Winter Storm Update

A significant  Sleet and snow is transitioning  to mostly freezing rain tonight with significant ice accumulations likely across North Central Arkansas. An ice storm warning is in effect in the bright purple area indicated below.

Lesser ice accumulation is expected in the purple areas, indicating a Winter Weather Advisory. Mixed precipitation will transition to mostly freezing rain overnight. Temperatures will be close to the freezing mark Central Arkansas with slightly below freezing temperatures North.

Freezing rain will pick up intensity by Thursday morning, with significant ice accumulations likely in the ice storm warning area. Temperatures South of I-40 will be very close to freezing, which may result in glazing of trees and power lines. most surface roads will be wet, with icy spots possible on elevated surfaces.

North of I-40, where temperatures are likely to be below freezing, more significant ice accumulations are expected. Tree limbs will start falling, resulting in power outages. Travel conditions may become dangerous in spots, especially secondary roads and bridges. Temperatures will warm above freezing across most of the State by Noon with just cold rain and improving conditions.

Rain will diminish by late in the evening hours as it pushes East out of the State. Temperatures will stay generally above freezing Thursday night, so re-freezing is unlikely in most spots.

Total ice accumulations will be greatest North of I-40 through North Central Arkansas. Computer model ice accumulations through Thursday are shown below. Computer model trends have been showing LESS ice accumulation for Central Arkansas South of I-40 including the greater Little Rock area.

Ice accumulations over one quarter inch is sufficient to bring down tree limbs and power lines.

Mid-Week Ice

A storm system will bring snow, sleet and freezing rain to parts of the State for the middle of this week. A Winter Storm watch is in effect mainly for areas North I-40 for Wednesday evening into Thursday. A mix of light snow and sleet will move into Western and Central Arkansas during the mid-morning hours into the early afternoon. 

Accumulations are likely to be minor, but some slippery spots are possible. The first band of precipitation will diminish by late afternoon, but will increase again Wednesday night with mainly rain Southern Arkansas, a mix of freezing rain and rain Central Arkansas with primarily freezing rain Northern Arkansas. 

A freezing rain and snow mix is likely close to the Missouri border, with freezing rain for Northern and parts of Central Arkansas through Thursday morning.

 Rain and freezing rain will transition to mainly rain by Thursday afternoon, although a few spots over Northern Arkansas may remain freezing rain.

Significant ice accumulations over half an inch are possible in the Winter Storm Watch area. This is enough to cause damage to tree limbs and power lines, as well as cause travel problems. Below is the computer projected ice accumulations through Thursday evening. 

Power outages are likely across much of North Central Arkansas, mainly North of I-40. South of I-40, ice accumulations will be less, but some glazing of trees and power lines is possible. Bridges and overpasses may be icy Thursday morning.  Exact temperatures over Central Arkansas will be critical in determining how much ice accumulates. A difference of even a degree or two will make the difference between significant icing or just cold rain. Rain will come to an end Thursday night with milder temperatures for the end of the week.

Tuesday Snow Potential

A storm system moving in from the Southwest Tuesday will interact with some colder air moving in from the North. This will result in rain changing over to snow for parts of the State. However, accumulating snow will likely be confined to Northern and Northwest sections of the State. Computer models have been trending warmer for Central Arkansas, keeping all precipitation as rain. Below are several computer models showing accumulated snowfall through 9 AM Wednesday. All of the models show snow staying North, with only minor accumulations.

(NAM snow depth at 9 AM Wednesday)

(GFS snow depth at 9 AM Wednesday)

(RPM snow depth at 9 AM Wednesday)

Bottom line is that any snow at all looks unlikely South of I-40, with minor accumulations North. Higher elevations over Northwest Arkansas stand a shot at seeing a couple inches of accumulation.

Sunday Morning Storms

A cold front will sweep through Arkansas Sunday morning, bringing a round of some rain and a few thunderstorms. A narrow wedge of warm air will move Northward just ahead of the front, allowing for the possibility of a few strong storms, especially over Southern Arkansas. Below is the Storm Prediction Center severe weather threat for Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center shows much of the Southern half of Arkansas in a Slight Risk area for Sunday. The main risk from the storms will be some gusty winds, but there is also a low end tornado threat mainly in Southeast Arkansas South and East of Camden and Monticello.

Storms will approach Western Arkansas during the early morning hours. Below is a high resolution computer model forecast for 6 AM Sunday

Showers and storms will reach Central Arkansas by the mid-morning hours. Below is the forecast radar for 10 AM Sunday.

Storms will move Eastward into the afternoon, reaching Eastern and Southeast Arkansas by shortly afternoon. Below is the forecast radar for 1 PM Sunday.

Some heating will take place as the storms move into Southeast Arkansas, meaning a greater potential for some strong thunderstorms. Tornado potential will increase during the mid-day hours as the storms move through Southeast Arkansas. Most storms will clear the State by Mid Afternoon with breezy and mild conditions.