Trick Or Treat Forecast

If you are heading out Trick-Or-Treating tonight you better have a costume that is as warm as it is scary! Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. Here is your Trick-Or-Treat forecast for this evening. Be safe out there!

Winter Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced its Winter Outlook for 2011-2012, which is fairly similar to the outlook from last year. The main driving force behind the forecast is La Nina, which is the cooling of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina winters typically favor a strong polar jet stream, which keeps the storm track farther North. This results in generally warmer and drier than normal conditions across much of the South and Southeast. Unfortunately, this is the same pattern that resulted in the extreme drought conditions for Texas and the Southern Plains.

Below is the precipitation forecast, which shows an above average chance of a dry winter for much of the South, including Texas through the Gulf Coast. Arkansas is on the border of this area, with only a slightly above average chance of a dry winter mainly for the Southwestern half of the State.


As for temperatures, a strong polar jet stream will keep a sharp temperature gradient from North to South resulting in above average temperatures for the South and below average temperatures North. Much of Arkansas has an above normal chance of a milder than average Winter.



This should not be interpreted as Arkansas should expect consistent warm and dry conditions through the winter, as La Nina years also are known for fairly extreme fluctuations. Strong Arctic outbreaks into the South are still certainly possible as well as the potential for significant winter storms.

Colder Air Not Far Away

Mother Nature sure knows how to bring in a cold front.  Today the scenery is far from what we saw yesterday.  The sky is gloomy and dark.  Meanwhile, our ground is riddled with puddles from earlier storms.  On top of all that, temperatures are struggling just to stay in the 50's.

As a fellow northerner, this definitely reminds me of fall up in the Great Lakes.  Of course, we're no where near Detroit or Michigan for that matter so this weather pattern won't be sticking around for very long.

Whether you hate it or love it, the weather pattern will modify as we go into latter half of your work week.  We'll get plenty of sunshine in here with temperatures moving up to the 60's and 70's.

                              (One weather model showing storms and cold front for next week Wed.)

                         (GFS model showing high's for next week Thursday only in the 40's...yikes)

Looking down the road, I couldn't help but notice another strong cold front coming down the pike.  All of the long term models agree that another push of cold air is in the works by the middle of next week.  If I had to guess at this point, I would say this air is colder than the one we're going through today.  Bottom line, we're looking at high's in the 50's potentially the 40's in some spots.

Cool Snap

 
That warm summer feeling we've grown accustomed to in the last few days is about to go away...real fast.  Currently, a strong cold front is nipping on Arkansas heal and it won't be long before it sweeps through the state tonight.

                                  (FOX 16 weather model showing rain for tomorrow at 8a.m.)

As the front slices through the Natural State, we'll have a line of showers and thunderstorms roam through Central Arkansas.  Judging by the latest high resolution models, the storms should arrive after midnight and linger through a good portion of your morning commute.  If you're worried about severe weather tonight...don't be...this system will not have a lot of moisture or rotation associated with it.  There maybe the occasional gusty wind, small hail and lightning embedded in these storms but that's typical for this region.

                        (High resolution model showing a line of storms moving into Arkansas at 1a.m.)
                     
Once the front is through then buckle your seat belts its going to be a chilly, breezy ride through a good chunk of the work week.  Tuesday we'll have temperatures struggle to get out of the 50's (that's not factoring the 15-25 mph wind ahead) and we'll witness a gloomy site most of the day.  Wednesday shouldn't be better either despite more sunshine coming into the state.

After the breezy, cool air settles into Arkansas we'll steadily warm up through the end of the week.  High's for Thursday and Friday look warmer in the mid upper 60's while the weekend appears better with thermometers back into the 70's.

So regardless of what you're wearing now, get those long sleeves and coats ready.  They're about to get a lot of use soon.

Liquid Sunshine

                                                           (Radar image at 3pm today.)

At this point, October has been a bright sunny month for arkansans.  That all changed today, thanks to a weak cold front.  This frontal boundary provided a welcomed wet scenery in Central Arkansas.

                                               (Rainfall in the past 24 hours in Arkansas)

Preliminary rainfall reports show the greatest amount of rain fell over northern sections of the state near Fayetteville and Batesville.  Meanwhile Little Rock collected a little over a quarter of an inch of rain.

                                                (Current County Burn Bans in Arkansas)
                                       

Obviously, this rain event was needed but it barely made a dent (if any) on the drought situation in the state.  In the last several weeks we've fallen behind in the rainfall department.  With several sites only collecting less than an inch of rain.  That's not a positive sign when you consider we average over 4 inches of rain this month.  We can already see the effects rippling through county burn bans as we speak.

Could this rainy site be the turning point?  Not...really.  The way the upper level flow is presenting itself lately, it leads me to believe we'll be lucky to get another bout of rain this month.  I'll tell you what I believe the rest of fall/winter will turn out for Arkansas in the next blog post.  Until then have a great week and enjoy the puddles while you can. 

Dry Stretch for October

The beautiful weather has been a welcomed site for weeks...but it is time to start worrying about our lack of rain around here.  For the last several weeks our grass have been aching for rain drops in the Natural State.  You can tell just by looking at the graphic above.  It's hard enough to get clouds in here let alone rain drops.  Until today, we went over a week without even seeing a single cloud in the state!

                                      (Cirrus clouds today on Carver Magnet Elementary School's weatherBug camera)  

                                                              (Upper level high directly over Arkansas)

The main reason for the lack of rain or clouds for that matter is in response to the upper level high covering the Central Plains.  Lately this upper level high (ridge) has been giving off subsidence - where air gradually sinks over a broad area.  This subtle sinking motion prevents cloud droplets from forming and hinders your chance of rain.  Many people confuse this process because they think that rain gravitates to the ground.  Thus, you need sinking motion in the atmosphere to promote rain...but honestly it's exactly the opposite.

                  (GFS model shows rain by next week Tuesday)

                                  (European model shows rain for next week Wednesday)

There is hope for the future.  Several weather models indicate that the upper level high will break down sometime next week and allow a cold front to slip through the state.  This change in the flow will actually promote lift in the atmosphere and give us an opportunity for rain.  It's difficult to pinpoint exactly when this change will occur but it will be something to watch for in the next few days.

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