Sunday Severe Weather Threat

It certainly doesn't feel like a day with the potential for strong storms with cool temperatures, drizzle and fog, but conditions are coming together for a severe threat for parts of Arkansas. A warm front is quickly advancing into Central Arkansas bringing warm moist Gulf air in advance of an approaching cold front. As this cold front along with a strong upper air disturbance begins to interact with the warmer air, thunderstorms will develop across Central Arkansas. Below is the severe threat from the Storm Prediction Center for tonight. The moderate area represents a considerable threat for severe weather, including damaging winds, hail, and possible tornadoes. This area is mainly East of Pine Bluff, Lonoke, and Searcy. The slight risk area in yellow represents a lower risk category, but some strong storms are still possible.

Below is the time table from our high resolution model showing storm development. Showers will become more widespread after 5 PM, with some storms developing over Central Arkansas by around 7PM

 Storms will quickly intensify during the evening hours as the move East toward Eastern Arkansas

 Storms will shift into Eastern Arkansas by 10 PM with the severe threat ending across Central Arkansas

Storms will push East across the Mississippi River by Midnight with a significant severe threat continuing into Tennessee, Mississippi and Kentucky