Thursday PM Rain & Storms

A strong Fall cold front brings the threat of rain and storms into Arkansas Today, followed by a big cool down for the end of the week. The front will bring some strong to severe storms into the State this evening, with potentially strong, gusty winds. Storms will begin to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours across Western and Northwest Arkansas

The storms will quickly organize into a squall line and rapidly push into Central Arkansas later during the evening hours.

Some of the storms will be strong to severe due to a warm and moist environment and an upper air disturbance associated with the front. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Arkansas under a Slight Risk area for severe storms for Thursday evening.

The main threat from the line of storms will be some potentially strong, damaging wind gusts. Hail is also possible, especially over Western Arkansas as the storms first begin to develop. The hail threat will diminish as the storms evolve into a line. An isolated tornado threat exists as well, due to some moderately strong wind shear in the atmosphere. This may cause a couple of spin ups along the line of storms. The threat from flooding is low due to fast moving nature of the front, but some isolated heavy rainfall is possible in a couple of spots.

Most of Arkansas has been quite dry over the last couple of weeks, and most areas could benefit from some rain. Many spots have a good shot of over an inch of rain, with some heavier amounts in a couple of spots. Here is one of the computer projections showing this scenario.

Most of the storms will push out by early Friday morning, followed by much cooler and drier air. A real Fall feel returns by Friday evening into Saturday. Highs by Saturday will stay in the 60s even with bright sunshine.