Slow moving and poorly organized TD13 has formed in the North Central Gulf, which has been forecasted by computer models for several days now. Organization and strengthening of this system will be slow, however the slow movement means a substantial flood threat for much of the Gulf Coast.
5 day rainfall totals as forecast by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center could be in the range of 1 to 2 FEET for parts of SE Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Freshwater flooding is by far the greatest threat with this system, as it seems doubtful at this point that the system will be able to become a significant hurricane before moving onshore in the next 2 to 3 days. It should be noted, however, that if the center stays offshore longer than indicated in the official NHC forecast, the system could become stronger.
This is the forecast track from 10PM Thursday night, showing a very slow movement toward the coast, approaching the Louisiana coast late Sunday. Disorganized tropical systems caught in weak steering currents are notoriously difficult to forecast, and there is considerably uncertainty in the speed and track. In addition, the heaviest rainfall will likely not be right along the center, but rather North and East of the center of circulation. The remnants of the system will likely eventually get caught up in a frontal boundary by early next week and move Northeast along the front. This would keep the heavy rains mainly South and East of Arkansas, but a more Northerly track could bring some heavy bands of rain into the state Sunday and possibly into Labor Day.
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