Uneventful End to September

The 7-day forecast explains it all, doesn't it? The weather will be sunny from here on out in Arkansas.  The only change to monitor will be the thermometer readings.

While we are on the topic let's talk about this upcoming cold front.  It looks to be a doozy. Between now and Thursday evening we'll remain out ahead of a cold front.  This means we'll stay warmer than average (in the 80's).  Once the front arrives you'll notice a nice cool snap.  Thermometers will stumble to the 40's during the mornings and  the afternoons will feature comfortable temperatures in the 70's.

In terms of rainfall, we don't have a shot of it in the near future so you can wash your car all you want or mow the grass.  Even though we are getting a cold front in here Thursday night, there won't be enough moisture to mustard up a single drop maybe not even a cloud.

                                                (GFS weather model showing a cold front bringing storms on Oct. 9th)

The only hope for rain and thunderstorms won't be until late next week or into the second weekend of October.  That is...if you believe what one of the long term models is displaying.  Obviously, we're not fully on board with the idea but at least it's something to watch out for during a time of quiet weather.


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Sunday Severe Weather Threat

Severe storms will be possible beginning late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening across Central Arkansas. A cold front pushing across the State along with a strong slow moving upper low to our North will result in scattered to numerous storms developing across Central Arkansas. Warm, moist air ahead of the front combined with moderate wind shear around the upper low will create a marginal tornado threat mainly during the mid-day hours into the early evening. Large hail and gusty winds may also accompany some of the stronger storms. The Storm Prediction Center has a much of Arkansas under a SLIGHT risk for severe storms including a risk for tornadoes.



The map below shows the tornado threat for Sunday as of 1 AM from the SPC. The 5% contour which includes much of Central Arkansas indicates a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.

Another Front Coming

REST OF THIS EVENING: Dense fog covered portions of Central and Northern Arkansas this morning (evident in the shot of Danville this morning).  Of course, all that has changed this afternoon with lots of sunshine and temperatures stuck in the 80's.  The rest of the evening will remain unchanged with little cloud cover and temperatures sinking to the 70's/60's.

                                                       (500 mb map showing upper level low near Michigan)


TOMORROW:  While an upper level low circles over the Great Lakes Region, we'll receive a nice package from this system in the form of a cold front.  The front will arrive tomorrow morning and help carry in rain chances.  These showers won't take up a lot of real estate but they could interupt your day for a couple hours so have the umbrellas in the car just in case.  Besides more moisture showing up in the Natural State, we'll feel temperatures struggle in the 70's.

FRIDAY:  The last day of the work week will be very nice.  We'll likely begin the day a cloudy and in the 50's...later that day we'll see a good amount of sunshine come in during the afternoon.  Temperatures will be pleasantly in the 70's as you get out of work and head out to those high school football games.  Speaking of which, there will be a slight chill in the air as the football games get into the second half. Temperature wise, we're talking about the 60's here.

WEEKEND: Should be warmer with temperatures climbing back to the 80's.  A little more cloud cover will be on tap but not completely cloudy by any means.  No rain is coming our way either.

If you want a sneak preview at what will take place next week, be sure to watch FOX 16 News at 5,9 and 10.

Drought Likely to get Worse

The U.S. Drought Monitor released its latest drought maps today, with much of Central Arkansas in moderate to severe drought. Parts of Southwest Arkansas are in Exceptional Drought, which is the worst category.


Drought conditions are unlikely to improve much going into the Fall months as La Nina once again restrengthens. La Nina, which is the abnormal cooling of water in the Equatorial Pacific, typically brings drier than normal conditions to much of The South. Drought conditions across Arkansas will likely persist or get worse over the next 3 months according the Climate Prediction Center.

Cooler Days Ahead

                                                                     (Temperatures as of 2 P.M. today)

REST OF TODAY: A strong cold front is making its presence known in Missouri and in the Northern Plains today with temperatures struggling to get to the 60's and 50's.  Now that's what I call some crisp cool air.  That same piece of fall of air is moving toward the great state of Arkansas.  Unforunately it will not have any impacts on our weather today.  We'll stay muggy out ahead of the front and feel temperatures surge to the 90's. 

                                                        (Visible satellite feed overhead of Arkansas.)

Judging by the satellite feed we'll also end the day with some sunshine, so get those sunglasses ready.  As for our rain chances, the downpours and storms we'll remain in NE and Eastern sections of Arkansas later this evening.

TONIGHT: The cold front will sink into our state tonight and drop temperatures in a hurry.  Overnight lows will stumble to the upper 50's while our sky remains partly cloudy.

THURSDAY: The weather will be increadibly different...in a good way.  Temperatures will struggle to get to 70 degrees (hello long sleeves).  Meanwhile, we'll loose the humidity and get a breezy north wind.  In terms of cloud cover, we'll see a few clouds in the morning and late in the afternoon otherwise it will bright for several hours.  Rain chances will be low all across the state.

                                                       (NAM weather model showing rain for NW Arkansas Friday.)

FRIDAY: More clouds arrive for Friday along with better rain chances for our northern friends.  Temperatures will be around the same ballpark in the low 70's.

WEEKEND: Temperatures will slowly improve over the weekend while our rain opportunities will be pretty slim in Central Arkansas.  Although, if your heading up to Fayetteville to see the Hogs game you might run into a couple showers.

NEXT WEEK:  Long range models are hinting at another strong cold front reaching our frontier late next week.  Before it arrives we should warm up back to the 80's.


That's it for today.  Enjoy the rest of the week.  Be sure to tune in at 5, 9 and 10 P.M. to watch Chief Meteorologist Jeff Baskin for your hour by hour forecast. 

New Tornado Frequency Maps

The Storm Prediction Center released its new 30 year averaged tornado statistics from 1981 to 2010. The statistics used up until now were from 1971-2000. The map above shows average numbers of tornadoes per state. Arkansas now averages 33 tornadoes per year State wide. This number is up from 26 based on the previous 30 year average. The reason for the increase isn't likely from an actual increase in the frequency of tornadoes, but rather due to more people observing tornadoes and more verification of tornado damage in rural areas by The National Weather Service. Texas has by far the greatest number of tornadoes at 150. Of course, Texas is also much larger. The map below adjusts tornado frequency for state size by calculating average number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles


In this case, Arkansas actually has a greater tornado frequency than Texas per square mile. Kansas has the greatest frequency per 10,000 square miles at 14. Arkansas averages 9 tornadoes per 10,000 square miles and Texas averages 5.

Brief Shot of Hot Before Fall Temps Return

Summer heat is trying to make a come back across the South Central U.S. with triple digit high temperatures over Oklahoma and Texas on Monday.



Temperatures will continue to climb Tuesday, but the heat will be short lived as a strong cold front approaches late Wednesday. The front is likely to bring showers and some storms Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. A couple of storms may be strong, but not much in the way of severe weather is expected.



Much cooler air will filter in behind the front for the end of the week with highs in some parts of Arkansas holding in the 60s. As the front stalls just to our South, a series of weak disturbances will approach from the Northwest keeping low rain chances and below normal temperatures in the picture into the weekend.

One Storm, Two Scenarios

Tropical systems in the Gulf can be notoriously difficult to forecast, especially when steering currents are weak. This is exactly the case with Tropical Storm Nate. Computer models are very much split on two very different scenarios. The official National Hurricane Center forecast calling for a slow Northwest movement over the next few days is essentially a split down the middle of the two model camps.



One scenario is that Nate drifts slowly and then begins to move West toward the Mexico Coast as a developing upper level high over Northern Mexico and Texas becomes the dominant steering mechanism.


The second group of models take Nate North toward the Northern Gulf Coast. In this case Nate moves far enough North in the next couple of days that it is eventually picked up by a trough accelerating it toward the North and Northeast.



The models that do offer this solution vary greatly in the timing, ranging from late in the weekend to late next week. Given the very weak steering currents, it would be more likely that a slower solution would be more likely if this scenario pans out. The end result is that there is considerable uncertainty in the track and it should not be assumed that Nate will follow the current forecast. There is no immediate threat to the Gulf Coast, but Nate needs to be watched very closely over the next couple of days as significant changes in the forecast track are likely.

Razorback Forecast & More

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Tropical Depression 13/Lee

Slow moving and poorly organized TD13 has formed in the North Central Gulf, which has been forecasted by computer models for several days now. Organization and strengthening of this system will be slow, however the slow movement means a substantial flood threat for much of the Gulf Coast.


5 day rainfall totals as forecast by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center could be in the range of 1 to 2 FEET for parts of SE Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Freshwater flooding is by far the greatest threat with this system, as it seems doubtful at this point that the system will be able to become a significant hurricane before moving onshore in the next 2 to 3 days. It should be noted, however, that if the center stays offshore longer than indicated in the official NHC forecast, the system could become stronger.



This is the forecast track from 10PM Thursday night, showing a very slow movement toward the coast, approaching the Louisiana coast late Sunday. Disorganized tropical systems caught in weak steering currents are notoriously difficult to forecast, and there is considerably uncertainty in the speed and track. In addition, the heaviest rainfall will likely not be right along the center, but rather North and East of the center of circulation. The remnants of the system will likely eventually get caught up in a frontal boundary by early next week and move Northeast along the front. This would keep the heavy rains mainly South and East of Arkansas, but a more Northerly track could bring some heavy bands of rain into the state Sunday and possibly into Labor Day.

Future Lee and The Gulf Coast

The system in the Gulf that will likely become tropical storm Lee will begin to spread rain across the Gulf coast today and through the Labor Day weekend. This is likely to be a very slow moving system caught in weak steering currents. Some computer models showing the soon to be Lee stalling off the Gulf Coast through the middle of next week.


The main threat appears to be a prolonged heavy rain event. This is the forecast rainfall by the hydro-meteorological prediction center through 7AM Tuesday, showing rainfall totals well over 10" for much of SE Louisiana and the MS Gulf Coast.


The strength of the former system is somewhat questionable. Initially, upper winds will not be very supportive for rapid or significant strengthening, but if the center if circulation remains well offshore into the weekend, more significant development will be possible, raising concerns for Coastal flooding. An air force aircraft will investigate the Gulf system this afternoon to determine whether or not a depression is already forming.

As of now, heavy rains appear to remain South of Arkansas as a cold front will push through by Labor Day, but will have to watch the Northward movement of this system.