Historic Storm in the Atlantic

Hurricane Sandy continues to spin out in the Atlantic today and could end up becoming the strongest storm ever recorded for the Northeast.

As of this Saturday, Sandy is a weak category one hurricane with sustained winds hovering at 75 mph. The current center of the storm is moving northeast at slow pace of 11 mph and continues to hold together despite interacting with dry air at mid-level of the atmosphere.

The scary aspect of Sandy is not what is going on now but will be in the near future.  Between today and tomorrow, Sandy will get a major boost aloft.  The monster cyclone will interact with a strong upper level trough thousands of feet above us, which will enhance it to a large degree.  If you're wondering, this is the same trough that help bring in the cold front to Arkansas last Friday.

As Sandy progresses northward it will run into a strong blocking high pressure system.  Instead of  turning out to sea, Sandy will be sucked into an upper air channel that will force it to make a radical left hand turn straight to the New Jersey Shore by Monday evening.

You might be asking yourself, aren't hurricanes or tropical storms suppose to weaken as they head up north this time of year?  Is it the water too cold for a tropical system?

Usually you would be right, but this is a very bizarre setup.  The upper level trough I mentioned earlier will actually help this system rather than tear it apart.  It's extremely bizarre and unprecedented.  The upper air pattern will make for an interesting vortex where it will come ashore as a tropical storm but then act like a monstrous nor'easter.

                         (European model showing Sandy hitting New Jersey Monday night with a pressure of 960mb)

The track is not the only concern.  The slow movement and the intensity is a scary sight to see from the weather models.  As Sandy approaches the coastline Monday, it will likely sustain a minimum pressure of between 950-960mb.  That may not sound like much to you but let me put it this way.  The lowest pressure ever recorded in the Northeast was 946mb back when a hurricane hit Long Island in 1938.  That's impressive stuff for a Mid-Atlantic storm.

Even though Sandy will come ashore as a weak hurricane why is it a big deal?  Besides the fact this storm happens about once a century, it's going to reach a highly populated region.  Roughly 40-50 million people will be effected by this storm early next week.  Not to mention the laundry list of potential hazards are menacing.  There will be power outages lasting up to a week, major coastal flooding, tropical storm force winds and a foot of snow in the high terrain of West Virgina.

Anyway you slice it, this storm will be talked about for years to come.

Freeze Warning

Map updated to include more of West Central Arkansas

A Freeze Warning is in effect for North Central and much of West Central Arkansas early Saturday morning between 4 AM and 8 AM. Temperatures will fall to near freezing in some spots within the freeze warning area.

The freeze warning includes areas such as Searcy, Batesville, Conway, Heber Springs, Russellville, Hot Springs, Mt Ida and Mena. The warning does not include Pulaski County or the Little Rock area. Outside the freeze warning area, low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive outdoor plants and irrigation systems should be turned off and drained. Pets should not be left outdoors.

Below are computer model forecast temperatures for Saturday morning, showing widespread 30s across the State, with well below freezing temperatures for Northwest Arkansas

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend into early next week.

A Real Halloween Scare - Sandy's Impact

There might be a real Halloween scare for the eastern portion of the country next week.  At this time, Hurricane Sandy has bloomed in the backyard of the Caribbean and is gaining strength quickly.

As of Wednesday, Sandy is a category one hurricane that is shredding through Jamaica.  Recent satellite and aircraft data suggests the hurricane is holding at 80 mph and will stay a weak hurricane for the time being.  As the cyclone ventures northward into the Western Atlantic will likely strengthen a massive system and could flirt with the Eastern coastline early next week.

Before Hurricane Sandy becomes a major headline, we'll watch a strong cold front venture into the Natural State late Thursday night.  This cold front will be a huge game changer for Arkansas and get us out of this warm, humid pattern we've enjoyed the last four days.  Once we're behind the front, we'll plummet to the 40's and 50's with a brisk wind out of the north.  Since the front will arrive a little sooner than expected it looks as though the Razorback game will dry this weekend.  Just make sure to bring the warm gear as you go out to tailgate.

While we suffer under the fall chill,  Hurricane Sandy will run into Bermuda, then an upper level low will enhance the cyclones development just before Halloween.  If all the cards fall into place, we could be looking a storm that could rival the "Perfect Storm" back in 1991.

                                  (European model showing Sandy slamming into New York next Monday)

The latest weather models paint a frightening picture of a deep cyclone producing extensive hurricane force winds around New York and Washington D.C. Besides massive power outages, extremly high waves, we'll be looking at major coastal flooding and possibly flight delays across a good portion of the country.

In other words, you might want to hold off on traveling to the Northeast next week.  It is going to be one nasty storm.

Wenesday Severe Weather Threat

 9 PM Update:

Main severe weather threat now pushing East out of Arkansas. Still a few isolated storms around through this evening, generally ending before Midnight.

 5:30 PM Update:

Tornado Watch issued until 2 AM for most of Arkansas. A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for storms that may produce a tornado

 3 PM Update:

Nothing showing up on radar in Arkansas as of 3PM. Storms are moving East through Missouri with wind damage reported around Springfield. Winds were estimated to 70 MPH. Storms will rapidly increase across Arkansas after 4 PM.

(Radar & Warnings at 3 PM)

12 PM Update:

Updated tornado probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center. Highest tornado threat for Eastern and Southeast Arkansas through this evening, although still a risk for Central Arkansas as storms begin to fire up.

(SPC Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point - issued 1130AM Wed Oct 17)

Given the strong wind field expected to develop ahead of the cold front, an enhanced threat of strong to violent tornadoes is indicated mainly for Southeast Arkansas. Below is the area at greatest risk for EF2 or stronger tornadoes.

(SPC EF2+ tornado probability within 25 miles of a point exceeding 10%)

11 AM Update:

Storms still on track to take shape late this afternoon into this evening. Here is the latest high resolution computer model forecast for 6 PM today showing a line of storms rapidly intensifying over Central Arkansas.

(4km NAM simulated radar forecast for 6 PM Wed Oct 17 2012)

Wednesday Severe Weather Discussion:

A fast moving cold front will sweep into Arkansas Wednesday Afternoon bringing the risk of some strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of Wednesday will be dry, but storms will begin to fire up along the cold front by late afternoon. Storms should initiate around 4-5 PM and increase in coverage and intensity through the early evening.

 (Computer model projection for 5 PM Wed Oct 17 2012)

Storms will quickly intensify during the evening hours as they push across Central Arkansas. This will be the time frame for the greatest threat of severe storms mainly between 5 PM and 7 PM. 

(Computer model projection for 7 PM Wed Oct 17 2012)

The storms will organize into a line as they push Eastward through Eastern and Southeast Arkansas later in the evening. The main threat from the storms will be strong wind gusts, however, a brief large hail and tornado threat may take shape as the storms first begin to intensify over Central Arkansas.

 Later in the evening, a squall line will rapidly push across Eastern and Southeast Arkansas. Most storms will likely exit the State by about 10 PM

(Computer model projection for 10 PM Wed Oct 17 2012)

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Central Arkansas under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather for Wednesday.

(Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook for Wednesday Oct 17th - issued Tue Oct 16 1230PM)

Below is the severe threat associated with the storms for Wednesday evening. As the storms first begin to initiate there may be a few individual cells before the storms consolidate into a line. Given an environment of strong shear (changing wind speed/direction with height), these cells will begin to rotate leading to a hail/tornado threat. Once the storms organize into a line, strong straight line wind gusts will be the primary threat. Due to the fast movement of the cold front, flooding is unlikely

Although the severe threat will not last long due to the fast moving nature of the cold front, conditions will briefly come together for severe storms including tornadoes.  The front will also be associated with a strong jet stream moving into Arkansas Wednesday evening. At the same time, warm humid air will increase ahead of the front. The graphic below shows where the warm unstable air moves into an environment of strong upper level winds. 

(NAM model 250mb winds/Surface Based CAPE)

In addition, winds in the lower level of the atmosphere will be out of the South to Southwest while the winds aloft will be out of the West to Northwest. this creates the shear allowing for an environment in which storms can rotate. This is why there will be a brief tornado threat Wednesday evening as the storms begin to strengthen. 

Wednesday Evening Storms

A fast moving cold front will sweep into Arkansas Wednesday Afternoon bringing the risk of some strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of Wednesday will be dry, but storms will begin to fire up along the cold front by late afternoon. Storms should initiate around 4 PM and increase in coverage and intensity through the early evening.

(Computer model projection for 7 PM Wed Oct 17 2012)

The storms will organize into a line as they push Eastward through Eastern and Southeast Arkansas later in the evening. The main threat from the storms will be strong wind gusts, however, a brief large hail and tornado threat may take shape as the storms first begin to intensify over Central Arkansas. The main time frame for the greatest risk of severe weather for Central Arkansas will be between 4 PM and 8 PM, with the severe threat shifting into Eastern and Southeast Arkansas between 8PM and Midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Central Arkansas under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather for Wednesday.

(Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook for Wednesday Oct 17th - issued Mon Oct 15)

Well Hello Chilly Air

It's time to dust off those sweaters and long sleeves because a strong cold front is coming to town.

This is it like your run of the mill cold front either.  This is the kind of cold front that can turn the season around in a heart beat.  You can already make out from the image above that temperatures behind the front are struggling to reach the 40's and 50's up in the Dakotas.  That brisk, chilly air you see is aiming straight for Arkansas.

So you maybe asking yourself, when is it going to get here?  Judging by the latest trends and model data, the cold front should arrive sometime late Friday evening.  So you won't notice it on your way back from work tomorrow.  There is a chance though you might encounter a few showers and that chilly air while you're out for high school football games. If you head up north or west of Little Rock Friday evening then prepare yourself.

Once we fall behind the front Friday night, we'll have gusty winds  and you'll notice the refreshing cool air once you wake up for Saturday morning.  Speaking of which, Saturday overall looks wet and gloomy with temperatures not budging out of the 50's - Now that's a cold front for ya.  By Sunday, we'll see the sunshine come out but that will only boost temperatures close to 60 degrees.  Not to mention, next Monday morning looks downright cold and frosty with temperatures possibly reaching the upper 30's.

It goes without saying, this next front is going to be quite a change for us, so get those coats ready to go.