Winter Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced its Winter Outlook for 2011-2012, which is fairly similar to the outlook from last year. The main driving force behind the forecast is La Nina, which is the cooling of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina winters typically favor a strong polar jet stream, which keeps the storm track farther North. This results in generally warmer and drier than normal conditions across much of the South and Southeast. Unfortunately, this is the same pattern that resulted in the extreme drought conditions for Texas and the Southern Plains.

Below is the precipitation forecast, which shows an above average chance of a dry winter for much of the South, including Texas through the Gulf Coast. Arkansas is on the border of this area, with only a slightly above average chance of a dry winter mainly for the Southwestern half of the State.


As for temperatures, a strong polar jet stream will keep a sharp temperature gradient from North to South resulting in above average temperatures for the South and below average temperatures North. Much of Arkansas has an above normal chance of a milder than average Winter.



This should not be interpreted as Arkansas should expect consistent warm and dry conditions through the winter, as La Nina years also are known for fairly extreme fluctuations. Strong Arctic outbreaks into the South are still certainly possible as well as the potential for significant winter storms.