Cold Front, Few Storms

A cold front will sweep into Arkansas Thursday with a few showers and thunderstorms likely. Most of the showers will be somewhat ahead of the front, moving through during the late morning into the early afternoon.

A few of the storms may be strong with isolated hail and some gusty winds the main threat. Below is the severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, showing a SLIGHT risk for parts of Arkansas.

Most showers and storms will push into Eastern and Southeast Arkansas during the late afternoon and exit the State by later in the evening.
Cooler, less humid air follows the front for the end of the week. Friday will be considerably cooler and less humid with highs in the 70s.

Low temperatures Saturday morning will even dip into the 50s, but the cool air won't stick around for long. Highs return to the 90s by early next week.

Thursday Cold Front

Rain chances are going up over the next couple of days thanks to an approaching cold front. Most of Arkansas could use a good drink of water after a very dry and hot May. The front will also bring a few storms, some of which could be potentially strong.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday, but rain coverage will increase Wednesday night and Thursday. Storms will quickly develop and intensify over Oklahoma Wednesday evening and push Eastward into Western Arkansas by late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The storms may initially be strong to severe as they move into Arkansas, however, the storms will tend to weaken as they push toward Central Arkansas later Thursday morning. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a SLIGHT risk for severe storm mainly for Western Arkansas for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Another round of severe weather is likely for Central Oklahoma, which was hard hit Tuesday night, where a MODERATE risk is indicated by The Storm Prediction Center.

An area of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary to our North will push the cold front into Arkansas by Thursday afternoon, likely igniting another round of storms.

Storms Thursday afternoon will pose the highest risk of producing severe weather, with hail and wind gusts the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a SLIGHT risk for severe storms for parts of Central, Eastern and Southern Arkansas Thursday.

Cooler, less humid air follows the front for the end of the week. Friday will be considerably cooler and less humid with highs in the 70s.

Low temperatures Saturday morning will even dip into the 50s, but the cool air won't stick around for long. Highs return to the 90s by early next week.

Record Hot Tuesday

Numerous temperature records fell across Arkansas on Tuesday as highs topped out in the upper 90s. Little broke the record high for the day hitting 97, North Little Rock reached 96, and Jacksonville topped out at 98. The hot spot for the State was Mena at 99 degrees. The weather service did note an observation of 100, but it was not an official reading. Below is the wrap up from The National Weather Service in Little Rock of Tuesday's heat:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
808 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY IN ARKANSAS...

TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE CENTURY MARK IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF SOME
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND THE REGION FOR TODAY...


MENA AIRPORT                   99
ARKADELPHIA AIRPORT            98
JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB   98
RUSSELLVILLE                   98
BATESVILLE AIRPORT             97
CLINTON AIRPORT                97
HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT            97
LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD        97
SEARCY                         97
STUTTGART AIRPORT              97
MOUNT IDA                      96
NORTH LITTLE ROCK              96
CAMDEN AIRPORT                 95
MONTICELLO                     95
PINE BLUFF                     94

SEVERAL LOCATIONS SET RECORD TEMPERATURES...INCLUDING...

BATESVILLE AIRPORT...

AT BATESVILLE AIRPORT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 BROKE THE
PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS SET IN 1945. THIS IS ALSO
THE HOTTEST MAY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT THE BATESVILLE AIRPORT...
AND THIS TEMPERATURE WAS ALSO RECORDED ON MAY 28TH. THE PREVIOUS
HIGHEST RECORD TEMPERATURE FOR MAY WAS 96 DEGREES...WHICH WAS
RECORDED ON MAY 31ST 1937.

RECORDS FOR BATESVILLE AIRPORT BEGAN MARCH 1ST 1937.

MOUNT IDA...

AT MOUNT IDA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 BROKE THE PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD OF 93...WHICH WAS SET IN 1925. THIS WAS THE SECOND HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MAY AT MOUNT IDA. THIS
TEMPERATURE WAS LAST RECORDED ON MAY 31ST 1977. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY WAS 97 DEGREES...WHICH OCCURRED ON
MAY 30TH AND 31ST 1934.

RECORDS FOR MOUNT IDA BEGAN FEBRUARY 1ST 1872.

LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD...

AT LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD...THE HIGH WAS 97...AND BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 96 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 1926 AND AGAIN IN
1953. THIS ALSO IS THE SECOND HOTTEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
THE MONTH OF MAY AT LITTLE ROCK. THIS SAME TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED
ON MAY 31ST 1934...AND AGAIN ON MAY 30TH 1977.

THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MAY AT LITTLE ROCK
WAS 98 DEGREES. THIS OCCURRED ON MAY 26TH 1964...AND MOST RECENTLY
ON MAY 31ST 1998.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR LITTLE ROCK BEGAN JULY 1ST 1879.

NORTH LITTLE ROCK...

AT NORTH LITTLE ROCK...THE HIGH WAS 96 DEGREES. THIS BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS SET IN 1977.

THIS WAS ALSO THE THIRD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IN THE MONTH
OF MAY...AND THE HOTTEST SINCE 97 DEGREES WAS RECORDED ON MAY 31ST
1998. THE HOTTEST MAY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD WAS 98 DEGREES...ON MAY
30TH 1977.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR NORTH LITTLE ROCK BEGAN DECEMBER 31ST 1975.

JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS SET AT JACKSONVILLE/
LITTLE ROCK AFB TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 94...WHICH WAS
SET IN 1977.

THIS WAS THE THIRD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MAY
AT JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB.

THE HOTTEST MAY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD WAS 102 DEGREES...SET ON MAY
31ST 1998.

RECORDS FOR JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB BEGAN JANUARY 1ST 1956.

HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT...

AT THE HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 BROKE THE
PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 93...WHICH WAS SET IN 2000.

THIS WAS THE SECOND HOTTEST MAY TEMPERATURE RECORDED AT THE HOT
SPRINGS AIRPORT. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE WAS 98 DEGREES...ON MAY
31ST 1998...AND ON MAY 20TH 2005.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT BEGAN JANUARY 9TH
1948.

RUSSELLVILLE...

AT RUSSELLVILLE...THE HIGH OF 98 BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 96
DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 1998. THIS WAS THE HOTTEST MAY
TEMPERATURE AT RUSSELLVILLE SINCE LATE MAY 1951...AND THE SECOND
HOTTEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE HOTTEST MAY
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD WAS 99 DEGREES...ON MAY 31ST 1886.

RECORDS FOR RUSSELLVILLE BEGAN MAY 1ST 1882.

ALSO...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 100 DEGREES ON PETIT JEAN MOUNTAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...

ASTRONOMER CLAY SHERROD REPORTED THAT THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 100
DEGREES AT HIS OBSERVATORY ON PETIT JEAN MOUNTAIN AT 431 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON. HE ALSO NOTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN ZERO RAINFALL SO FAR IN
MAY...AND ONLY 1.10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN APRIL. HE SAID IT IS A
TINDERBOX ON THE MOUNTAIN.

THE REPORT OF 100 DEGREES...WHILE DEEMED ACCURATE...IS CONSIDERED
UNOFFICIAL...SINCE DR. SHERROD IS NOT AN OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OBSERVER.

Cool Down Coming

After a stretch of Summer like temperatures, a cold front arrives for the end of May with cooler temperatures to start off June. Temperatures stay hot through Wednesday, but an area of low pressure will push a cold front through the State by Thursday. The front will bring showers and some thunderstorms to parts of the State Thursday, with a couple of strong storms possible as well.

There is some severe weather threat with this system, although it unclear how much heating will occur prior to the storms rolling through. If the storms come through during the afternoon, the severe threat will be higher, but there are some indications that a round of morning showers and thunderstorms may dampen the threat for stronger storms during the day.
A shot of much cooler air moves in behind the front Thursday night, bringing a refreshing change by the end of the week.

Saturday morning will actually be quite cool across most of Arkansas with low temperatures dipping well down into the 50s. Enjoy the cool, refreshing weather while you can, as the heat returns quickly by early next week.

Beryl Will Strike the U.S.

While the Natural State fries under the summer sunshine, a tropical system is about to strike the southeast portion of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Beryl, the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, has meandered around the West Atlantic for the last several days but it now will make landfall later this Sunday evening.

Surprisingly, this rare May cyclone could pack a punch as it moves closer to the Florida/Georgia border.  The latest satellite and radar estimates Beryl with winds reaching as high as 65 mph with a    fairly slow pace of 10 mph to the west.

Travelers and beachgoers near the region won't be too happy to hear that Beryl will bring torrential downpours and high winds just in time for Memorial Day weekend.  People near the coast are already having fits with the tropical storm as at least over a dozen people were rescued from the strong rip currents near Tybee Island, GA.

                                     (RPM weather model showing 3-6" of rainfall in the next 72 hours)

Even though Beryl will dampen the holiday weekend for some, it will bring much needed rainfall to the region.  In fact, a large portion of the Northeast side of Florida is in desperate need of rain.  The region is in an exceptional drought. Lucky for them, weather models suggest almost 3-6 inches could come in between now and the next 72 hours.

All in all, Beryl will bring a good amount of rain and wind to the southeast coast.  Localized flooding may occur but at least the region will get it's fair share of rain.  Hopefully this will be not be a trend for hurricanes in the future.

Getting Dry, Higher Fire Danger

Spring for Central Arkansas started out wet, but is ending up quite dry. March was a wet Month with over 8 inches of rain recorded in Little Rock, but rainfall was below normal in April and so far May has been bone dry.

Many spots around Arkansas, including Little Rock,  have only received less than an inch of rain so far this month. Normal rainfall for the month so far is over 3 and half inches. Not only are gardens and yards getting parched due to the dry and increasingly hot weather, but fire danger is also creeping back up. Several Counties in Arkansas have enacted burn bans. The Counties shaded in red are under burn bans as of Wednesday.

Faulkner, Perry, Conway, Cleburne, Van Buren and Searcy Counties are among those now under burn bans.  Breezy conditions Thursday will add to the fire danger, along with temperatures topping 90 degrees.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor data just released today shows most of Arkansas now under "Dry" conditions with moderate drought conditions for Northeast Arkansas.

Without some significant rainfall within the next couple of weeks, much more of Arkansas is likely to fall under drought conditions.

Roasting for Riverfest

Stock up on the sunscreen and bottled water because Riverfest looks to be a sizzler for Memorial Day weekend. 

Above you can see a sneak peak at the forecast one week from today. 

An unseasonably strong upper level high pressure system will setup shop over the Ohio River Valley.  This upper level feature will cause for air to sink and heat up quickly.  Typically we see these heat machines covering the U.S. landscape in a month or two, not in late May.  That's why it will be uncomfortably hot for the unofficial start to the summer season.

(European model shows intense high pressure roughly 30,000 ft above the ground) 

 

How hot are we talking about?  Well, we're talking thermometers surging to the mid 90's with potential to hit the upper 90's in few local regions.  It really depends on the position of the high pressure.  If we end up directly underneath it we may, just may get pretty close to 100 degrees.

It sounds outrageous, but models are in a general agreement that upcoming pattern will remind us of summer.  Of course, we'll tweak the numbers once we know exactly where this heat machine develops.  Until then plan for our first real taste of summer real soon.