Dry Weekend, New Year's Eve Rain

Skies will remain mostly sunny on Sunday, however some high level cirrus clouds will move in during the afternoon in advance of our next weather system.

Precipitation will begin to spread back into Arkansas by early Monday morning.  Enough cold air will remain in place that rain may begin as freezing rain, sleet or snow, especially across Northern Arkansas. Most precipitation should turn to plain rain during the day.

Significant ice accumulations are NOT expected for Central Arkansas at this time, however, temperatures will be quite close to the freezing mark so close attention should be paid to the forecast.

More Snow Potential

Winter Weather advisory issued for much of Northern and some of Central Arkansas through this evening.

A disturbance moving across the State is bringing a few rain and snow showers through the State this evening. Even though snow will briefly mix with rain across parts of Central Arkansas, accumulations are not expected with temperatures remaining above freezing.
The more significant snow will be mainly for Northeast Arkansas. Locally up to 3 inches is possible for Northeast Arkansas through tonight, mainly North of Jonesboro. Below is the forecast radar for 8 PM this evening, showing the rain & snow mix moving out of Central Arkansas.

Any remaining snow will push out of the State after Midnight. A light coating of snow is possible on some of the roadways, so use extra caution traveling this evening and tonight, especially around bridges and overpasses.

More Wintry Weather

A Winter Weather advisory is in effect for much of Central Arkansas tonight and early Friday morning.

 An approaching disturbance will bring moisture back across the State late tonight bringing a combination of sleet, freezing rain and rain.

Temperatures will be close to freezing as the rain approaches, meaning that freezing rain or drizzle is possible during the morning hours. Precipitation is expected to be generally light, but some ice accumulation is possible, and may cause some additional icy spots on the roads, on top of the leftover snow and ice from the Christmas Day storm. The rain and freezing rain may add to the weight of the snow and ice already on tree limbs, which could cause more tree limbs to snap. It is possible that this may cause additional power outages.

Computer model temperatures show temperatures just barely above freezing by Friday morning.

Southern Arkansas should be safely above freezing, but temperatures will be very close to the freezing mark Central and North. This is not expected to a significant storm at this point, but some accumulation of ice is possible through early Friday.

Snowfall Totals

 Little Rock records 9.0" of snow Christmas Day, making it the second snowiest December day on record and the 7th snowiest day overall since 1879.

The following are snowfall totals through Wednesday Morning (Some totals are from Tuesday night):

Little Rock: 9.0"
North Little Rock: 10.0"
Maumelle: 9"
Conway: 10.0"
Lonoke: 8"
Mena: 11.5"
Batesville: 7.0"
Sardis: 8.0"
Sherwood: 7.5"
Searcy: 6.0"
Hot Springs: 7.0"
Bryant: 7.0"
West Little Rock: 8.0"
Wye Mountain: 11.5" 
Salem: 3.5" 
Gravel Ridge: 7.0"
Mayflower: 11.0"
Austin: 12.0"
Bogg Springs: 11.0"
Hardy: 5.0"
Russellville: 5.0"
Morrilton: 13.0"
Desha (Independence County): 10"
Keo: 5.0"
Salem: 11.0"
Crystal Valley: 7.5"
Cabot: 7.0"
Houston (Perry County): 14.0"
Clarendon: 2.5"
Gilbert (Searcy County): 4.0"
Leola: 4.0"
Evening Shade: 9.0"
Jessieville (Garland County): 15.0"
Jacksonville: 10.5"
Georgetown (White County): 9.5"
Jussonia (White County): 13.0" 
Petit Jean: 13.0"
 
 
 
 
 
 

Staying Cold,

The storm system that brought a blanket of snow to much of Arkansas is moving away, but leaving cold temperatures in its wake. Low pressure will move Northeast today bringing cold Northwest winds Wednesday.

Skies will clear out today, but temperatures will have a hard time making it above freezing, especially around areas where there is snow cover. Brisk Northwest winds will keep wind chill values down into the 20s and 10s. A combination of clear skies tonight and snow on the ground will allow for the many spots to drop to the coldest temperatures in nearly 2 years. Lows will drop well down into the 10s in some spots. Below are computer model projected low temperatures for Thursday morning.

Thursday will remain cool and dry, but another system will approach by early Friday morning. This is not expected to be a strong system, but it will bring rain back into the area Friday morning. With cold air still in place, precipitation may begin as freezing rain or snow.

Although this is not expected to be nearly as significant as the historic Christmas Day storm, some travel problems will be possible mainly Friday AM.

Winter Storm Moves In

Sleet and freezing rain will continue to throughout. Some ice accumulation on cars, road signs, trees and other surfaces is also like into the afternoon. Use caution if traveling this afternoon, especially around elevated section of roads. Rain has changed to snow around Russellville at 2 PM and the snow line will continue to advance through Central Arkansas during the early evening hours.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of Central Arkansas through tonight. Blizzard warnings are now in effect for Northeast Arkansas including White and Independence Counties. Strong winds combined with heavy snow tonight in the blizzard warning areas may reduce visibilities to less than half a mile at time. Travel is not recommended tonight at all in the blizzard warning area. Below is the current map of Winter Weather warnings and advisories

Rain and sleet will turn to all snow from West to East with the rain snow line reaching the Little Rock metro area around 6 PM.  Southern and Eastern Arkansas will remain mostly rain through this time

Heavy wet snow will continue to overspread Central Arkansas with rapid accumulation of snow. Travel will become dangerous as roads become snow covered.

 Snow will begin to diminish across Central Arkansas around Midnight with heavy snow spreading through Northeast Arkansas. Blizzard conditions will develop as strong winds gusting to near 40 MPH over Northeast portions of the State

Most snow will end during the early morning hours over Central Arkansas with blizzard conditions Northeast. Wind and cold temperatures will result in wind chill values well down into the 10s.

Snow amounts will range from 6 to as much as 10 inches in some spots mainly just North and Northeast of the Little Rock area. Snowfall amounts will fall off very quickly South and East of Little Rock. Significant snowfall is not likely for Southern Arkansas where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Below is the snowfall projection for Arkansas through Wednesday morning.

This will be major winter storm for Central Arkansas. Travel is not recommended tonight through Wednesday morning. If you must go out, use extreme caution.

Chrsitmas Day Storm

A major winter storm taking shape is set to bring significant snowfall to parts of Arkansas today and tonight. Cold air moving into the State is getting drawn into a strengthening low pressure system that will move through Texas and Louisiana today before turning Northeast into the Ohio Valley. This places most of Arkansas on the cold side of the storm.

Rain will quickly turn to snow across Northern and Western Arkansas during the late morning and early afternoon hours. For Central Arkansas, cold rain will begin during the midday hours and may mix with sleet at times.

As the cold air moves South, the rain/snow line will move Southeast into Central Arkansas by the evening.  The transition from rain to snow will likely begin around 6 PM in Central Arkansas, mainly North and West of Little Rock.

 By 9 PM, the rain/snow line should have pushed through most of the Little Rock metro area with heavy wet snow quickly accumulating. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate. 

The rain snow line will continue advancing through Eastern Arkansas overnight. The exact timing of the changeover is critical in determining snowfall amounts. An earlier changeover means more snow and a later changeover means less. Snow will begin to diminish across Central Arkansas after Midnight with heavy snow and wind likely for Northeast Arkansas.

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has extended the Winter Storm Warning farther South including most of Central Arkansas. A blizzard warning is in effect for parts of Northeast Arkansas including White and Independence Counties where strong winds tonight will cause blowing snow and low visibility later tonight.

Recent computer model runs show heavier snow a little farther South now. Snow amounts will range from 6 to as much as 10 inches in some spots mainly just North and Northeast of the Little Rock area. As rain changes to heavy wet snow across Central Arkansas late in the evening, a burst of 3 to 6 inches is likely before snow starts tapering off after Midnight. Snowfall amounts will fall off very quickly South and East of Little Rock. Significant snowfall is not likely for Southern Arkansas where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Below is the snowfall projection for Arkansas through Wednesday morning.

Actual snowfall amounts could vary greatly for Central Arkansas depending on the exact track of the low pressure system, which will determine the timing of the changeover. Even a couple hours difference in the timing of the transition from rain to snow in Central Arkansas will have a large impact on snow amounts.

Travel will quickly become dangerous for Northern Arkansas Tuesday as snow accumulates on roads. Most of Central Arkansas will have a mix of rain and some sleet during the daylight hours on Tuesday, with mostly just wet roads. As snow starts to pick up, travel will begin to become more dangerous during the evening hours, especially after 9 PM. Stay tuned for further updates.

The trend is not your friend

There's a good reason you don't see a lot of reliable snowfall forecasts more than 48 hours out. When it comes to snowfall forecasts beyond 2 days, things can change a lot. Take for example the change in snowfall guidance over the last 24 hours for Central Arkansas. Forecasting precipitation amounts is tough enough, but when you take into account precipitation amounts near the rain/snow line the challenge is greatly compounded.

Take a look at computer model output from Saturday at Noon. The white line shows total snowfall accumulation. The time frame on these charts is right to left. The color of the bars shows precipitation type. Green is rain, red is sleet, freezing rain or mix, and blue is liquid equivalent of snow. Grey is forecast snow amounts.

 (GFS 18Z Sat Dec 22 2012 Precipitation forecast for Little Rock)

(NAM 18Z Sat Dec 22 2012 Precipitation forecast for Little Rock)

 The GFS model shows over 4 inches of snow for Little Rock, beginning after 3 PM Tuesday. The NAM model shows less snow, just about an inch of accumulation after 4PM. 

24 hours can certainly change things though, the model runs are trending very slightly warmer for late Tuesday afternoon and early evening. This makes a big difference in the timing of the change to snow and therefore and even bigger difference in snowfall amounts. Below are the same models run Sunday at Noon. 

 (GFS 18Z Sun Dec 23 2012 Precipitation forecast for Little Rock)

 (NAM 18Z Sun Dec 22 2012 Precipitation forecast for Little Rock)

The trend is obvious. Using the same set of parameters, snowfall output is way down with model output now showing less than an inch of accumulation for Little Rock, with the rain to snow transition not occurring until much later in the evening. The GFS model shows the changeover between 6pm and 9pm, while the NAM is even later showing mostly just rain in the Little Rock metro area  until almost 11PM. Of course, model trends may swing back the other way, but inside of 48 hours, the computer model runs tend to become far more consistent. All of this being said, significant snowfall is still likely for parts of the State Christmas Day, but pinpointing who gets exactly how much for a precise location is still tricky business.

White Chrsitmas?

Yes, the rumors are true. There is shot at accumulating snow in Arkansas Christmas Day, but don't get too excited quite yet. There is still a lot of uncertainty in exactly how this storm system will shape up and the exact path of the area of low pressure that is expected to pass to our South Tuesday. Right now, computer models are suggesting a strengthening area of low pressure will pass South of Arkansas near the Gulf Coast and then move Northeast Tuesday night. This scenario would draw in colder air from the North and likely change rain over to snow by late Christmas Day.

There are still some differences in the strength and forecast track of the low pressure center as indicated by the computer models. Some show the low a bit weaker and farther South, which would mean little in the way of precipitation over the State. If the low goes farther North, most of Central Arkansas could stay warm enough that we wind up with mostly rain. It is far too early to call for potential snowfall amounts and exactly where snow will fall. Over the weekend, forecast confidence will go up and we will be able to determine if this is going to be a significant winter storm, or if just a lucky few will get to see some flakes.
One of the reasons not to get too excited just yet is that odds of a white Christmas in Arkansas in any given year are quite low. Below is a map showing the climatological chances of getting a white Chrsitmas.

Most of Central Arkansas has less than a 5% chance of seeing a white Christmas on average. The odds for Northern Arkansas are only slightly better at 5-10%. If this does turn out to be a white Christmas, it will be quite a rare treat to enjoy.

Storm Damage, Strong Winds

Winds are diminishing across Central Arkansas this evening, but still some gusty winds can be expected through the evening. Earlier this morning and during the afternoon winds gusted to over 50 MPH in some spots, bringing down tree limbs and causing power outages. Here is a list from the National Weather Service of maximum wind gusts recorded today across the State. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 430 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012 ...PEAK WIND GUSTS SINCE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA... SHERIDAN.......................55 MPH STUTTGART......................50 MPH FLIPPIN........................50 MPH DEVILS KNOB RAWS...............50 MPH STUTTGART AIRPORT..............50 MPH LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD........49 MPH HOT SPRINGS....................46 MPH MOUNTAIN HOME..................46 MPH PINE BLUFF.....................46 MPH NEWPORT........................46 MPH HARRISON.......................45 MPH MONTICELLO.....................45 MPH LITTLE ROCK AIR FORCE BASE.....44 MPH BATESVILLE.....................44 MPH MENA...........................43 MPH NORTH LITTLE ROCK NWS..........43 MPH CLINTON........................43 MPH MONTICELLO RAWS................42 MPH SEARCY.........................41 MPH RUSSELLVILLE...................40 MPH BOONEVILLE RAWS................40 MPH CAMDEN.........................40 MPH MOUNT IDA......................38 MPH ARKADELPHIA....................36 MPH EVENING SHADE RAWS.............36 MPH GUY RAWS.......................35 MPH JESSIEVILLE RAWS...............34 MPH SILVER HILL RAWS...............34 MPH ODEN RAWS......................33 MPH ARMSTEAD MOUNTAIN RAWS.........31 MPH

 The same system that produced the strong winds today sent a cold front through Wednesday night, creating a line of storms that created wind damage in parts of the State. One EF1 tornado with winds of up to 95 MPH was confirmed by the National Weather Service near Sheridan in Grant County. The tornado hit shortly before 1:30 AM Thursday and destroyed one mobile home. Nobody was injured. Below is a map showing all the of the severe weather reports from Wednesday night. Most resulted from straight line winds.

Winds will diminish tonight with cold temperatures by tomorrow morning.

Windy & Colder

Strong West winds will spread across the State today behind the cold front that swept through last night. Intense low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley creating a strong pressure gradient will bring very windy conditions throughout Arkansas.

Sustained winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH will continue from the morning hours into the mid afternoon. Computer model forecast wind speeds for Noon show sustained winds of over 25 MPH in many spots.

The winds combined with much cooler temperatures today will create cold wind chill values. The wind chill is how cold it feels when wind is taken into account. Wind chill values today will range from the upper 20s to the 30s even during the daylight hours.

Winds will diminish somewhat during the evening hours, but temperatures will quickly drop into the 30s after dark. Lows by Friday morning will fall below freezing into the mid to upper 20s.

Tornado Watch

 UPDATE 11:30 PM:

Tornado Watch extended into Central Arkansas until 2 AM

 As of 11:30 PM, a line of storms continued to approach Central Arkansas. The storms will likely affect the metro Little Rock area between 1 AM and 3 AM with strong gusty winds. Below is the radar at 11:30PM

UPDATE 7:40 PM

Tornado Watch Issued for much of Western Arkansas until 2 AM.

A strong cold front pushing into Central Arkansas tonight will bring showers and some thunderstorms, followed by a quick shot of colder air. Showers and storms will begin to push into Western Arkansas mainly after 9PM.

Storms will quickly push into Central Arkansas later in the evening, with the highest risk of storms for Central Arkansas mainly between about 11 PM and 3 AM. Some of the storms may be strong to severe. Strong jet stream winds will create fairly strong wind shear, one of the ingredients for severe weather. The limiting factor in this case is the lack of warm enough air of the front, which is typically a problem for severe weather during the Winter season. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Arkansas in a SLIGHT risk for severe storms for tonight.

The main severe risk associated with the storms is strong wind gusts. Isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk appears low at this point, mainly due the marginally warm air ahead of the cold front, but a tornado threat will exist along with any individual storms.

Much colder air will follow the front for Thursday morning. Strong wind gusts are also likely as the cold air rushes in Thursday morning, with gusts of up to 40 MPH likely.

Temperatures will fall into the low 40s by Mid-morning Thursday, but with the strong winds it will feel like upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs Thursday will stay in the 40s with diminishing winds by later in the day.

Sneak Peak at Christmas

Hot off the press - Mother Nature could deliver a powerful winter storm as we go into the week of Christmas.

Before you dream of a white Christmas and grab those sleds from the attic there is some information you need to know.  First, and foremost, the winter storm that may develop next week will NOT give us any shot at snow for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.  Sorry for the all disappointing news snow fans.

In fact, leading up to Christmas our weather will be pretty typical for this time of year with clouds and temperatures in the upper 50's.  If you plan on traveling over the weekend to see loved ones for the holidays you'll be in good shape.  The west coast near San Francisco and Los Angles may feature some delays but majority of the lower 48s will be tranquil.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look to feature plenty of clouds and scattered rain showers.  Generally speaking, a low pressure system will be getting its act together in the southern region and begin to force moist air through the gulf coast.

Beyond Christmas Day appears interesting.  Several computer models amplify the surface low and carry it northeast.  As it drifts near our backyard the winter system will likely spread cold, arctic air on the back side of it.  Eventually, this frigid air will interact with the moisture wrapping around the low causing snow to fall from the Mid-West to, wait for it, Arkansas. 

Of course it is way too soon to jump on the snow band wagon. We've been teased with snow around the holidays before (last year was the same ordeal) and it didn't pan out.  That being said, we need to keep this storm development in the back of our minds.  All of the models are hinting at a winter storm next week and they haven't deviated from the solution yet.
 

Going over the Temperature Cliff/First Flakes?

December has been off to a very mild start across Arkansas with the first week of the month averaging over 15 degrees above normal. This pattern is about to change from T-shirt weather to heavy coat weather as a strong cold front sweeps across the State Sunday ushering in the coldest air of the season so far, and our first taste of Winter like cold. The front will approach by late Sunday evening with showers and some isolated thunderstorms.

(Futurecast Model Forecast 9 PM Sunday Dec 9 2012)

After a warm weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s, temperatures will plunge into the 30s by Monday morning. Highs Monday and Tuesday will only reach the low to mid 40s.

(Little Rock Forecast High Temperatures)

Although most of the moisture associated with the cold front will move out of the State as the cold air moves in, an upper level disturbance is forecast to move through Sunday. One of the computer models indicate the disturbance will be strong enough to put out some snowfall on Monday.

 (18Z NAM Snow Depth valid 9 AM Monday December 10 2012)

The above graphic shows total snowfall through 9 AM Monday morning with minor accumulations across parts of Southern, Eastern and Central Arkansas. This model is somewhat of an outlier, as other models are not showing any snowfall in Arkansas at all.

(Futurecast Snowfall totals through 6PM Monday December 10 2012)

(RPM Model 72 hour total snowfall ending 3 PM Monday December 10th 2012)

I still would not be surprised to see a few flakes here and there on Monday, but at this point do not expect snow to accumulate for a couple of reasons. First of, the ground is fairly warm from the recent stretch of well above normal temperatures. Second, temperatures will remain above freezing on Monday morning, helping to immediately melt any snow that does manage to reach the ground. In addition, it quite likely that there will not be enough moisture left in the air to squeeze out much in the way of any precipitation during the day Monday. Even though the chance of seeing any snow this week in Arkansas is very slim, the colder temperatures will at least make it feel a whole lot more like Winter.

Cold front moves through

A cold front moving through Central Arkansas is bringing a round of showers and isolated thunder. Some downpours may be briefly heavy, but no severe storms are expected.

 (radar and temperatures at 11am)

Cooler temperatures will follow the front. Temperatures will drop from the lower 70s late this morning into the 50s by this evening. Although cooler air is on the way, temperatures will remain above normal for the rest of the week.