still have liquid precipitation falling.  Yet after midnight, there could be enough cold air advection (winds carrying cold air into our region) that our precipitation may switch over to a wintry mix or possibly snowflakes.

TOMORROW MORNING: Since temperatures were well above freezing today and temperatures will be hovering around freezing early tomorrow morning, we suspect that the roads will NOT accumulate any snow/ice.  However other surfaces such as your grass or your car could see an inch or more.  Roads will be wet and a little slick but for the most part driveable.

REST OF MONDAY: Clouds will slowly depart and we'll have temperatures aim for the 40's.

WEDNESDAY: Still looks bad at this point.  An surface low will get tangled up on the Gulf Coast of Texas and head east-northeast.  On the backside of the system, we'll see heavy snow fall over most of Central Arkansas.  It is hard to pinpoint how much we'll see this early but it does look more than 2 to 3".  This looks almost on par with the snow storm we saw earlier on January 9th so be prepared.  The storm system won't be done with the snow until early Thursday morning.  Of course we'll have more updates coming up on FOX 16 this evening after the big game.

The rest of this upcoming work week will be cold with temperatures at or just below freezing.  The nice warm up looks to be coming one week from today with temperatures back in the upper 40's/low 50's range.

There you go, you've just been filled in.  Have a great Super Bowl Sunday!  Go Pack! Go!

Sunshine, We've Missed You

Sunshine returns for this Saturday with temperatures creeping up above freezing into the low 40's. Is there another round of heavy snow coming our way? Check out the video for details.

UPDATE: Snow Winding Down

                                       (Snow in Hot Springs, AR courtesy of Carlton Robbins)

A stubborn upper level storm system is continuing to bring snow showers and a wintry mix through Arkansas early this afternoon.

Snow is no longer falling in the southwest corner of the state where earlier this morning snowfall totals ranged from 2” to 4”.  Snowfall accumulations vary across the state but early indications show West and Southwest Arkansas were the hardest hit.  Mena has officially reported 5” of snow while Hot Springs is reporting nearly 3”.  Road conditions in this part of the state are poor and will not improve through the day.

Meanwhile in Central Arkansas snowfall has mainly accumulated on the grassy areas thanks to temperatures barely hanging onto 30 degrees.  Total accumulations on grass surface look to be small with totals reaching close to an inch or less.  The roads will remain wet for the afternoon hours but still have the potential of turning a little icy this evening.

The cluster of light/moderate snow will shift northeast allowing Central Arkansas to dry out by the middle of the afternoon.  Toward the evening hours, there will be flurries looming over Northern Arkansas but accumulations are not expected to occur.

Through the overnight hours our temperatures will slowly tip toe back to the upper-mid 20’s.  With temperatures staying in this neighborhood there is the potential for left over liquid to freeze up on portions of the road so you should be careful traveling early Saturday morning.

Dry air will rush into Arkansas late tomorrow morning.  This event will help usher in a good amount of sunshine through noon and afternoon hours.  With sunshine and temperatures expected to surge back to the low-mid 40’s, we should melt off most of the snow we receive today.

Early Snowfall Totals for Friday

Hello everyone, I hope you're enjoying the winter scenery outside.  Here are some early snowfall totals we've received from the NWS and local viewers.

FOX 16 (on grass)     0.5"
Bismarck                   1.5"
Antoine                      2.5"
Pearcy                       2.2"
Clarksville                  2.5"
Texarkana                  6.5"
Magnolia                    3"

As I suggested earlier, the larger amount of snowfall is being found mainly south and southwest of Little Rock.  In the downtown region, it looks like snowfall accumulations could reach around 1-2"  in the afternoon hours.  The roads are holding up except for bridges and overpasses.  We are not seeing a large accumulation on our roads thanks to temperatures hovering near or just a degree below 30 degrees.  We'll have more snowfall totals tonight and update you on the road conditions later this afternoon/evening.

More Snow Today

  
Today is a Severe Weather Alert Day so be careful as you travel.

TODAY: An upper level low is interacting with moisture this morning and that is leading to moderate snowfall across much of Arkansas.  Based on the latest short term models and the radar trends were looking at 1-3" of snow at this time.  A few local regions could receive as much as 4".  It looks as though Southern Arkansas will be the hardest hit with snow.  Most of the accumulating snow should come to an end sometime late this afternoon or evening.  Some flurries will be left over during the nighttime period mainly north of I-40.

Since temperatures will be below freezing the entire day in (the upper 20's near 30 degrees) the snow will stick quickly on the roads and sidewalk areas thus creating slippery conditions on the roads.  If you must travel, we encouraged you to go incredibly slow on the roads and allow plenty of distance between you and other drivers.   We've already heard about numerous accidents on I-30 near Benton so again be very careful today.

TONIGHT: We'll be left with flurries and cloudy conditions.  Temperatures will slowly sink to the low to mid 20's which means any roads that go untreated will still be very slippery.  Those roads that are treated will be decent.

YOUR WEEKEND: Saturday, the clouds will slowly peal back and reveal sunshine in the afternoon hours.  Despite the snow pack on the ground we should get temperatures near 40 degrees which should help melt off most of the snow.  Clouds may return for Super Bowl Sunday with temperatures getting above freezing again in the  mid to upper 40's.  Also, a brief period of snow may fall in Northwest Arkansas during the evening hours while light rain/sleet mix may fall for a short period of time in Central Arkansas.

Sunshine, Where Art Thou?

A cloudy sky and below freezing temperatures are on tab today. Light snow is also in the forecast for the next couple days. For more details check out the video.

Groundhog Calls for Early Spring

Today is Groundhog's Day and that means it is time to talk about winter forecasting in the worst way.  For those of you who have not heard, Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning.  This event means  winter will be ending sooner than normal.

I wish the woodchuck was right but looking at the science I might have to disagree with him.  The current upper level flow and model projections promise a bitterly cold streak to last well through February and early March.

Next week alone could be very frigid with another arctic cold front slipping through the Natural State.

Of course as I write this, the Climate Predicition Center is calling for above normal temperatures in Arkansas as we move through February, March and April.  Only time will tell if the CPC or the woodchuck are correct.  

Very Cold This Week and Early Next Week

If you think today is cold or unsettling just check out what is coming our way next week.  Check out the link.

Massive Winter Storm Underway

A major winter storm system is underway across the region. Freezing rain now causing icy and dangerous conditions across North Central Arkansas from Mountain Home to Fayetteville.

Heavy snow is crippling North Texas and Oklahoma with thundersnow around the Dallas area this morning. The rare winter storm shut down DFW airport in Dallas this morning because of heavy snow and wind. Around the Tulsa area, snow amounts are already exceeding a foot in some spots.

The rain will change over to snow this morning across Northwest Arkansas with accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near the Fayetteville area, while freezing rain will likely continue North of Marshall including Mountain Home and Harrison where ice will begin to bring down trees and power lines.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue across Central Arkansas with nearly an inch of rain so far around Little Rock.

Latest short term models suggest the storm will be quickly exiting Arkansas through the afternoon hours.  More information is posted in the video.