Weekend Storms

A strong area of low pressure ejecting into the Plains this weekend will trigger widespread storms through the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major outbreak of severe weather with a high potential for tornadoes for parts of The Plains States on Saturday. The SPC has issued a rare day 2 HIGH risk area for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa valid for Saturday.

As a matter of fact, the Storm Prediction Center has only issued a high risk a full day in advance only ONCE prior to today. The setup is a classic scenario for a tornado outbreak along Tornado Alley as a strong upper air disturbance pushes out of the Rockies and interacts with warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. A very strong jet stream will create significant wind shear ahead of the cold front, allowing storms that do develop to quickly begin to rotate. The warm, moist air will aid to sustain the storms.

The severe risk transitions East as the frontal boundary pushes toward Arkansas on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for parts of Arkansas Sunday. The slight risk does include an area of an enhanced risk of severe weather shaded in purple, where there may be the potential for especially strong storms.

The main risk with Sunday's round of severe weather will be very strong, damaging wind gusts, although a tornado threat may exist as well. It is still too soon to determine what kind of tornado potential will develop, but that will become more clear as we progress through the weekend.

As for the timing, storms will approach Western and Northwest Arkansas by Sunday afternoon.

The line of storms will consolidate Sunday evening as it pushes into Central Arkansas. The main risk for sever weather in Central Arkansas will be mainly between 5 PM and Midnight.

Storms will continue into Eastern and Southeast Arkansas by early Monday morning, however the severe risk will diminish somewhat.