White Chrsitmas?

Yes, the rumors are true. There is shot at accumulating snow in Arkansas Christmas Day, but don't get too excited quite yet. There is still a lot of uncertainty in exactly how this storm system will shape up and the exact path of the area of low pressure that is expected to pass to our South Tuesday. Right now, computer models are suggesting a strengthening area of low pressure will pass South of Arkansas near the Gulf Coast and then move Northeast Tuesday night. This scenario would draw in colder air from the North and likely change rain over to snow by late Christmas Day.

There are still some differences in the strength and forecast track of the low pressure center as indicated by the computer models. Some show the low a bit weaker and farther South, which would mean little in the way of precipitation over the State. If the low goes farther North, most of Central Arkansas could stay warm enough that we wind up with mostly rain. It is far too early to call for potential snowfall amounts and exactly where snow will fall. Over the weekend, forecast confidence will go up and we will be able to determine if this is going to be a significant winter storm, or if just a lucky few will get to see some flakes.
One of the reasons not to get too excited just yet is that odds of a white Christmas in Arkansas in any given year are quite low. Below is a map showing the climatological chances of getting a white Chrsitmas.

Most of Central Arkansas has less than a 5% chance of seeing a white Christmas on average. The odds for Northern Arkansas are only slightly better at 5-10%. If this does turn out to be a white Christmas, it will be quite a rare treat to enjoy.