Hello, Summer

Riverfest is coming to an end...Memorial Day weekend is almost done...and if you haven't noticed our weather pattern is changing...in a good way.  In the last few days, our flow in the upper level of the atmosphere is shifting to a summer pattern.  A large upper level high pressure system is developing overhead.  This shift in the flow is leading to more sunshine and, of course, hotter temperatures.

MEMORIAL DAY: Similiar to the weekend, this Memorial Day will be hot and bright.  A few low lying clouds will surge into the southern border of Arkansas early in the morning but will fade away by the time you're heading out for lunch. Temperatures will make a run for the low 90's yet again.

REST OF THE WEEK: The upper level high pressure system I just mentioned will stick around for the short work week, so you can count on more sunshine and hot temperatures (mid 90's).  Heat index values will approach the century mark later in the week.  Keep that in mind if you plan on being outside for a lengthy period of time.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Here is a sneak peak of what to expect for the first weekend of June...I'm seeing signs from the models that the upper level high pressure system (or ridge) will eventually break down by Saturday allowing a small disturbance to slide in from the southeast on Sunday.  Since we'll have a good amount of moisture in place and some good old fashion daytime heating, we could see Mother Nature squeeze out some thunderstorms late on Sunday.  They don't look severe but they'll be a change of pace compared to what we'll go through this week.

That's it weather fans.  Enjoy the rest of your 3 day weekend and be safe out there.

Major Tornado Outbeak for Southern Plains

A major tornado outbreak is expected in Oklahoma and Kansas later today. The ingredients are in place for long-lived tornadoes and large hail in this region.

Meanwhile, in Arkansas we'll see a mixture of clouds and sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures will head for the mid upper 80's. A few isolated showers or storms may develop late this afternoon and early evening but they should not be incredibly strong and no where near the degree of the storms in the sooner state.

Like the past several days, the intense thunderstorms will form into a line and head for Northwest Arkansas tonight.  At this stage of the game the storms will begin to loose some of their tornadic characteristics and likely produce more of a straight line wind/large hail threat.

Tomorrow, more severe weather will impact the state.  Tornadoes, large hail and gusty winds are all on the table.  For more information you can check out the video at the top of this post.

Have a great day and be ready for strong thunderstorms until Wednesday night.

Strong Storms Approaching...

Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms are in the forecast today.  A surface low near Oklahoma and moderate lift in the upper levels of the atmosphere has resulted in numerous storms building across the Southern Plains.  Eventually these storms will trail into Arkansas early this afternoon.  Since there is moderate rotation at the low levels of the atmosphere there is the possibility of brief, short-lived tornadoes to develop mainly in Western Arkansas this afternoon and portions of Central Arkansas early this evening.

After the tornado threat passes tonight we'll be left with downpours and cooler temperatures in the 70's and 60's.  Since 1-3" of rain could fall in the next 12 hours, flash flooding could be an issue in a few remote areas in the state. Be sure to keep it tuned to FOX 16 for the latest information.

Mild Weather Lingers...

Temperatures will stay below normal for today. If you're wondering how the rest of the week will play out then check out the video.

Who Turned Off the Heat?

My goodness is it chilly outside or what...I'm sure folks weren't expecting to wear their jackets into the second weekend of May.

Well, from the looks of the satellite feed and the surface flow you can clearly see what's causing all of this cool weather.  An upper level low is parking itself around the Ohio Valley region.  Underneath the upper level low there is a surface that has dragged a strong cold front through the Deep South. In essence, our winds at the surface are carrying cool dry air from the Central Plains and dumping it on Arkansas.  Of course the low clouds are not helping it feel any warmer out there either.

TONIGHT: Temperatures will sink to the upper 40's and low 50's while the clouds break up.

TOMORROW:  Tomorrow we're getting indications from the models that we'll see a little more sunshine.  Well that sounds great, but it won't boost up our temperatures that much.  At this point, it appears we'll be stuck in the mid 60's in Central Arkansas - so dress accordingly.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:  The low level clouds will be gone and sunshine will take control for Monday and Tuesday.  Due to the northerly winds, we'll struggle to warm up quickly with high's in the 60's and low 70's.

LATER NEXT WEEK:  Southerly winds will return and that will force temperatures to rebound to the mid upper 70's.  Our upper level pattern will shift to a more active one as we reach Friday and the weekend.  Another upper level low will approach from the west and another frontal boundary will be on our door step.  Needless to say, all signs point to a wet outcome but it is hard to say if it will be severe.  We'll continue to monitor the progression of this upcoming storm system.

Until then have a great weekend and have those long sleeves handy.

A Preview of Summer

After 100+ tornado warnings and record flooding of White Lake, the weather in Arkansas is transferring over to a dry pattern.

Today marks the first time in several weeks that we hit the upper 80's.  In addition to the warmth, eastbound lanes of I-40 opened up thanks to the flood waters decreasing across Prairie County.  Tomorrow authorities may open the westbound lanes and put an end to the massive traffic delays.

As great as that may sound, I wouldn't get too comfortable with the weather outside. Mother Nature does have something up her sleeve later this week.  Wednesday night and into Thursday an upper level low will creep in from the northwest.  Near the surface, a low pressure system will venture into Missouri and drag a cold front close to us.  As the front approaches from the west it will carry scattered showers and thunderstorms into the state.  Along with the wet weather, there is a marginal chance of severe weather in Northwest Arkansas.

                                       (Weather model showing heavy rain and storms on Thursday)

After the storms, there is a lot of uncertainy when it comes to the weather for the weekend and next week.  Long term models like the GFS (Global model) and the ECMWF (European model) are all over the place.  One model wants to put us back into a warm, dry pattern while another wants to cut-off an upper level low force it down to the southeast portion of the country.  This would giving us cooler air and more clouds even possibly a few showers northeast.

My gut feeling is to side with the drier solution but we'll see how the upper air unfolds in the coming days.  Until then enjoy the summer heat.