With that thought in mind, what does the meteorology community think about the fall season ahead? Well, let's find out.
When it comes to a season forecast, we typically turn to the CPC, or the Climatology Prediction Center. Obviously their forecast comes with a clear disclaimer that these are just forecasts and they need be taken with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, they are intriguing and are the most relible at depicting monthly forecasts in this day and age. So here goes...
According to the CPC, we can look forward to a slightly above normal temperatures in Arkansas during the next few months. When I look at the climatology data for the state that equates to thermometers running anywhere from the low 90's to the mid 70's during October afternoons with overnight lows occasionally dipping to the 40's. As for November that means temperatures will generally hang out in the 70's with major dips into the 60's-50's occurring in the second half of the month.
Rain predictions for the fall season aren't that appealing. When you look at the image above, you can make out the normal precipitation amounts expected in Arkansas and most of the U.S. In other words, the CPC expects 4-9" in the next few months. More of the precipitation is anticipated to occur along the gulf coast.
If you were wondering, these predictions aren't just computer generated. These forecasts are heavily weighted on ENSO phases. The latest ENSO analysis shows that an El-Nĩno phase is expected to ramp up very soon. At the moment, the CPC thinks this transition to an El-Nĩno will have a greater impact on the winter months rather than the months of fall. That is usually the case when it comes to climatology in our country.
Only time will tell how accurate these forecasts become. For now we'll keep these ideas in the back of our minds. All we can hope for is a wet and pleasant fall season ahead.
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