At least 2 Tornadoes Confirmed

A line of storms produced wind damage and isolated tornadoes across Arkansas Monday morning. At least 2 tornadoes have been confirmed so far. Additional tornado tracks may be found over the next couple of days. Here are the preliminary storm reports from Monday

The National Weather Service in Little Rock confirmed an EF-1 tornado in Lonoke County just North of England. These are the results of the Lonoke County storm survey:

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/13/2014 TORNADO EVENT...

.TORNADO #1...ENGLAND TORNADO

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    85-90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  3.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   150 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             OCT 13 2014
START TIME:             927 AM CDT
START LOCATION:         2.2 W ENGLAND AR /LONOKE COUNTY/
START LAT/LON:          34.5441 / -92.0074

END DATE:               OCT 13 2014
END TIME:               932 AM CDT
END LOCATION:           2.3 N ENGLAND AR /LONOKE COUNTY/
END LAT/LON:            34.5768 / -92.9649

SURVEY SUMMARY:

THE TORNADO BEGAN NEAR THE ENGLAND COUNTRY CLUB...WHERE LARGE TREE LIMBS
WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG ARKANSAS HWY 161. ABOUT TWO MILES NORTH OF ENGLAND
...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CENTRAL HIGH SCHOOL ROAD AND HENDERSON ROAD
...THREE STRUCTURES THAT WERE DAMAGED BY AN EF1 TORNADO ON OCTOBER 2ND
WERE HIT AGAIN. PART OF THE METAL ROOF WAS TAKE OFF A TRACTOR SHED...
AND AN OLD FARM SHOP WAS BLOWN DOWN. A HOUSE HAD DAMAGE TO A WALL...PART
OF A FENCE BLOWN DOWN...DAMAGE TO A SWIMMING POOL...YARD ORNAMENTS WERE
BLOWN AROUND...AND TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED OFF. ALSO...A LARGE
INTERMODAL SHIPPING CONTAINER...BEING USED FOR STORAGE...WAS FLIPPED
ON ITS SIDE.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200MPH

The National Weather Service in Shreveport also confirmed an EF-2 tornado in Ashdown in Little River County in Southwest Arkansas from early this morning. This tornado was responsible for one death and several injuries. The Weather Service is in the process of completing this survey.

Severe Weather Alert Day

Update: Storm Prediction upgrades much of Central and Eastern Arkansas to MODERATE risk of storms with enhanced threat for strong to violent tornadoes by later this morning and early this afternoon.

A powerful storm system pushing through the Southern Plains pushes a strong cold front across Arkansas Monday. Warm, moist Gulf air will quickly pushing North ahead of the front is fueling storm development this morning. Storms will push through Western Arkansas during the morning hours.

The line of storms will quickly push East during the mid-morning hours toward Central Arkansas. The exact timing of the storms is uncertain, but the most likely time frame for Central Arkansas is between 8 AM and Noon today.

The line of storms pushes into Eastern Arkansas during the early afternoon.

The line of storms is moving into an environment of strong wind shear, which will enhance the threat for severe storms. The main risk will be damaging straight line winds with the threat for spin ups along the squall line. This means there will be a tornado threat with any stronger cells along the line. Isolated hail and flash flooding are also possible.

All storms will move out the State by Monday evening. Pay close attention to watches and warnings Monday and be prepared to take action if necessary. Make sure to also secure any loose items in and around your house.

Thursday PM Rain & Storms

A strong Fall cold front brings the threat of rain and storms into Arkansas Today, followed by a big cool down for the end of the week. The front will bring some strong to severe storms into the State this evening, with potentially strong, gusty winds. Storms will begin to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours across Western and Northwest Arkansas

The storms will quickly organize into a squall line and rapidly push into Central Arkansas later during the evening hours.

Some of the storms will be strong to severe due to a warm and moist environment and an upper air disturbance associated with the front. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Arkansas under a Slight Risk area for severe storms for Thursday evening.

The main threat from the line of storms will be some potentially strong, damaging wind gusts. Hail is also possible, especially over Western Arkansas as the storms first begin to develop. The hail threat will diminish as the storms evolve into a line. An isolated tornado threat exists as well, due to some moderately strong wind shear in the atmosphere. This may cause a couple of spin ups along the line of storms. The threat from flooding is low due to fast moving nature of the front, but some isolated heavy rainfall is possible in a couple of spots.

Most of Arkansas has been quite dry over the last couple of weeks, and most areas could benefit from some rain. Many spots have a good shot of over an inch of rain, with some heavier amounts in a couple of spots. Here is one of the computer projections showing this scenario.

Most of the storms will push out by early Friday morning, followed by much cooler and drier air. A real Fall feel returns by Friday evening into Saturday. Highs by Saturday will stay in the 60s even with bright sunshine.