First freeze of the year

The first freeze of the season is expected tonight across most of Central Arkansas. Temperatures will drop to near or below freezing by early Tuesday morning bringing an end to the growing season. A freeze warning is in effect for most of Central and Southern Arkansas between Midnight and 8 AM Tuesday.

The freeze warning does not include areas that have already experienced a killing freeze this season. Low temperatures will drop to near freezing, with some spots falling down into the 20s, especially sheltered valley locations. Below are computer model forecast low temperatures for Tuesday morning.

Cold nights will be the rule this week with Canadian high pressure dominating weather across the Mid-South. Many locations will drop back to near freezing again Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Early Look at Thanksgiving

Walking through the newsroom and the super market today, I got bombarded with the same question - "What will Thanksgiving be like?"

Before I even begin to answer this question on this blog let me preface with this quick fact.  Forecasts that are 7-14 days out are extremely difficult to nail down and are usually inaccurate.  I know that won't shock you but it's the truth.  The only indications we can decipher is a general wet/dry pattern with a warm/cool air mass.

That being said, let's just take a sneak peak at some of the long range computer models and see if we can get at least an indicator of what's to come to the Natural State.

The European Model and our American model differ in solutions around Turkey Day so this won't be easy.  The European model or ECMWF (image above) brings a bright and cool air mass on Thanksgiving with highs in the 50's.  High pressure dominates the area and keeps it clear around here.

Meanwhile our American friend, the GFS, provides a different picture on the same day.  This model spits out rain showers in Southern Arkansas and gives us warmer temperatures in the 60's.

So which model is right?  They're both wrong but I believe, for now, that the European model has a better track record so I'll lean toward that solution.  Thus, at this moment, it looks mostly clear and cool for Thanksgiving.  Until we get into the weekend we won't know for sure how Thanksgiving will turn out but you asked so there you go...

Sunday Cold Front

Staying mild this weekend by November standards, but a cold front will bring rain, a few storms as well as much cooler air by the end of the weekend into early next week.
Most of the weekend will be dry, breezy and mild ahead of a cold front which approaches by late Sunday. The highest threat of rain will come along with the front Sunday evening into Sunday night.

Some thunderstorms are likely along the leading edge of rain associated with the front. Even though widespread severe weather is not expected, some of the storms may produce some locally gusty winds as they approach. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk for strong storms for most of Central Arkansas late Sunday.

The main risk associated with the storms will be some strong wind gusts. The rain may be heavy at times, but it will not last long enough to produce significant flooding. Given the lack individual storm cells ahead of the main line, the hail and tornado threat is quite low.

Significantly cooler air will move in behind the front late Sunday night and into the early part of next week with a return to more of a November feeling. High temperatures will drop from 70s over the weekend, to cool 50s by next week.

Weekend Cold Front

The first weekend of November will start off quite warm with near record high temperatures, but a cold front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms, as well as return to cooler air. High temperatures Saturday will reach the lower 80s with Southwest winds ahead of the front. The standing record high for Little Rock is 83 set in 1909. The record for North Little Rock is also 83 set in 2003. The forecast high for Saturday is also 83, so it's a good bet the record will at least be tied. Much cooler air will follow the front for Sunday, with highs well below average.

The cold front will advance into the State Saturday afternoon, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into Southern Arkansas later in the evening. A few showers will linger behind the front across Central Arkansas. Temperatures will cool off fairly quickly behind the front reaching the 50s before Midnight.

A few storms will likely develop along the front Saturday, but the overall severe weather threat is very low. There is a lack of strong upper air energy and the winds in the upper atmosphere are not conducive to sustaining strong storms. Below are the severe weather threats for thunderstorms Saturday evening.

A stray strong wind gust is not out of the question along with brief heavy downpours.

Historic Storm in the Atlantic

Hurricane Sandy continues to spin out in the Atlantic today and could end up becoming the strongest storm ever recorded for the Northeast.

As of this Saturday, Sandy is a weak category one hurricane with sustained winds hovering at 75 mph. The current center of the storm is moving northeast at slow pace of 11 mph and continues to hold together despite interacting with dry air at mid-level of the atmosphere.

The scary aspect of Sandy is not what is going on now but will be in the near future.  Between today and tomorrow, Sandy will get a major boost aloft.  The monster cyclone will interact with a strong upper level trough thousands of feet above us, which will enhance it to a large degree.  If you're wondering, this is the same trough that help bring in the cold front to Arkansas last Friday.

As Sandy progresses northward it will run into a strong blocking high pressure system.  Instead of  turning out to sea, Sandy will be sucked into an upper air channel that will force it to make a radical left hand turn straight to the New Jersey Shore by Monday evening.

You might be asking yourself, aren't hurricanes or tropical storms suppose to weaken as they head up north this time of year?  Is it the water too cold for a tropical system?

Usually you would be right, but this is a very bizarre setup.  The upper level trough I mentioned earlier will actually help this system rather than tear it apart.  It's extremely bizarre and unprecedented.  The upper air pattern will make for an interesting vortex where it will come ashore as a tropical storm but then act like a monstrous nor'easter.

                         (European model showing Sandy hitting New Jersey Monday night with a pressure of 960mb)

The track is not the only concern.  The slow movement and the intensity is a scary sight to see from the weather models.  As Sandy approaches the coastline Monday, it will likely sustain a minimum pressure of between 950-960mb.  That may not sound like much to you but let me put it this way.  The lowest pressure ever recorded in the Northeast was 946mb back when a hurricane hit Long Island in 1938.  That's impressive stuff for a Mid-Atlantic storm.

Even though Sandy will come ashore as a weak hurricane why is it a big deal?  Besides the fact this storm happens about once a century, it's going to reach a highly populated region.  Roughly 40-50 million people will be effected by this storm early next week.  Not to mention the laundry list of potential hazards are menacing.  There will be power outages lasting up to a week, major coastal flooding, tropical storm force winds and a foot of snow in the high terrain of West Virgina.

Anyway you slice it, this storm will be talked about for years to come.

Freeze Warning

Map updated to include more of West Central Arkansas

A Freeze Warning is in effect for North Central and much of West Central Arkansas early Saturday morning between 4 AM and 8 AM. Temperatures will fall to near freezing in some spots within the freeze warning area.

The freeze warning includes areas such as Searcy, Batesville, Conway, Heber Springs, Russellville, Hot Springs, Mt Ida and Mena. The warning does not include Pulaski County or the Little Rock area. Outside the freeze warning area, low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive outdoor plants and irrigation systems should be turned off and drained. Pets should not be left outdoors.

Below are computer model forecast temperatures for Saturday morning, showing widespread 30s across the State, with well below freezing temperatures for Northwest Arkansas

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend into early next week.

A Real Halloween Scare - Sandy's Impact

There might be a real Halloween scare for the eastern portion of the country next week.  At this time, Hurricane Sandy has bloomed in the backyard of the Caribbean and is gaining strength quickly.

As of Wednesday, Sandy is a category one hurricane that is shredding through Jamaica.  Recent satellite and aircraft data suggests the hurricane is holding at 80 mph and will stay a weak hurricane for the time being.  As the cyclone ventures northward into the Western Atlantic will likely strengthen a massive system and could flirt with the Eastern coastline early next week.

Before Hurricane Sandy becomes a major headline, we'll watch a strong cold front venture into the Natural State late Thursday night.  This cold front will be a huge game changer for Arkansas and get us out of this warm, humid pattern we've enjoyed the last four days.  Once we're behind the front, we'll plummet to the 40's and 50's with a brisk wind out of the north.  Since the front will arrive a little sooner than expected it looks as though the Razorback game will dry this weekend.  Just make sure to bring the warm gear as you go out to tailgate.

While we suffer under the fall chill,  Hurricane Sandy will run into Bermuda, then an upper level low will enhance the cyclones development just before Halloween.  If all the cards fall into place, we could be looking a storm that could rival the "Perfect Storm" back in 1991.

                                  (European model showing Sandy slamming into New York next Monday)

The latest weather models paint a frightening picture of a deep cyclone producing extensive hurricane force winds around New York and Washington D.C. Besides massive power outages, extremly high waves, we'll be looking at major coastal flooding and possibly flight delays across a good portion of the country.

In other words, you might want to hold off on traveling to the Northeast next week.  It is going to be one nasty storm.