Sunday Cold Front...Severe Potential

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of Eastern Arkansas to a MODERATE risk. A cold front will approach Central Arkansas late this afternoon and early this evening with showers and some thunderstorms developing just ahead of the front. Storms will develop in the 5pm to 7pm time frame. These storms will quickly intensify and some will likely become severe as they move East late in the evening. Strong damaging winds, hail, and the threat of a tornado will exist with the storms. The greatest risk for severe weather for Eastern sections of the State will be from 7PM to 10PM, after which the severe threat will shift mainly East of the Mississippi River. Now is the time to plan for the possibility for severe weather, especially in the area in the Moderate Risk area.

Parts of the region will likely face the first potential widespread severe weather outbreak of the season late Sunday into Monday morning. A fast moving cold front will quickly move into Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Warmer temperatures and Gulf Moisture will surge Northward ahead of the front, however, there will be very limited time for the warm moist air to reach Central Arkansas before the front sweeps through. Storms will continue to increase ahead of the front as it moves East across the Mississippi River with possible widespread severe weather. Below is the outlook for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center Sunday into Sunday Night.

The cold front will approach Central Arkansas late Sunday afternoon with scattered showers developing along and ahead of the front. The marginal return of warm, unstable air will hinder storm development through the early evening hours. Below is our computer forecast for 6 PM on Sunday showing the cold front approaching the Little Rock area with showers and possibly a few developing thunderstorms.

The front will quickly race through Central Arkansas toward the Mississippi River later in the evening. As warm, humid air is transported North by a strong low level jet stream, storms will quickly intensify.

The cold front will also be accompanied by a fairly strong upper level disturbance, which will aid to increase wind shear over the mid-Mississippi Valley region. Combined with the strong low level jet and increasingly warm and moisture rich air at the surface, this will lead to a substantial tornado threat including the risk for strong tornadoes (EF2+ Intensity) The shaded area below shows the greatest risk for severe weather, including tornadoes for Sunday night and Monday morning

Notice this includes parts of Eastern Arkansas, however the front should completely clear the State by 10 PM, which will end the severe threat for Arkansas. Parts of Northern Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky and Alabama could face a very damaging wind and tornado outbreak overnight Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center may upgrade parts of the shaded blue area into a moderate risk.